JUNE 24th SUMMARY
June 17th
MAIN PLAYS
BEST
None
VALUE
Race 2 No 3 Flame Blaster (2x3EW)
Race 7 No 6 Blue Cannon (2x3EW)
ROUGHIES
Race 2 No 7 Dontshowyouraces (1x4EW)
Race 4 No 7 Oh So Easy (1x4EW)
BEST
None
VALUE
Race 2 No 3 Flame Blaster (2x3EW)
Race 7 No 6 Blue Cannon (2x3EW)
ROUGHIES
Race 2 No 7 Dontshowyouraces (1x4EW)
Race 4 No 7 Oh So Easy (1x4EW)
FULL SUMMARY
Race 1: 1790m NR up to 50
Some slow horses engaged in this one - my kind of race! Looks to be advantage to the maiden Beaudinesgold who's best races have been over the 1790m when able to find a pegs run. Only had 9 starts so still finding out what this racing caper is all about but expect her to find the pegs first & get every chance especially with Ellen onboard. She just rates them so well around here. The Battle We Face is first up for Albie but I can't have it based on what Ive seen at the trials. Not sure what to make of Hesastar first up in Vic without a trial.
Suggested Bet: 2xEW Beaudinesgold
Race 2: 2190m
Good race this one with a heap of chances. Shadow Terror has never raced better and looks the leader again from the pole draw. Flame Blaster will be thereabouts again with a good run, Ozzie Daybreak will be pushing across yet again from his bad draw & run his usual honest race. Im happy to leave out those from the backrow which might be a little dangerous apart from Dontshowyouraces. Never got a look at them from a pegs run last week at 150-1 and looked to have plenty to give. Problem is his gate manners & I'm not sure he'll hold leaders back. If he can he'll run a cheeky race. Flame Blaster I can see sneaking in behind the leader from his draw as Seeking Amnesty is typically slow out & Wayne Hill does his form better than most drivers & will know that scenario is up for grabs. Im taking on Shadow Terror again & I might regret it.
Suggested Bets: 2x3EW Flame Blaster, 1x4EW Dontshowyouraces (very small win bet No 7)
Race 3: 1790m
Steal Some Time looks to get her chance here but Im a little concerned her last run looked better to the eye than it actually was. Got checked & broke from 1x3 but they slowed the next quarter to 33.5 so she didnt have to work too hard to catch up to the field again & she past tired horses only late. Still, a good run from a mare of her class. Hanover Jack is consistent as ever but struggles to win, unless chasing Rays Daughter! He'll be in the finish again. Overreation is your leader but is looking for the 1200m races at Port Perry. Just struggles to finish off up the straight. I wouldn't be surprised if they drove Chalkncheddar aggressively from the draw over the short but he's been disappointing around here of late & if the pace is on, anything can win this.
Suggested Bet: None
Race 4: 2190m
Its advantage Tact Tory again from the draw & the extra distance is no worry. Not a horse that I'm keen to take red figures about though. I thought Oh So Easy shouldve finished much closer last week after being held up until the straight & it's the only last 100m you can see him on screen and he was finishing strongly. Should hold Tact Torys back & he'll have his chance late & we'll find out if he is any good. Worth a roll at $20+. Gojoe will have to do it tough from the death most likely but can win & Redbank Rockabear is usually better with a run under his belt & the draw hurts but is the best horse in this race.
Suggested Bet: 1x4EW Oh So Easy
Race 5: 1790m
Real interesting race this one with all the front line go forward horses & some of these are eligible for easier races than this. Im expecting one of the back row horses to be too strong here, probably Delightful Nikky the one that should be winning if she gets a start but Im not keen on this race at all.
Suggested Bets: None
Race 6: 2190m
Nearly fell into Classic Reactor in this but Robert Crocka on his outside will lead & very likely to hand up. If he doesn't, I dont think Robert Crocka is capable of leading and winning over the 2190m unless they slow to a walk in the 1st half so if they try that might mean disaster for Classic Reactor but my map has him needing luck from 3 pegs. Have to respect Robert Crocka and Ryan Sanderson drives him very well. Jack Laugher on Blue Cannon I like. His aggressive style is going to suit the horse. Nothing went right in a stronger race last week & the 2190m is going to allow him to balance up and be put into the race when it suits. $8 on TAB when writing this he's backable ew but I thought he should be at least half those odds. Waiting For You is a horse I just cant catch but is right in this especially following through Robert Crocka & is the right favourite.
Suggested Bet: BEST VALUE 2x3EW Blue Cannon
Race 7: 1790m
No bet
Race 8: 2190m
Everything in this race is a chance to win apart from Canada Bay. Should be a ripping race to watch but not keen to bet
Race 9: 1790m
Overpowering is racing extremely well and looks the leader here. Gets his chance to win again. Van Niekerk could blow these away. Been racing against better horses & has raced well here before. Heart Of Cooper the best class horse in the race but still needs more racing.
Suggested Bet: None. I couldn't split Overpowering & Van Niekerk
Race 10: 2190m
The extra distance makes this interesting with many of these 3yos still finding their feet. Hereshecomessassy will have the advantage in front. Has great early gate speed & the question will be can she hold on over the extra distance. How easy she leads might be the key to that & how long it takes Tooby Gold to find the death. That horse was very impressive winning last time from the death beating Hereshecomessasy hands down. 2190m might be the difference here. Shallow Pockets the best roughy in this. Not far away from these horses and I think the 2190m suits him better than most of these. Just cant be crossed by the 2 early otherwise he's in big trouble. Guaranteed Secret will continue to improves for the Prothero's but I can have her from the draw even though the small field probably suits.
Suggested Bet: Another race Im not keen on but something small ew on Shallow Pockets
Race 11: 2190m
Another tough race. If Im pushed to tip maybe something Heza Western from the best draw he's had in a very long time. His form is much better than what it looks on paper.
Suggested Bet: 2x3EW Heza Western
Race 12: 2190m
Not keen on this race at all. This might be the slowest front line ever seen in the history of racing at Mildura. Whatever leads won't be that used to being in fronts that for sure, excluding the Broken Hill Springfield Shadow. With that being said, expect the usually early Albie 3 wide move to try & catch them napping & thats very possible on Another Sparky who can sprint better than most of these in a short spurt. $1.65 in early markets though is ridiculous. Not keen.
Suggested Bet: None
Some slow horses engaged in this one - my kind of race! Looks to be advantage to the maiden Beaudinesgold who's best races have been over the 1790m when able to find a pegs run. Only had 9 starts so still finding out what this racing caper is all about but expect her to find the pegs first & get every chance especially with Ellen onboard. She just rates them so well around here. The Battle We Face is first up for Albie but I can't have it based on what Ive seen at the trials. Not sure what to make of Hesastar first up in Vic without a trial.
Suggested Bet: 2xEW Beaudinesgold
Race 2: 2190m
Good race this one with a heap of chances. Shadow Terror has never raced better and looks the leader again from the pole draw. Flame Blaster will be thereabouts again with a good run, Ozzie Daybreak will be pushing across yet again from his bad draw & run his usual honest race. Im happy to leave out those from the backrow which might be a little dangerous apart from Dontshowyouraces. Never got a look at them from a pegs run last week at 150-1 and looked to have plenty to give. Problem is his gate manners & I'm not sure he'll hold leaders back. If he can he'll run a cheeky race. Flame Blaster I can see sneaking in behind the leader from his draw as Seeking Amnesty is typically slow out & Wayne Hill does his form better than most drivers & will know that scenario is up for grabs. Im taking on Shadow Terror again & I might regret it.
Suggested Bets: 2x3EW Flame Blaster, 1x4EW Dontshowyouraces (very small win bet No 7)
Race 3: 1790m
Steal Some Time looks to get her chance here but Im a little concerned her last run looked better to the eye than it actually was. Got checked & broke from 1x3 but they slowed the next quarter to 33.5 so she didnt have to work too hard to catch up to the field again & she past tired horses only late. Still, a good run from a mare of her class. Hanover Jack is consistent as ever but struggles to win, unless chasing Rays Daughter! He'll be in the finish again. Overreation is your leader but is looking for the 1200m races at Port Perry. Just struggles to finish off up the straight. I wouldn't be surprised if they drove Chalkncheddar aggressively from the draw over the short but he's been disappointing around here of late & if the pace is on, anything can win this.
Suggested Bet: None
Race 4: 2190m
Its advantage Tact Tory again from the draw & the extra distance is no worry. Not a horse that I'm keen to take red figures about though. I thought Oh So Easy shouldve finished much closer last week after being held up until the straight & it's the only last 100m you can see him on screen and he was finishing strongly. Should hold Tact Torys back & he'll have his chance late & we'll find out if he is any good. Worth a roll at $20+. Gojoe will have to do it tough from the death most likely but can win & Redbank Rockabear is usually better with a run under his belt & the draw hurts but is the best horse in this race.
