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Tuesday 14th March
MAIN PLAYS
VALUE
3 UNITS WIN @ $7.50
Race 6 No 11 Mailman
3 UNITS WIN @ $6
Race 7 No 2 Storm Stride
2 Units WIN @ $4
Race 11 No 8 Only In Rome
ROUGHY
1 UNIT PLACE @ $11
Race 7 No 1 Triplets
SUMMARY:
Race 1:
These maiden races are usually hidden in race 12 of the night so its a tough way to start. Artisticbutnaughty would just need to bring his January form back here to go very close. His last 2 have been very poor though admittedly against better horses. The 2190m a big query but they could be running very slow times here. Wheresthestorm would need to show a lot more than he did on Saturday night at Broken Hill for me to entertain him. Even money favourite?!? The best 2 form horses are on the back row & I doubt having to work in the run will suit. Not much between them with Pink Scooter easily defeating My Ultimate Rusty with a better run. Im Stuck Man worth a mention but I cant see him winning from the draw unless he's able to somehow find the fence. Maybe something on 8 for fun at $7. Might drift from that quote too.
Race 2:
Moreartsthanclass I find hard to catch but it was a strong win in restricted at Broken Hill Saturday night & looks the leader again. This is much stronger though. Dougs Cino's chance hinge on whether he can cross early & no doubt Sanderson will be having a look. Beach Time was extremely unlucky first up at Mildura but may have looked worse than it was. A 61.2s last half & many horses were gasping for air late. $5 about the right price though. Carly Morgan 1st up & 1st up at Mildura too is a nooooooo for me. No doubt the class horse of the field but so many times Adelaide visitors are fancied from backrow draws here & fail. Does come here with a quick 2nd in a GD trial but this is a tough assignment from the draw. $2.30 is a crazy price IMO. Our Amazing Grace is first up & does her best racing in this grade. Happy to watch this race. A lay bet on Carly Morgan for the betfair players if the odds start with a $2 but a real low confidence race
Race 3:
A race of few chances. Beaudienesgold showed a liking for the Broken Hill track & a restricted race on the weekend. Tougher here but will either be leading or leaders back. Son Of Zodiac will be the one applying pressure from out wide & no surprise if they let him roll to the front. Thought he had his chance last start though & the 2190m is a query when working. Sylvia Kay an interesting runner first up for the Douglas camp. Form has just been ok but expect an improved run & could be too good. Early support suggests it'll run well too. Kitch Macray has had chances in much easier races than this. A chance to cross early but a minor place chance only. Village Lover a knock out hope especially if the 1 holds. Any further than leaders back will make life tough though. A watch race
Race 4
Interesting first 200 metres here with my old mate Rocking Wroxton & Beartastic Writer likely to going handle bars down. I reckon Beartastic Writer has the quicker point to point speed but its very hard to cross a gate speed horse directly to your inside at Mildura. How hard they burn will likely determine the outcome. I think the race sets up well for Flame Blaster as long as he isn't stranded in the breeze. Into his right price now though. Startup an interesting runner 1st up here. Good form in NSW for a race like this & has been a little bit of money for him. Wont have any of mine on though. Working around 1,2 & 3 here with little confidence again!
Race 5:
This lines up to be a ripping race this one likely to get Luke up & about. Holzhauer will be likely 1st to the fence but Filcarlo will try & push up. Half Moon Beach has great early speed & I doubt either will be able to hold him out. Once he leads Half Moon, he pulls hard & that'll set up & strong tempo here. I actually think he's a better chance if they restrain early & left for one run at them but you have to go on recent tactics. Treacherous Saint likely to be the first one to the death & he'll be doing his fair share of work to get there before Coco Beach takes off mid race. I cant see Boris driving Coco Beach any other way. Could be a few struggling late & it may be the horse with the right run at the right time that wins this & I actually think all bar 1 can win - even Call Me Henry at triple figures! If Im pushed, something ew Holzhauer when he gets out to double figures. More the place than win.