Suggested Bet: 1x4EW Oh So Easy
Race 5: 1790m
Real interesting race this one with all the front line go forward horses & some of these are eligible for easier races than this. Im expecting one of the back row horses to be too strong here, probably Delightful Nikky the one that should be winning if she gets a start but Im not keen on this race at all.
Suggested Bets: None
Race 6: 2190m
Nearly fell into Classic Reactor in this but Robert Crocka on his outside will lead & very likely to hand up. If he doesn't, I dont think Robert Crocka is capable of leading and winning over the 2190m unless they slow to a walk in the 1st half so if they try that might mean disaster for Classic Reactor but my map has him needing luck from 3 pegs. Have to respect Robert Crocka and Ryan Sanderson drives him very well. Jack Laugher on Blue Cannon I like. His aggressive style is going to suit the horse. Nothing went right in a stronger race last week & the 2190m is going to allow him to balance up and be put into the race when it suits. $8 on TAB when writing this he's backable ew but I thought he should be at least half those odds. Waiting For You is a horse I just cant catch but is right in this especially following through Robert Crocka & is the right favourite.
Suggested Bet: BEST VALUE 2x3EW Blue Cannon
Race 7: 1790m
No bet
Race 8: 2190m
Everything in this race is a chance to win apart from Canada Bay. Should be a ripping race to watch but not keen to bet
Race 9: 1790m
Overpowering is racing extremely well and looks the leader here. Gets his chance to win again. Van Niekerk could blow these away. Been racing against better horses & has raced well here before. Heart Of Cooper the best class horse in the race but still needs more racing.
Suggested Bet: None. I couldn't split Overpowering & Van Niekerk
Race 10: 2190m
The extra distance makes this interesting with many of these 3yos still finding their feet. Hereshecomessassy will have the advantage in front. Has great early gate speed & the question will be can she hold on over the extra distance. How easy she leads might be the key to that & how long it takes Tooby Gold to find the death. That horse was very impressive winning last time from the death beating Hereshecomessasy hands down. 2190m might be the difference here. Shallow Pockets the best roughy in this. Not far away from these horses and I think the 2190m suits him better than most of these. Just cant be crossed by the 2 early otherwise he's in big trouble. Guaranteed Secret will continue to improves for the Prothero's but I can have her from the draw even though the small field probably suits.
Suggested Bet: Another race Im not keen on but something small ew on Shallow Pockets
Race 11: 2190m
Another tough race. If Im pushed to tip maybe something Heza Western from the best draw he's had in a very long time. His form is much better than what it looks on paper.
Suggested Bet: 2x3EW Heza Western
Race 12: 2190m
Not keen on this race at all. This might be the slowest front line ever seen in the history of racing at Mildura. Whatever leads won't be that used to being in fronts that for sure, excluding the Broken Hill Springfield Shadow. With that being said, expect the usually early Albie 3 wide move to try & catch them napping & thats very possible on Another Sparky who can sprint better than most of these in a short spurt. $1.65 in early markets though is ridiculous. Not keen.
Suggested Bet: None
Friday June 10th
BEST VALUE
Race 6 No 7 Southern Burgundy
BEST ROUGHIES
Race 1 No 1 Golden Scribe (1x4EW)
Race 8 No 1 Starvin Marvin (1x4EW)
Race 6 No 7 Southern Burgundy
BEST ROUGHIES
Race 1 No 1 Golden Scribe (1x4EW)
Race 8 No 1 Starvin Marvin (1x4EW)
SUMMARY
Race 1: 2190m
A lot of these will struggle over the 2190m so Im not expecting much pressure on here. Hoping Mista Pumblechook can hold & Golden Scribe has enough speed to hold leaders back. Golden Scribe has been racing over a distance he struggles the 1790m, back the the 2190m and if the predicted slow pace occurs he'll settle where he needs to be. Will just need a gap late but worth a punt at double figure odds
Suggested Bet: Golden Scribe 1x4EW
Race 2: 1790m
Wasnt sure what to do with this race. Winnedou looks to push through & hold out Only In Rome & Overreaction who will be pushing the hardest from out wide. If they go mad then that really opens this one up & its anyones race. Im staying out
Suggested Bet: None
Race 3: 2190m
Another low rating 2190m and many of these will be gasping for air late. It really is a lottery. Lets Go Exclusive looks your leader and its going to rely on leading & walking them as slow as possible. Thought Lady Monica was a chance from the draw if holds leaders back. Id rather be on it at double figure odds than Lets Go Exclusive as favourite. Low confidence race.
Suggested Bet: Lady Monica 1x4 EW
Race 4: 1790m
Might be an in play race bet this one. If James Charles crosses Tact Tory does he hand up to Rocking Wroxton? If yes, I'm chips in Rocking Wroxton. They wont beat him from the front. However, if the lead isn't there this becomes a real open race.
Suggested Bet: WIN Rocking Wroxton Betfair in play if leads
Race 5: 2190m
If my speed map is wrong here Im in trouble. I thought Mods has the best speed of the front line & is likely to hand up to the stablemate Jordie Dee over the 2190m & both are racing well enough to win this. Rays Daughter.......I still cant believe it couldn't win last week but it'll be thereabouts but likely to start too short. Our Holla Star was a forgive run after death seating last week. A better sit sprinter but looks unders from the back row. I thought Jordie Dee was the better suited of the 2 Vozlic runners over the 2190m
Suggested Bet: 2x3 EW Jordie Dee
Race 6: 1790m
The start is vital to the result of the race, usually is around here, but Im mighty keen on Southern Burgundy IF she can hold This Is Bills back. The problem is Lovin Everyday is likley to push hard for the first 200m or so & will that be enough to open up a gap on the leaders back? Thought her run was real good last week & all is not lost even if shes 3 pegs as it's the type of run she loves. This Is Bill just seems to find one better around here & I can see that being the case here again especially if there are a couple of moves in the race which can fire this fella up in front. Taking a risk here & hoping Southern Burgundy can hold leaders back.
Suggested Bet: WIN Southern Burgundy
Race 7: 2190m
Staying out of this one
Race 8: 2190m
Thought Starvin Marvin could run a real cheeky race back in a rating class that he won 4 starts back, although this has arguably more depth than that race. Been up in class and not disgraced lately. Im happy to have a bet on an ew basis. Dadndave Im worried about making the trip up from Melton. Has to be under the odds from the draw but is well suited in this class. A lot of the rest will need a bit to go right to win.
Suggested Bet: 1x4EW Starvin Marvin
Race 9: 1790m
United led & won easily last week but expect there to be much more pressure mid race here. Blue Cannon was real impressive winning last time & I reckon there was improvement to come from that run. Cant underestimate Overpowering either who fought hard to win from the death last week. Then you have Mr Perfect and Id dare say he's the main reason why Mr Jack is in town. Broke a track record when leading around Echuca first up (i think) so a repeat of that will distroy these BUT strange things happen to horse at their first look around Mildura. Isitwrongtobeexcited is the class runner outside of Mr Perfect & he looks over the odds even from the bad draw.
Suggested Bet: Really hesitant to take on Mr Perfect but $1.28 TAB is ridiculous odds. Something 1x4EW Isitwrongtobeexcited
Race 10: 2190m
Hard to know what Bet On The Tiger (good name!) will do as my NZ form is horrible but its well in the market & have to respect. Guaranteed Secret was a forgive run last week & again, not sure where she gets to in the run again 1st up for the Prothero's. Miki Mohoney Im happy to risk but can fly the gate. The one that interests me at big odds is Classic Reactor. I think he'll sit 3 pegs & the tempo he is likely to be good throughout. Certainly not a confident bet but I can see him being the one that could run a cheeky run at odds off a soft run
Suggested Bet: 1x4EW Classic Reactor
Race 11: 2190m
Another race where the 2190m might sort a few out. Charging Bull was impressive winning from the death at Globe Derby earlier in the week but last time he raced over this distance was found wanting. Fomo finally gets a draw but can do a few things wrong early but has been crying out for luck lately & has got none. $11 early is too good not to have something on. Ozzie Daybreak Id rather see in front but follows through Fomo & should sit handy enough to them. He's the one you want to be on if they are gasping for air late.
Suggested Bet: EW on Fomo, WIN bet Ozzie Daybreak
Race 12: 2190m
Tough race to finish off on but thought Shesa Pearla finds a nice class race here & I have to have something on even from the bad draw.
Suggested Bet: WIN Shesa Pearla
A lot of these will struggle over the 2190m so Im not expecting much pressure on here. Hoping Mista Pumblechook can hold & Golden Scribe has enough speed to hold leaders back. Golden Scribe has been racing over a distance he struggles the 1790m, back the the 2190m and if the predicted slow pace occurs he'll settle where he needs to be. Will just need a gap late but worth a punt at double figure odds
Suggested Bet: Golden Scribe 1x4EW
Race 2: 1790m
Wasnt sure what to do with this race. Winnedou looks to push through & hold out Only In Rome & Overreaction who will be pushing the hardest from out wide. If they go mad then that really opens this one up & its anyones race. Im staying out
Suggested Bet: None
Race 3: 2190m
Another low rating 2190m and many of these will be gasping for air late. It really is a lottery. Lets Go Exclusive looks your leader and its going to rely on leading & walking them as slow as possible. Thought Lady Monica was a chance from the draw if holds leaders back. Id rather be on it at double figure odds than Lets Go Exclusive as favourite. Low confidence race.
Suggested Bet: Lady Monica 1x4 EW
Race 4: 1790m
Might be an in play race bet this one. If James Charles crosses Tact Tory does he hand up to Rocking Wroxton? If yes, I'm chips in Rocking Wroxton. They wont beat him from the front. However, if the lead isn't there this becomes a real open race.
Suggested Bet: WIN Rocking Wroxton Betfair in play if leads
Race 5: 2190m
If my speed map is wrong here Im in trouble. I thought Mods has the best speed of the front line & is likely to hand up to the stablemate Jordie Dee over the 2190m & both are racing well enough to win this. Rays Daughter.......I still cant believe it couldn't win last week but it'll be thereabouts but likely to start too short. Our Holla Star was a forgive run after death seating last week. A better sit sprinter but looks unders from the back row. I thought Jordie Dee was the better suited of the 2 Vozlic runners over the 2190m
Suggested Bet: 2x3 EW Jordie Dee
Race 6: 1790m
The start is vital to the result of the race, usually is around here, but Im mighty keen on Southern Burgundy IF she can hold This Is Bills back. The problem is Lovin Everyday is likley to push hard for the first 200m or so & will that be enough to open up a gap on the leaders back? Thought her run was real good last week & all is not lost even if shes 3 pegs as it's the type of run she loves. This Is Bill just seems to find one better around here & I can see that being the case here again especially if there are a couple of moves in the race which can fire this fella up in front. Taking a risk here & hoping Southern Burgundy can hold leaders back.
Suggested Bet: WIN Southern Burgundy
Race 7: 2190m
Staying out of this one
Race 8: 2190m
Thought Starvin Marvin could run a real cheeky race back in a rating class that he won 4 starts back, although this has arguably more depth than that race. Been up in class and not disgraced lately. Im happy to have a bet on an ew basis. Dadndave Im worried about making the trip up from Melton. Has to be under the odds from the draw but is well suited in this class. A lot of the rest will need a bit to go right to win.
Suggested Bet: 1x4EW Starvin Marvin
Race 9: 1790m
United led & won easily last week but expect there to be much more pressure mid race here. Blue Cannon was real impressive winning last time & I reckon there was improvement to come from that run. Cant underestimate Overpowering either who fought hard to win from the death last week. Then you have Mr Perfect and Id dare say he's the main reason why Mr Jack is in town. Broke a track record when leading around Echuca first up (i think) so a repeat of that will distroy these BUT strange things happen to horse at their first look around Mildura. Isitwrongtobeexcited is the class runner outside of Mr Perfect & he looks over the odds even from the bad draw.
Suggested Bet: Really hesitant to take on Mr Perfect but $1.28 TAB is ridiculous odds. Something 1x4EW Isitwrongtobeexcited
Race 10: 2190m
Hard to know what Bet On The Tiger (good name!) will do as my NZ form is horrible but its well in the market & have to respect. Guaranteed Secret was a forgive run last week & again, not sure where she gets to in the run again 1st up for the Prothero's. Miki Mohoney Im happy to risk but can fly the gate. The one that interests me at big odds is Classic Reactor. I think he'll sit 3 pegs & the tempo he is likely to be good throughout. Certainly not a confident bet but I can see him being the one that could run a cheeky run at odds off a soft run
Suggested Bet: 1x4EW Classic Reactor
Race 11: 2190m
Another race where the 2190m might sort a few out. Charging Bull was impressive winning from the death at Globe Derby earlier in the week but last time he raced over this distance was found wanting. Fomo finally gets a draw but can do a few things wrong early but has been crying out for luck lately & has got none. $11 early is too good not to have something on. Ozzie Daybreak Id rather see in front but follows through Fomo & should sit handy enough to them. He's the one you want to be on if they are gasping for air late.
Suggested Bet: EW on Fomo, WIN bet Ozzie Daybreak
Race 12: 2190m
Tough race to finish off on but thought Shesa Pearla finds a nice class race here & I have to have something on even from the bad draw.
Suggested Bet: WIN Shesa Pearla
Friday June 3rd
BEST BET:
Race 9 No 5 Rays Daughter
BEST ROUGHY
Race 2 No 2 Our Holla Star 1x4EW
Race 9 No 5 Rays Daughter
BEST ROUGHY
Race 2 No 2 Our Holla Star 1x4EW
MEETING SUMMARY
Race 1: No bets
Race 2:
Likely leader here is This Is Bill & he's probably the right favourite from that position but I couldn't take the likely odds on quote on offer. Thought that Our Holla Star shouldve finished a lot closer last time & this is another step down in grade. Only his 3rd start for Naomi Kerr whose team is racing extremely well. Hoping he lands 1x1 but likely to be 1x3 in the run. Just needs a couple of things to fall his way to be a big chance at odds.
Suggested Bet: 1x4EW Our Holla Star
Race 3:
Expect a better run from Shesa Pearla her 2nd up at Mildura. Query will be whether she can hold the lead but even leaders but wont the worst behind Gigis Grinner. Dougs Cino is a huge chance in this especially if Shesa Pearla can hold but it'll get tough from 3 pegs. Last time I looked it was $4.20 and thats a short quote considering he could be 3 pegs. Major Comment, stablemate of Gigis Grinner could make things interesting & it wouldn't surprise if the stablemate handed up meekly. Sir Jujon was a bit disappointing last time & looks unders at the $3.50 mark from the draw. Too many if's in this race to bet confidently for me.
Suggested Bet: Something EW Shesa Pearla
Race 4:
Whilst I think Deaken Avenue is better suited over the 2190m she looks very nicely suited here. Won a similar grade race over the Cup carnival over the 2190m. You have to put a bit of faith into Alby in the cart here as it's unlikely he'll leader back and need a way clear but there does look to be good pace in this with Longtan Cassonova drawn 6 pushing both Shazzam & Overpowering with Shazzam likely to hold. Happy to hope for luck with Deakin Avenue
Suggested Bet: WIN Deakin Avenue
Race 5:
Speed & high speed from United & Glam Rock early & thats something that has brought United undone before as he can get real fired up if he's dug up early. Ayejayem looks short in the market considering if they burn early I dont think he'll keep leaders back. Im happy to have a play on the 2 runners that look suited in this grade, Waiting For You & Be A Good Scout. I haven't been able to catch either in recent times but they look very well graded against these. Small play though as Im relying on United firing up early & puling his head off & if that doesnt happen, he's likely to win this from the front.
Suggested Bets: Win Waiting For You & Be A Good Scout
Race 6 - 8: No Bets
Race 9:
Tonight is the night for Rays Daughter. I think Wayne Hill will be real aggressive with her early & I think the lead is his if Wayne wants. From there she is the one to beat. Shes held with form really well over the past 6 weeks & just looks beautifully placed against these. I could be very wrong especially if Rocknroll Ranger is better than I think. He finished off impressively to win from leaders back last time but its a much different story from this draw. Happy to take on Falcons Lad from the draw whose best runs have been on pegs up on speed at Globe Derby. That wont be happening here.
Suggested Bet: BEST OF THE NIGHT - WIN Rays Daughter
Race 10 & 11: No Bet
Race 2:
Likely leader here is This Is Bill & he's probably the right favourite from that position but I couldn't take the likely odds on quote on offer. Thought that Our Holla Star shouldve finished a lot closer last time & this is another step down in grade. Only his 3rd start for Naomi Kerr whose team is racing extremely well. Hoping he lands 1x1 but likely to be 1x3 in the run. Just needs a couple of things to fall his way to be a big chance at odds.
Suggested Bet: 1x4EW Our Holla Star
Race 3:
Expect a better run from Shesa Pearla her 2nd up at Mildura. Query will be whether she can hold the lead but even leaders but wont the worst behind Gigis Grinner. Dougs Cino is a huge chance in this especially if Shesa Pearla can hold but it'll get tough from 3 pegs. Last time I looked it was $4.20 and thats a short quote considering he could be 3 pegs. Major Comment, stablemate of Gigis Grinner could make things interesting & it wouldn't surprise if the stablemate handed up meekly. Sir Jujon was a bit disappointing last time & looks unders at the $3.50 mark from the draw. Too many if's in this race to bet confidently for me.
Suggested Bet: Something EW Shesa Pearla
Race 4:
Whilst I think Deaken Avenue is better suited over the 2190m she looks very nicely suited here. Won a similar grade race over the Cup carnival over the 2190m. You have to put a bit of faith into Alby in the cart here as it's unlikely he'll leader back and need a way clear but there does look to be good pace in this with Longtan Cassonova drawn 6 pushing both Shazzam & Overpowering with Shazzam likely to hold. Happy to hope for luck with Deakin Avenue
Suggested Bet: WIN Deakin Avenue
Race 5:
Speed & high speed from United & Glam Rock early & thats something that has brought United undone before as he can get real fired up if he's dug up early. Ayejayem looks short in the market considering if they burn early I dont think he'll keep leaders back. Im happy to have a play on the 2 runners that look suited in this grade, Waiting For You & Be A Good Scout. I haven't been able to catch either in recent times but they look very well graded against these. Small play though as Im relying on United firing up early & puling his head off & if that doesnt happen, he's likely to win this from the front.