Race 6:
These 4yo and older restricted prizemoney races can be deceiving at times with high graded horses having to work hard from back row draws against the lower grade & this is a another example. Mailman is that horse here. Raced in the Mildura Cup last year & returned with a very good 2nd against the fast class last time. The snipers took the $13 very quickly but $7.50 is still overs. With luck he wins but he will have his challenges from the draw. Kate Attard has All Da Rage low flying & he keeps producing when stepping up in grade. This is another hard task I think Mailman is the better horse. Jaccka Connor is another working through his class & looks to have plenty of upside & the draw advantage here. I think the Mildura track is a big query though. Raced very unattractable at Swan Hill last time & ultimately that cost him the race. Happy to play Mailman here & hopefully no roadblocks are in the way late
BET: 3 units WIN Mailman @ $7.50
Race 7:
Storm Stride, maybe a slight query up in class over the 2190m. He's got the gate speed to lead but this is harder than last time. One to beat if he holds the lead though. Avoca Blues will be pushing hard to lead but his chances are gone if he cant. Sir Roman & Feisty Phoebe will love the drop in class but have poor draws. Sir Roman has been smashed in early betting so expect him to be pushing forward early to try & dictate from the death. Triplets a sneaky place chance at huge odds first up even though better place at a lower grade.
BET: 3 UNITS WIn Strom Stride @ $6
1 UNIT PLACE Triplets @ $11
Race 8
Might be best drive wins this between Rick Reilly and Sahara Tiger. Both horses love the track & it should be a ripping race late. Bernie Winkle isnt the same horse of 2 seasons ago but knock out chance if everything goes right.
Race 9
Not keen here - moving on quickly.
Race 10
Not keen here either!
Race 11
Speed on early here & who knows what the tactics will be on Robert Crocka. I'm leaning towards them holding which will guarantee a solid pace early. Rays Daughter will be pushing hard from out wide & is a huge chance if the lead is there. I think the safer bet is Only In Rome. Down in class after death seating & tiring last time. Get a nice trail through early & if they've overdone it early he's the one I want to be on.
BET: 2 UNITS WIN ONLY IN ROME
Race 12:
If the same Dallas Miki turns up as last time it wins again but I couldn't take odds on.
3 UNITS WIN @ $7.50
Race 6 No 11 Mailman
3 UNITS WIN @ $6
Race 7 No 2 Storm Stride
2 Units WIN @ $4
Race 11 No 8 Only In Rome
ROUGHY
1 UNIT PLACE @ $11
Race 7 No 1 Triplets
SUMMARY:
Race 1:
These maiden races are usually hidden in race 12 of the night so its a tough way to start. Artisticbutnaughty would just need to bring his January form back here to go very close. His last 2 have been very poor though admittedly against better horses. The 2190m a big query but they could be running very slow times here. Wheresthestorm would need to show a lot more than he did on Saturday night at Broken Hill for me to entertain him. Even money favourite?!? The best 2 form horses are on the back row & I doubt having to work in the run will suit. Not much between them with Pink Scooter easily defeating My Ultimate Rusty with a better run. Im Stuck Man worth a mention but I cant see him winning from the draw unless he's able to somehow find the fence. Maybe something on 8 for fun at $7. Might drift from that quote too.