Suggested Bets: Win Waiting For You & Be A Good Scout
Race 6 - 8: No Bets
Race 9:
Tonight is the night for Rays Daughter. I think Wayne Hill will be real aggressive with her early & I think the lead is his if Wayne wants. From there she is the one to beat. Shes held with form really well over the past 6 weeks & just looks beautifully placed against these. I could be very wrong especially if Rocknroll Ranger is better than I think. He finished off impressively to win from leaders back last time but its a much different story from this draw. Happy to take on Falcons Lad from the draw whose best runs have been on pegs up on speed at Globe Derby. That wont be happening here.
Suggested Bet: BEST OF THE NIGHT - WIN Rays Daughter
Race 10 & 11: No Bet
Tuesday May 24th
BEST VALUE: Race 1 No 3 Lilbitahenrytee 1x4 EW
BEST ROUGHY: Race 6 No 2 Terror To Rock 1x4EW
BEST ROUGHY: Race 6 No 2 Terror To Rock 1x4EW
Full Meeting Summary
1790Race 1: 1790m
Early speed here from Lilbitahenrytee who I think will cross early and against the weakest field he's met for sometime. I think they hold the lead tonight & he gets his chance. Lady Monica has limited ability but from leaders back I thought she was a huge chance for a top 3 finish. Rocking Wroxton is only a chance if the lead is up for grabs. Beaudacious will need plenty to go right & Im risking Shesa Pearla first up around Mildura but it's 1st up run in Vic was good enough to win this. Small mention to Hillbilly Time but I just think he struggles around the sprint distances & is better running around 2190m.
Suggested Bets: 1x4EW Lilbitofhentrytee, Place Lady Monica
Race 2: 2190m
Real tough race to sort out. Herby will be throwing everything at Seeking Amnesty to hold, especially with it's stablemate on its back but I just cant see him holding Princess Lil. That mare is so hard to catch. She was pretty disappointing when leading against a slightly better field 3 starts back but they did rattle home a 56.9 last half after a ridiculously slow 1st half which isn't her go. Might be worth another chance against these. Lovin Everyday's chances hinges on Princess Lil handing up & I cant see that happening. Livin On The Edge brained similar horses in a trial here on the 15th when leading all the way. Slick time & a 25 metre winning margin. Is he good enough to come around them and win or do they play for luck & sneak inside runs? It looks the class horse of the race & with any sort of luck goes close. No offense to Aaron Coad but it is only his 2nd race drive & thats whats leading me to not back him from the tricky draw.
Suggested Bet: 2x3 EW Seeking Amnesty purely based on odds. $5+ currently
Race 3: 1790m
This maybe a harder race to figure out than the 2nd! Lets Go Exclusive is allergic to winning but will get options & every chance to win from gate 1 over the 1790m. The interesting runner is Rocknroll Ranger first up for David Nunn without a trial. From the Russell Jack stable previously and whilst not many horses improve after leaving that stable, this race is very weak. Has shown plenty of gate speed previously & if he led here looks to get every chance. Eddie The Best keeps being backed every week but has yet to look comfortable around Mildura. Happy to leave him out until he improves around this track. The rest are horribly out of form probably excluding Fortitudo & maybe my old mate Golden Scribe but this is likely to be a walk in the first half & just a sprint home. Hardly ideal for those settling in the back half of the field.
Suggested Bet: WIN Rocknroll Ranger
Race 4: 2190m
This is the final of heats conducted previously here & Swan Hill. Im not taking much out of the heat Jordie Dee won which was really a hard slog home. The other heats had a lot more depth & thats what I'm concentrating on. Keeyang Alex was impressive winning at Swan Hill & the question mark will be does he have enough speed to hold them early. I think that maybe less than a 50% chance especially with Ozzie Daybreak drawing the front line. That horse was just outsprinted by a better horse in Classic Reactor. In saying that, a better horse with that sort of run. Classic Reactor was on Ozzie Daybreaks back in the heat & has a better sprint. That wont happen here. Northern Terror is improving every time it runs since moving to the Reece Moore stable & his team is flying. May end up 3 pegs here but is a knockout chance with luck. Hoppers Dream will race his usual honest race, Royal Cadence had no luck at Swan Hill but the draw makes it tough here. This could go horribly wrong but siding with Ozzie Daybreak hoping Ellen lights him up early & crosses.
Suggested Bet: WIN Ozzie Daybreak
Race 5: 1790m
Glam Rock looks to lead all the way & I'm expecting Dougs Cino to really have a crack for the lead. Whether he can cross really determines the outcome of the race. If he can then I reckon it's race over but I think Glam Rock will hold. Thought that scenario gives Chloe Ann a nice chance at big odds. She's been racing well in arguably harder races & is never far away. She has enough speed to hold Glam Rocks back & will just need a gap late to be right in this. Have to respect Be A Good Scout back down in this grade too but looks unders at the current quote. With the right run he could blow these away. Risking the 3yo filly also In Play who might get lost not having the early speed of the others
Suggested Bet: 1x4EW Chloe Ann
Race 6: 1790m
Barack Enobrac is a blackbooker that wasn't disgraced at Swan Hill last week. He's come up very short in this considering I have him death seating but he's a major player in this. Robert Crocka might be the pest. Could fire off them arm & cross but that usually when he comes undone & fires up in the run. Caulonia Courage also well in this class but seems to race better over further. With the scratching of Lorne Beach, I thought that brings Terror To Rock right into the race. $41/$6 currently is massive overs I thought. He's done pretty much what you'd expect him to from poor draws in his 4 starts since returning from a spell. He led over 2190m here last November & was a great run in 3rd behind Marsden Heights and Blacktop Rock who'd both start very short favourites in a race like this. How much petrol he has to use to hold out Robert Crocka & whether he actually can will be the key. Real happy to find out at the big odds. He's my best roughy of the night
Suggested Bet: 1x4 EW Terror To Rock (Best Roughy)
Race 7: 1790m
Overpowering is flying for Aaron Coad & was a monster of a run last time after doing all the work from the breeze. It was a strange race though with them finishing off in 61s last half so you'd expect the swoopers to swamp them but it didnt really happen. I think he leads but it's a significant jump up in class & could be the one gasping for air on the final bend. King Soloman, Sarahs Bonus, Starvin Marvin & Goodtime Maddie are the ones either staying or dropping to this class & they're the ones I'm focusing on from a betting perspective. You can see another hard luck story coming up here for King Soloman but if he did get the right gaps late he'll look like the winner at some stage. Starvin Marvin & Goodtime Maddie have both been producing their best from in front so their draws are not ideal. Sarahs Bonus probably went too slow in front last time & she got outsprinted by a better horse than she meets here. I think the winner comes from one of 2 horses.
Suggested Bets: WIN Sarahs Bonus & King Soloman
Race 8: 1790m
Not keen on this race at all. So many mixed formlines. The class runners in Murranji Track & Jimmy Mach the ones to focus on but Im staying out.
Suggested Bet: None
Race 9: 1790m
Elizabethan Era is your leader here but I think she maybe struggling to hold on against these horses. Hoppers Dream well, there is no horse currently running that Ive lost more money on in recent times. I was keen to have another crack here at anything $2+ but those odds are well gone. Should push forward from the draw & take a sit on Bezzaboma. That horse is racing well & is the right horse to follow into the race as I think he'll push past Elizabethan Era on the turn.. Tact Tory & Rays Daughter could be the blowouts if they go too crazy in front.
Suggested Bet: WIN Hoppers Dream if $2+
Race 10: 1790m
Not keen on this race but heres hoping Blue Cannon can get the job done for Chris Smythe who's doing it tough. Looks a nice horse for racing in this area. Luvuself should find this race to it's liking especially if she can find a bit of gate speed & hold them out. This is very weak! If Steal Some Time crossed she'll run a cheeky race.
Suggested Bet: None
Race 11: 1790m
Good competitive race on paper. Fortyshades Cresco will be hunting up to try & hold out Whereyagoinbabe, Flame Buster, Apache Wind (may restrain here) & Overreaction. If they press each other for too long there are going to be some tired horses late & thats what Im expecting. Sir Jujon interested me until I saw the market. . I think he just got too fired up over the longer trip last time in front & went way too quick. Had to tire late so the run can be forgiven. He could end up 3 pegs but having Herby in the sulky might remedy the draw. He's the one I want to be on with any sort of luck back to a sit sprint run. $2.90 on TAB is big unders. Thought we might get $5
Suggested Bet: None unless there is a massive drift Sir Jujon
Race 12: 1790m
Mods looks your leader & should go mighty close. A big unknown is Only In Rome who is 1st up from Tassie. Impressive trial win last weekend though & a repeat of that wins this. Extremely even race outside those 2. Not keen on this one
Suggested Bet: None
Early speed here from Lilbitahenrytee who I think will cross early and against the weakest field he's met for sometime. I think they hold the lead tonight & he gets his chance. Lady Monica has limited ability but from leaders back I thought she was a huge chance for a top 3 finish. Rocking Wroxton is only a chance if the lead is up for grabs. Beaudacious will need plenty to go right & Im risking Shesa Pearla first up around Mildura but it's 1st up run in Vic was good enough to win this. Small mention to Hillbilly Time but I just think he struggles around the sprint distances & is better running around 2190m.
Suggested Bets: 1x4EW Lilbitofhentrytee, Place Lady Monica
Race 2: 2190m
Real tough race to sort out. Herby will be throwing everything at Seeking Amnesty to hold, especially with it's stablemate on its back but I just cant see him holding Princess Lil. That mare is so hard to catch. She was pretty disappointing when leading against a slightly better field 3 starts back but they did rattle home a 56.9 last half after a ridiculously slow 1st half which isn't her go. Might be worth another chance against these. Lovin Everyday's chances hinges on Princess Lil handing up & I cant see that happening. Livin On The Edge brained similar horses in a trial here on the 15th when leading all the way. Slick time & a 25 metre winning margin. Is he good enough to come around them and win or do they play for luck & sneak inside runs? It looks the class horse of the race & with any sort of luck goes close. No offense to Aaron Coad but it is only his 2nd race drive & thats whats leading me to not back him from the tricky draw.
Suggested Bet: 2x3 EW Seeking Amnesty purely based on odds. $5+ currently
Race 3: 1790m
This maybe a harder race to figure out than the 2nd! Lets Go Exclusive is allergic to winning but will get options & every chance to win from gate 1 over the 1790m. The interesting runner is Rocknroll Ranger first up for David Nunn without a trial. From the Russell Jack stable previously and whilst not many horses improve after leaving that stable, this race is very weak. Has shown plenty of gate speed previously & if he led here looks to get every chance. Eddie The Best keeps being backed every week but has yet to look comfortable around Mildura. Happy to leave him out until he improves around this track. The rest are horribly out of form probably excluding Fortitudo & maybe my old mate Golden Scribe but this is likely to be a walk in the first half & just a sprint home. Hardly ideal for those settling in the back half of the field.
Suggested Bet: WIN Rocknroll Ranger
Race 4: 2190m
This is the final of heats conducted previously here & Swan Hill. Im not taking much out of the heat Jordie Dee won which was really a hard slog home. The other heats had a lot more depth & thats what I'm concentrating on. Keeyang Alex was impressive winning at Swan Hill & the question mark will be does he have enough speed to hold them early. I think that maybe less than a 50% chance especially with Ozzie Daybreak drawing the front line. That horse was just outsprinted by a better horse in Classic Reactor. In saying that, a better horse with that sort of run. Classic Reactor was on Ozzie Daybreaks back in the heat & has a better sprint. That wont happen here. Northern Terror is improving every time it runs since moving to the Reece Moore stable & his team is flying. May end up 3 pegs here but is a knockout chance with luck. Hoppers Dream will race his usual honest race, Royal Cadence had no luck at Swan Hill but the draw makes it tough here. This could go horribly wrong but siding with Ozzie Daybreak hoping Ellen lights him up early & crosses.
Suggested Bet: WIN Ozzie Daybreak
Race 5: 1790m
Glam Rock looks to lead all the way & I'm expecting Dougs Cino to really have a crack for the lead. Whether he can cross really determines the outcome of the race. If he can then I reckon it's race over but I think Glam Rock will hold. Thought that scenario gives Chloe Ann a nice chance at big odds. She's been racing well in arguably harder races & is never far away. She has enough speed to hold Glam Rocks back & will just need a gap late to be right in this. Have to respect Be A Good Scout back down in this grade too but looks unders at the current quote. With the right run he could blow these away. Risking the 3yo filly also In Play who might get lost not having the early speed of the others
Suggested Bet: 1x4EW Chloe Ann
Race 6: 1790m
Barack Enobrac is a blackbooker that wasn't disgraced at Swan Hill last week. He's come up very short in this considering I have him death seating but he's a major player in this. Robert Crocka might be the pest. Could fire off them arm & cross but that usually when he comes undone & fires up in the run. Caulonia Courage also well in this class but seems to race better over further. With the scratching of Lorne Beach, I thought that brings Terror To Rock right into the race. $41/$6 currently is massive overs I thought. He's done pretty much what you'd expect him to from poor draws in his 4 starts since returning from a spell. He led over 2190m here last November & was a great run in 3rd behind Marsden Heights and Blacktop Rock who'd both start very short favourites in a race like this. How much petrol he has to use to hold out Robert Crocka & whether he actually can will be the key. Real happy to find out at the big odds. He's my best roughy of the night
Suggested Bet: 1x4 EW Terror To Rock (Best Roughy)
Race 7: 1790m
Overpowering is flying for Aaron Coad & was a monster of a run last time after doing all the work from the breeze. It was a strange race though with them finishing off in 61s last half so you'd expect the swoopers to swamp them but it didnt really happen. I think he leads but it's a significant jump up in class & could be the one gasping for air on the final bend. King Soloman, Sarahs Bonus, Starvin Marvin & Goodtime Maddie are the ones either staying or dropping to this class & they're the ones I'm focusing on from a betting perspective. You can see another hard luck story coming up here for King Soloman but if he did get the right gaps late he'll look like the winner at some stage. Starvin Marvin & Goodtime Maddie have both been producing their best from in front so their draws are not ideal. Sarahs Bonus probably went too slow in front last time & she got outsprinted by a better horse than she meets here. I think the winner comes from one of 2 horses.
Suggested Bets: WIN Sarahs Bonus & King Soloman
Race 8: 1790m
Not keen on this race at all. So many mixed formlines. The class runners in Murranji Track & Jimmy Mach the ones to focus on but Im staying out.
Suggested Bet: None
Race 9: 1790m
Elizabethan Era is your leader here but I think she maybe struggling to hold on against these horses. Hoppers Dream well, there is no horse currently running that Ive lost more money on in recent times. I was keen to have another crack here at anything $2+ but those odds are well gone. Should push forward from the draw & take a sit on Bezzaboma. That horse is racing well & is the right horse to follow into the race as I think he'll push past Elizabethan Era on the turn.. Tact Tory & Rays Daughter could be the blowouts if they go too crazy in front.
Suggested Bet: WIN Hoppers Dream if $2+
Race 10: 1790m
Not keen on this race but heres hoping Blue Cannon can get the job done for Chris Smythe who's doing it tough. Looks a nice horse for racing in this area. Luvuself should find this race to it's liking especially if she can find a bit of gate speed & hold them out. This is very weak! If Steal Some Time crossed she'll run a cheeky race.
Suggested Bet: None
Race 11: 1790m
Good competitive race on paper. Fortyshades Cresco will be hunting up to try & hold out Whereyagoinbabe, Flame Buster, Apache Wind (may restrain here) & Overreaction. If they press each other for too long there are going to be some tired horses late & thats what Im expecting. Sir Jujon interested me until I saw the market. . I think he just got too fired up over the longer trip last time in front & went way too quick. Had to tire late so the run can be forgiven. He could end up 3 pegs but having Herby in the sulky might remedy the draw. He's the one I want to be on with any sort of luck back to a sit sprint run. $2.90 on TAB is big unders. Thought we might get $5
Suggested Bet: None unless there is a massive drift Sir Jujon
Race 12: 1790m
Mods looks your leader & should go mighty close. A big unknown is Only In Rome who is 1st up from Tassie. Impressive trial win last weekend though & a repeat of that wins this. Extremely even race outside those 2. Not keen on this one
Suggested Bet: None
Friday May 6th
BETTING SUMMARY:
I haven't really got a best play tonight punters as some smarter punters than me have got in early and taken some juicy odds so a summary of my main bets are:
Race 3: WIN Social Writer (although is very short in the market now - reckon it drifts closer to race time)
Race 4: WIN Miss Twinkle (my main play)
Race 7: PLACE Robert Crocka at $2+
Race 8: WIN Rocknroll Ronnie, saver Starvin Marvin
Race 12: 2x3 EW Fiftyshades Cresco (Best Value), 1x4EW Hillbilly Time (Best Roughy)
I haven't really got a best play tonight punters as some smarter punters than me have got in early and taken some juicy odds so a summary of my main bets are:
Race 3: WIN Social Writer (although is very short in the market now - reckon it drifts closer to race time)
Race 4: WIN Miss Twinkle (my main play)
Race 7: PLACE Robert Crocka at $2+
Race 8: WIN Rocknroll Ronnie, saver Starvin Marvin
Race 12: 2x3 EW Fiftyshades Cresco (Best Value), 1x4EW Hillbilly Time (Best Roughy)
Race 1: 2 & 3yo Pace 1790m
Heathburn Bruce is a 2yo taking on the local 3yo's and if he brings in his recent form the locals wont be beating him. 2nd pick Shallow Pockets who trialed well enough to fill a hole here just in front of Regal Star
Suggested Bet: Trifecta 1/7/3
Race 2:NR up to 51 1790m
Its advantage Moneymakinmonkey from the 1 draw & it'll be mighty hard to beat if he can hold out Princess Lil early. Thats a big question mark though & if Princess Lil does cross she wont be handing up over the 1790m. Im not entirely confident on who leads, reckon thats 50/50. If the 1 does hold, Sir Jujon is right in this after a very unlucky last start. Life gets hard from 3 pegs though. Frankntank is taking more money out of my wallet than my 12yo daughter of late but this is easier again & his chances increase if Princess Lil can lead as I can see it being just a slog home the last quarter.