Race 2:
Moreartsthanclass I find hard to catch but it was a strong win in restricted at Broken Hill Saturday night & looks the leader again. This is much stronger though. Dougs Cino's chance hinge on whether he can cross early & no doubt Sanderson will be having a look. Beach Time was extremely unlucky first up at Mildura but may have looked worse than it was. A 61.2s last half & many horses were gasping for air late. $5 about the right price though. Carly Morgan 1st up & 1st up at Mildura too is a nooooooo for me. No doubt the class horse of the field but so many times Adelaide visitors are fancied from backrow draws here & fail. Does come here with a quick 2nd in a GD trial but this is a tough assignment from the draw. $2.30 is a crazy price IMO. Our Amazing Grace is first up & does her best racing in this grade. Happy to watch this race. A lay bet on Carly Morgan for the betfair players if the odds start with a $2 but a real low confidence race
Race 3:
A race of few chances. Beaudienesgold showed a liking for the Broken Hill track & a restricted race on the weekend. Tougher here but will either be leading or leaders back. Son Of Zodiac will be the one applying pressure from out wide & no surprise if they let him roll to the front. Thought he had his chance last start though & the 2190m is a query when working. Sylvia Kay an interesting runner first up for the Douglas camp. Form has just been ok but expect an improved run & could be too good. Early support suggests it'll run well too. Kitch Macray has had chances in much easier races than this. A chance to cross early but a minor place chance only. Village Lover a knock out hope especially if the 1 holds. Any further than leaders back will make life tough though. A watch race
Race 4
Interesting first 200 metres here with my old mate Rocking Wroxton & Beartastic Writer likely to going handle bars down. I reckon Beartastic Writer has the quicker point to point speed but its very hard to cross a gate speed horse directly to your inside at Mildura. How hard they burn will likely determine the outcome. I think the race sets up well for Flame Blaster as long as he isn't stranded in the breeze. Into his right price now though. Startup an interesting runner 1st up here. Good form in NSW for a race like this & has been a little bit of money for him. Wont have any of mine on though. Working around 1,2 & 3 here with little confidence again!
Race 5:
This lines up to be a ripping race this one likely to get Luke up & about. Holzhauer will be likely 1st to the fence but Filcarlo will try & push up. Half Moon Beach has great early speed & I doubt either will be able to hold him out. Once he leads Half Moon, he pulls hard & that'll set up & strong tempo here. I actually think he's a better chance if they restrain early & left for one run at them but you have to go on recent tactics. Treacherous Saint likely to be the first one to the death & he'll be doing his fair share of work to get there before Coco Beach takes off mid race. I cant see Boris driving Coco Beach any other way. Could be a few struggling late & it may be the horse with the right run at the right time that wins this & I actually think all bar 1 can win - even Call Me Henry at triple figures! If Im pushed, something ew Holzhauer when he gets out to double figures. More the place than win.
Race 6:
These 4yo and older restricted prizemoney races can be deceiving at times with high graded horses having to work hard from back row draws against the lower grade & this is a another example. Mailman is that horse here. Raced in the Mildura Cup last year & returned with a very good 2nd against the fast class last time. The snipers took the $13 very quickly but $7.50 is still overs. With luck he wins but he will have his challenges from the draw. Kate Attard has All Da Rage low flying & he keeps producing when stepping up in grade. This is another hard task I think Mailman is the better horse. Jaccka Connor is another working through his class & looks to have plenty of upside & the draw advantage here. I think the Mildura track is a big query though. Raced very unattractable at Swan Hill last time & ultimately that cost him the race. Happy to play Mailman here & hopefully no roadblocks are in the way late
BET: 3 units WIN Mailman @ $7.50
Race 7:
Storm Stride, maybe a slight query up in class over the 2190m. He's got the gate speed to lead but this is harder than last time. One to beat if he holds the lead though. Avoca Blues will be pushing hard to lead but his chances are gone if he cant. Sir Roman & Feisty Phoebe will love the drop in class but have poor draws. Sir Roman has been smashed in early betting so expect him to be pushing forward early to try & dictate from the death. Triplets a sneaky place chance at huge odds first up even though better place at a lower grade.
BET: 3 UNITS WIn Strom Stride @ $6
1 UNIT PLACE Triplets @ $11
Race 8
Might be best drive wins this between Rick Reilly and Sahara Tiger. Both horses love the track & it should be a ripping race late. Bernie Winkle isnt the same horse of 2 seasons ago but knock out chance if everything goes right.
Race 9
Not keen here - moving on quickly.
Race 10
Not keen here either!
Race 11
Speed on early here & who knows what the tactics will be on Robert Crocka. I'm leaning towards them holding which will guarantee a solid pace early. Rays Daughter will be pushing hard from out wide & is a huge chance if the lead is there. I think the safer bet is Only In Rome. Down in class after death seating & tiring last time. Get a nice trail through early & if they've overdone it early he's the one I want to be on.
BET: 2 UNITS WIN ONLY IN ROME
Race 12:
If the same Dallas Miki turns up as last time it wins again but I couldn't take odds on.