Suggested Bet: 1x4 EW Sir Jujon & Frankntank
Race 3: 4yo & older Maiden 2190m
Ashford Secret was backed heavily 1st up for the Ashwood camp on the last night of the carnival & dropped out after breaking before the final bend. Led comfortably and walked & before he broke I thought he was going to lose anyway. I'd need to see more before backing him. Social Writer on the other hand was impressive running 2nd to Lookout on the Friday night of the carnival after death seating. It was a slick 57s last half there too. Going to have to do it tough again from the draw but looks the best horse in the race
Suggested Bet: WIN Social Writer
Race 4: NR up to 51
It'll be nice and keen here early with Miss Twinkle & Tactfilly Magic looking to lead. Im keen on Miss Twinkle here. Fell in for us last time over the 2190m. Last time she led over the course & distance she beat Tactfilly Magic easily & it does look like a race they'll walk up front after settling. Have to mention Bezzabomba who is flying ever since Ryan Sanderson jumped in the cart - looks to have found the secret to him. If he'd drawn better he'd be a massive chance but it'll be tough from 6.
Suggested Bet: WIN Miss Twinkle
Race 5 NR 50-53 1790m
So many of these mixing form & there's also different form lines coming into this so its hard to line up. The horse that is flying is Have A Crack another that Ryan Sanderson has managed to improve. He'll be relying on Winnedou holding to be a major player & who knows what that horse will bring to the races tonight. Seems to be a better trial horse. Caulonia Courage is back to a nice grade for him & is a major player. Same for Write About Angus but Im still not sold on him. A race with a heap of chances
Suggested Bet: 2x3 EW Caulonia Courage for fun
Race 6
Deaken Avenue got the job for us on the last night of the carnival & steps up again in grade tonight. The draw maybe a worry as Ellen drives the gate better than anyone at Mildura and I can see Blazin Beauty fly out here & cross. Im sure Ellen will be keen to hand up as there will be a great deal of pressure coming from Itswrongtobexcited and Overpowering. Itswrongtobeexcited deserves a win, just seems to be the one having to do all the heavy lifting in his races lately & thats likely to be the case again. Overpowering got the job done from a wide gate last time thanks to a pearler from Greg Sugars. Going to need another pearler of a drive to be winning this for mine. Soho Bob has been racing welll around Globe Derby against arguably weaker horses but disrespect Dani at your peril! If Deaken Avenue managed to kick up & hold, Yoursnmine is right in this also. Cemetery Bay is much better suited in this class & if they go crazy early he'll be too strong for them late. Question will be how far back will he be in a 10 horse field? Another tough race but one last chance Itswrongtobeexcited.
Suggested Bet: WIN Itswrongtobeexcited, saver on Cemetery Bay
Race 7: NR 50 to 53 1790m
Loyola Rocknrolla found the 2240m at Swan Hill 1 metre too far last time but looks suited again here over the short. Will have a pest on his outside in Longtan Cassanova but for how long who knows. If Loyolla Rocknrolla steals a cheap early quarter or 2, he's the one to be on & I think that maybe the case. Bettorz Beach the interesting runner. Did enough in a trial on the weekend to suggest he's ready for a race like this but will need to be from the draw. Happy to risk him 1st up around Mildura. Robert Crocka becomes a play now with the scratching of the emergency. He'll trail Loyolla Rocknrolla and get his chance, just not sure he'll be good enough to run down the fav.
Suggested Bet: I missed the place price for Robert Crocka but there is still $2+ available this morning. Looks a great play
Race 8: NR 62-75 2190m
Is tonight the night for Rocknroll Ronnie? Looks very well suited after a couple of ripping runs in the Mildura Cup heat & final. Follows through the likely leader in Starvin Marvin & just needs a gap late to be too good for mine. Starvin Marvin is racing well. Tried to beat the favourite with the tactics applied at Swan Hill, which they did, but he was left a sitting duck for a couple of the roughies late & he couldn't hold them off. Different scenario here as once he leads he just needs to put the brakes on with his what I thought his main danger on his back. (market doest agree with me) Just Cappy can definitely throw a spanner into the works though. He can fly the gate & lead. I thought Starvin Marvin could hold him out but if Im wrong, he's a huge chance in front. Jumping off Pocket Thedeal but if everything falls his way he can definitely win. Goodtime Maddie I cant see crossing & that'll make life tough for her. She's not hopeless as a sit sprinter though & Im also risking Dancing Finn who Im not sure where he gets to in the run.
Suggested Bets: Starvin Marvin looks a great chance out in front but have to go with Rocknroll Ronnie based on his Mildura Cup campaign. WIN Rocknroll Ronnie, saver Starvin Marvin
Race 9: Fast Class 1790m
It'll be all about the tempo for this race & Ive nearly given up trying to predict what'll happen in these fast class races but here I go anyway. Art Of Sheng Li & Gilty Hanover have plenty of early toe, not as much as Ozzie Battler though. How long Ozzie Battler takes to get to the front, if at all, will be the key. If he manages to slide across them with ease then he's the one I'd want to be on but I doubt that'll be the case. Bernie Winkle does look the one to beat if the early tempo turns out as predicted but he's been 0/3 at short odds at Mildura this season. Couldn't possibly back him at the short odds. Murranji Track is up to these obviously winning a similar race in March but his last start was concerning
Suggested Bet: None
Race 10 NR up to 47 1790m
I think Hoppers Dream is the best horse in this race by some way but he's got some tricks! Eye catcher in a 51 rater first up at Mildura on April 5th, blew the start from gate 1 the next run, & his last 2 runs have been very good from poor draws thanks to the ODM. Last start was a monster of a run behind Deakin Avenue. 3 wide to the death & he never threw in the towel. That race is probably 2 levels higher than what he meets tonight & he should be winning. He was one of my best of the night when he galloped out so hopefully we dont see a repeat of that. Im not an odds on punter but if you are I thought he'd be winning this race easily if he did everything right.
Suggested Bet: WIN Hoppers Dream
Race 11
There are hard races to access & then we have this gem. There is going to be some plodding late & I reckon Vierra gets his chance to out plod them late. Opened up $9 & the pre MBL snipers have smashed that. Still reckon we'll be getting close to $5 near the jump (I hope!) Probably was disappointing 2 starts back when he led & walked the first half in 63.3s but I dont think that suits him. Not much sprint left in his 9yo legs and he was outsprinted late by Tact Tory which is no disgrace. He'll get a nice run through following Lets Go Exclusive & hopefully he can dictate from the death in even quarters this week. Fomo might be the better horse in the race but his task is going to be hard from the draw & same can be said for the fav but as I say, races dont get much weaker than this.
Suggested Bet: WIN Vierra
Race 12
Team Ashwood have a great strike rate of bringing new stable additions to Mildura & winning & Josie Ella looks very well suited against a pretty weak field here. Nice enough trial at Bendigo leading in but I do like to see them run around Mildura first before they see any of my money. For that reason I thought Fiftyshades Cresco is a good play. Her last win was in February (47 rater) from gate 1 over the same distance where she led easily from gate 1, walked them in a 65.7 first half & held off Bezamboma late. (That horse has been in great form ever since) She's been running in 51-53 rating races of late so the drop back to a 40 rater looks very well suited. The fav may be too good but happy to find out at the odds. Also not letting Hillbilly Time go around without something on. Going much better than his form suggests the old fella.
Suggested Bet: 2x3 EW Fiftyshades Cresco, smaller 1x4 ew Hillbilly Time
Heathburn Bruce is a 2yo taking on the local 3yo's and if he brings in his recent form the locals wont be beating him. 2nd pick Shallow Pockets who trialed well enough to fill a hole here just in front of Regal Star
Suggested Bet: Trifecta 1/7/3
Race 2:NR up to 51 1790m
Its advantage Moneymakinmonkey from the 1 draw & it'll be mighty hard to beat if he can hold out Princess Lil early. Thats a big question mark though & if Princess Lil does cross she wont be handing up over the 1790m. Im not entirely confident on who leads, reckon thats 50/50. If the 1 does hold, Sir Jujon is right in this after a very unlucky last start. Life gets hard from 3 pegs though. Frankntank is taking more money out of my wallet than my 12yo daughter of late but this is easier again & his chances increase if Princess Lil can lead as I can see it being just a slog home the last quarter.
Suggested Bet: 1x4 EW Sir Jujon & Frankntank
Race 3: 4yo & older Maiden 2190m
Ashford Secret was backed heavily 1st up for the Ashwood camp on the last night of the carnival & dropped out after breaking before the final bend. Led comfortably and walked & before he broke I thought he was going to lose anyway. I'd need to see more before backing him. Social Writer on the other hand was impressive running 2nd to Lookout on the Friday night of the carnival after death seating. It was a slick 57s last half there too. Going to have to do it tough again from the draw but looks the best horse in the race
Suggested Bet: WIN Social Writer
Race 4: NR up to 51
It'll be nice and keen here early with Miss Twinkle & Tactfilly Magic looking to lead. Im keen on Miss Twinkle here. Fell in for us last time over the 2190m. Last time she led over the course & distance she beat Tactfilly Magic easily & it does look like a race they'll walk up front after settling. Have to mention Bezzabomba who is flying ever since Ryan Sanderson jumped in the cart - looks to have found the secret to him. If he'd drawn better he'd be a massive chance but it'll be tough from 6.
Suggested Bet: WIN Miss Twinkle
Race 5 NR 50-53 1790m
So many of these mixing form & there's also different form lines coming into this so its hard to line up. The horse that is flying is Have A Crack another that Ryan Sanderson has managed to improve. He'll be relying on Winnedou holding to be a major player & who knows what that horse will bring to the races tonight. Seems to be a better trial horse. Caulonia Courage is back to a nice grade for him & is a major player. Same for Write About Angus but Im still not sold on him. A race with a heap of chances
Suggested Bet: 2x3 EW Caulonia Courage for fun
Race 6
Deaken Avenue got the job for us on the last night of the carnival & steps up again in grade tonight. The draw maybe a worry as Ellen drives the gate better than anyone at Mildura and I can see Blazin Beauty fly out here & cross. Im sure Ellen will be keen to hand up as there will be a great deal of pressure coming from Itswrongtobexcited and Overpowering. Itswrongtobeexcited deserves a win, just seems to be the one having to do all the heavy lifting in his races lately & thats likely to be the case again. Overpowering got the job done from a wide gate last time thanks to a pearler from Greg Sugars. Going to need another pearler of a drive to be winning this for mine. Soho Bob has been racing welll around Globe Derby against arguably weaker horses but disrespect Dani at your peril! If Deaken Avenue managed to kick up & hold, Yoursnmine is right in this also. Cemetery Bay is much better suited in this class & if they go crazy early he'll be too strong for them late. Question will be how far back will he be in a 10 horse field? Another tough race but one last chance Itswrongtobeexcited.
Suggested Bet: WIN Itswrongtobeexcited, saver on Cemetery Bay
Race 7: NR 50 to 53 1790m
Loyola Rocknrolla found the 2240m at Swan Hill 1 metre too far last time but looks suited again here over the short. Will have a pest on his outside in Longtan Cassanova but for how long who knows. If Loyolla Rocknrolla steals a cheap early quarter or 2, he's the one to be on & I think that maybe the case. Bettorz Beach the interesting runner. Did enough in a trial on the weekend to suggest he's ready for a race like this but will need to be from the draw. Happy to risk him 1st up around Mildura. Robert Crocka becomes a play now with the scratching of the emergency. He'll trail Loyolla Rocknrolla and get his chance, just not sure he'll be good enough to run down the fav.
Suggested Bet: I missed the place price for Robert Crocka but there is still $2+ available this morning. Looks a great play
Race 8: NR 62-75 2190m
Is tonight the night for Rocknroll Ronnie? Looks very well suited after a couple of ripping runs in the Mildura Cup heat & final. Follows through the likely leader in Starvin Marvin & just needs a gap late to be too good for mine. Starvin Marvin is racing well. Tried to beat the favourite with the tactics applied at Swan Hill, which they did, but he was left a sitting duck for a couple of the roughies late & he couldn't hold them off. Different scenario here as once he leads he just needs to put the brakes on with his what I thought his main danger on his back. (market doest agree with me) Just Cappy can definitely throw a spanner into the works though. He can fly the gate & lead. I thought Starvin Marvin could hold him out but if Im wrong, he's a huge chance in front. Jumping off Pocket Thedeal but if everything falls his way he can definitely win. Goodtime Maddie I cant see crossing & that'll make life tough for her. She's not hopeless as a sit sprinter though & Im also risking Dancing Finn who Im not sure where he gets to in the run.
Suggested Bets: Starvin Marvin looks a great chance out in front but have to go with Rocknroll Ronnie based on his Mildura Cup campaign. WIN Rocknroll Ronnie, saver Starvin Marvin
Race 9: Fast Class 1790m
It'll be all about the tempo for this race & Ive nearly given up trying to predict what'll happen in these fast class races but here I go anyway. Art Of Sheng Li & Gilty Hanover have plenty of early toe, not as much as Ozzie Battler though. How long Ozzie Battler takes to get to the front, if at all, will be the key. If he manages to slide across them with ease then he's the one I'd want to be on but I doubt that'll be the case. Bernie Winkle does look the one to beat if the early tempo turns out as predicted but he's been 0/3 at short odds at Mildura this season. Couldn't possibly back him at the short odds. Murranji Track is up to these obviously winning a similar race in March but his last start was concerning
Suggested Bet: None
Race 10 NR up to 47 1790m
I think Hoppers Dream is the best horse in this race by some way but he's got some tricks! Eye catcher in a 51 rater first up at Mildura on April 5th, blew the start from gate 1 the next run, & his last 2 runs have been very good from poor draws thanks to the ODM. Last start was a monster of a run behind Deakin Avenue. 3 wide to the death & he never threw in the towel. That race is probably 2 levels higher than what he meets tonight & he should be winning. He was one of my best of the night when he galloped out so hopefully we dont see a repeat of that. Im not an odds on punter but if you are I thought he'd be winning this race easily if he did everything right.
Suggested Bet: WIN Hoppers Dream
Race 11
There are hard races to access & then we have this gem. There is going to be some plodding late & I reckon Vierra gets his chance to out plod them late. Opened up $9 & the pre MBL snipers have smashed that. Still reckon we'll be getting close to $5 near the jump (I hope!) Probably was disappointing 2 starts back when he led & walked the first half in 63.3s but I dont think that suits him. Not much sprint left in his 9yo legs and he was outsprinted late by Tact Tory which is no disgrace. He'll get a nice run through following Lets Go Exclusive & hopefully he can dictate from the death in even quarters this week. Fomo might be the better horse in the race but his task is going to be hard from the draw & same can be said for the fav but as I say, races dont get much weaker than this.
Suggested Bet: WIN Vierra
Race 12
Team Ashwood have a great strike rate of bringing new stable additions to Mildura & winning & Josie Ella looks very well suited against a pretty weak field here. Nice enough trial at Bendigo leading in but I do like to see them run around Mildura first before they see any of my money. For that reason I thought Fiftyshades Cresco is a good play. Her last win was in February (47 rater) from gate 1 over the same distance where she led easily from gate 1, walked them in a 65.7 first half & held off Bezamboma late. (That horse has been in great form ever since) She's been running in 51-53 rating races of late so the drop back to a 40 rater looks very well suited. The fav may be too good but happy to find out at the odds. Also not letting Hillbilly Time go around without something on. Going much better than his form suggests the old fella.
Suggested Bet: 2x3 EW Fiftyshades Cresco, smaller 1x4 ew Hillbilly Time
Friday, April 21st
Race 1:
Lookout looks your leader and did enough at Shepparton first up to suggest he goes very close here. Lady Monica's run here 3 starts ago from the same draw suggests she can place without surprising. Dont Waste Time the big question mark. Something must've been amiss last time but her first up run around Birchip was good enough to place in a race like this.
Suggested Bet: Place No 1 Lady Monica
Race 2:
Tell A Tall Story looks extremely well suited in this. Didnt have a lot of room at Hamilton late last start in a much stronger race. Has Mini Major covered for early speed but the risk maybe Princess Lil steaming across for her wide draw. However that horse was extremely disappointing after leading last time and is perhaps better suited with a sit so the retake could be there. Doesn't have to lead to win Tell a Tall Story though.
Suggested Bet: WIN No 2 Tell A Tall Story @ $2+
Race 3:
Shes a 2yo filly taking on the 3yo's The Huntress but she clearly looks the one to beat after an impressive 2nd to what looks to be a smart juvenile in Pretty In Pink at Geelong. She raced a little rough early there so might take some nursing around the first Mildura bend at high speed but definitely the one to beat. Chedalayo has been racing against much better fields but might've been a touch disappointing last time. If The Huntress does things wrong she gets her chance. Would need to be a very messy race for anything else to win.
Suggested Bet: None
Race 4:
The Boost has recorded 2 of his 3 wins when leading at this track at any distance. Won a 54 rater in good time here in November. Looks extremely well suited in this with his main dangers drawn his outside. Delightful Nicky struggles to win and Overpowering with Greg Sugars in the cart could be the the main danger but is going to have to be good to win from the draw. If they go too quick in front, Tact Tory could run a cheeky race from the trailing draw & Stonebridge Star has never raced better
Suggested Bet: Win No 1 The Boost @ $2+
Race 5
Trotters - No Bet
Race 6
Might be a good race to take the overs on Luke Humphries saying "True Mildura Style" in this race as there is a stack of speed off the front row on paper. 2,3,4,5 are all go forward horses and I'd say Little Suzie will force her way across as much as she can to ensure Im Princess Bella doesn't receive an easy lead. On that scenario I thought Itswrongtobeexcited was the value runner. Hasn't had much go his way the past 2 & is right in this considering he's likely to be getting a sit on pace. Its Princess Bella the right favourite though
Suggested Bet: 2/3 EW Itswrongtobexcited
Race 7:
Hard race to line up but you'd think the local class horses will struggle to measure up to the visitors here in Illawong Kellie & Royal Cadence who both arguably bring in better form. illawong Kellie has had plenty of excuses lately & does look very well suited against these. Best of the locals is Ozzie Daybreak. Had no luck last time from a bad draw & previous runs he's attacked for the lead but failed. Gets his chance to lead tonight if Crackerjacks Judge hands up like I expect. His last win was leading and winning at this track and distance against a better field. He's couldn't be fitter after 6 runs back & gets his chance. Have to mention Chloe Ann also who drops in grade after a nice run last time. Just not sure where she gets to in the run not having the same early speed of those to her inside but if she gets any luck, shes in the mix.
Suggested Bet: 2/3 EW Ozzie Daybreak
Race 8:
No bet - Trotters
Race 9:
Rocks Arent Pets might be able to hold these out early on a front line that looks to have little early speed & give him his chance but there is a big query on his recent form & how well he's going. Come On Elvis was ok here on Tuesday night even though beaten out of sight. Place chance again. Mister Artikulate & Wyattflynn bring in the strongest from outside Mildura and are major players with the right runs. Frankntank is the one I'm interested in though. Going to have to find a spot in the back half of the field but I think the 2190m will allow him to work into the race this week. He's been driven for luck over the shorter distances in recent times & hasn't received any. With a bit more aggression here he's right in this & looks the value play
Suggested Bet: 1/4 EW Frankntank (Best Roughy)
Race 10
This is as weak as it gets & Harry McKinnis either leads or sits leaders back & finally gets his chance. (Note 1 is EOD) If Elizabethan Era is able to cross then his job does become a little harder. Might be a case of who leads wins but thats probably a bit disrespectful to Abbie Lincoln but she'll need plenty to go right if they settle quickly & walk the first half. Happy to risk Whereyagoinbabe who needs to be in front to perform its best & I cant see that happening here.
Suggested Bet: WIN Harry McKinnis (Best Value Bet)
Race 11
Mista Pumblechook gets another chance to return to the winners list but he isn't the most trustworthy animal. Did scrap home in a 42 rater but that was over the longer journey here in November & looks better suited over the 1790m. Midrace pressure might come from Another Sparky but I cant see him death seating & winning. Lilbitofhenrytee interests. Been racing extremely well against better horses. Problem for him is it'll be 3 pegs & looking for runs. What happens often in these low grade races is those horses working 1 or 2 off the fence can tire & gaps quite often appear for those on the pegs. If Lilbitofhentry sees a gap early enough he can outsprint them. Takidah was a better run last time in a stronger race & is a major player with the right run & my speed map has her sitting 1x1.
Suggested Bet: Something on Lilbitofhenrytee & Mista Pumblechook
Lookout looks your leader and did enough at Shepparton first up to suggest he goes very close here. Lady Monica's run here 3 starts ago from the same draw suggests she can place without surprising. Dont Waste Time the big question mark. Something must've been amiss last time but her first up run around Birchip was good enough to place in a race like this.
Suggested Bet: Place No 1 Lady Monica
Race 2:
Tell A Tall Story looks extremely well suited in this. Didnt have a lot of room at Hamilton late last start in a much stronger race. Has Mini Major covered for early speed but the risk maybe Princess Lil steaming across for her wide draw. However that horse was extremely disappointing after leading last time and is perhaps better suited with a sit so the retake could be there. Doesn't have to lead to win Tell a Tall Story though.
Suggested Bet: WIN No 2 Tell A Tall Story @ $2+
Race 3:
Shes a 2yo filly taking on the 3yo's The Huntress but she clearly looks the one to beat after an impressive 2nd to what looks to be a smart juvenile in Pretty In Pink at Geelong. She raced a little rough early there so might take some nursing around the first Mildura bend at high speed but definitely the one to beat. Chedalayo has been racing against much better fields but might've been a touch disappointing last time. If The Huntress does things wrong she gets her chance. Would need to be a very messy race for anything else to win.
Suggested Bet: None
Race 4:
The Boost has recorded 2 of his 3 wins when leading at this track at any distance. Won a 54 rater in good time here in November. Looks extremely well suited in this with his main dangers drawn his outside. Delightful Nicky struggles to win and Overpowering with Greg Sugars in the cart could be the the main danger but is going to have to be good to win from the draw. If they go too quick in front, Tact Tory could run a cheeky race from the trailing draw & Stonebridge Star has never raced better
Suggested Bet: Win No 1 The Boost @ $2+
Race 5
Trotters - No Bet
Race 6
Might be a good race to take the overs on Luke Humphries saying "True Mildura Style" in this race as there is a stack of speed off the front row on paper. 2,3,4,5 are all go forward horses and I'd say Little Suzie will force her way across as much as she can to ensure Im Princess Bella doesn't receive an easy lead. On that scenario I thought Itswrongtobeexcited was the value runner. Hasn't had much go his way the past 2 & is right in this considering he's likely to be getting a sit on pace. Its Princess Bella the right favourite though
Suggested Bet: 2/3 EW Itswrongtobexcited
Race 7:
Hard race to line up but you'd think the local class horses will struggle to measure up to the visitors here in Illawong Kellie & Royal Cadence who both arguably bring in better form. illawong Kellie has had plenty of excuses lately & does look very well suited against these. Best of the locals is Ozzie Daybreak. Had no luck last time from a bad draw & previous runs he's attacked for the lead but failed. Gets his chance to lead tonight if Crackerjacks Judge hands up like I expect. His last win was leading and winning at this track and distance against a better field. He's couldn't be fitter after 6 runs back & gets his chance. Have to mention Chloe Ann also who drops in grade after a nice run last time. Just not sure where she gets to in the run not having the same early speed of those to her inside but if she gets any luck, shes in the mix.
Suggested Bet: 2/3 EW Ozzie Daybreak
Race 8:
No bet - Trotters
Race 9:
Rocks Arent Pets might be able to hold these out early on a front line that looks to have little early speed & give him his chance but there is a big query on his recent form & how well he's going. Come On Elvis was ok here on Tuesday night even though beaten out of sight. Place chance again. Mister Artikulate & Wyattflynn bring in the strongest from outside Mildura and are major players with the right runs. Frankntank is the one I'm interested in though. Going to have to find a spot in the back half of the field but I think the 2190m will allow him to work into the race this week. He's been driven for luck over the shorter distances in recent times & hasn't received any. With a bit more aggression here he's right in this & looks the value play
Suggested Bet: 1/4 EW Frankntank (Best Roughy)
Race 10
This is as weak as it gets & Harry McKinnis either leads or sits leaders back & finally gets his chance. (Note 1 is EOD) If Elizabethan Era is able to cross then his job does become a little harder. Might be a case of who leads wins but thats probably a bit disrespectful to Abbie Lincoln but she'll need plenty to go right if they settle quickly & walk the first half. Happy to risk Whereyagoinbabe who needs to be in front to perform its best & I cant see that happening here.
Suggested Bet: WIN Harry McKinnis (Best Value Bet)
Race 11
Mista Pumblechook gets another chance to return to the winners list but he isn't the most trustworthy animal. Did scrap home in a 42 rater but that was over the longer journey here in November & looks better suited over the 1790m. Midrace pressure might come from Another Sparky but I cant see him death seating & winning. Lilbitofhenrytee interests. Been racing extremely well against better horses. Problem for him is it'll be 3 pegs & looking for runs. What happens often in these low grade races is those horses working 1 or 2 off the fence can tire & gaps quite often appear for those on the pegs. If Lilbitofhentry sees a gap early enough he can outsprint them. Takidah was a better run last time in a stronger race & is a major player with the right run & my speed map has her sitting 1x1.
Suggested Bet: Something on Lilbitofhenrytee & Mista Pumblechook
Meeting Summary Tuesday, April 19th
Race 1:
A race with plenty of queries and mixed form lines. Daggy Lamb may destroy these. Has been impressive albeit it from gate 1 in lesser class it's first 2. Gotta watch the old Tact Tate owners! Changeover Girl & Delwyns Son probably the other class runners of the race but again, first time here.
Happy to stick with value & horses I know that race well here. Caulonia Courage was massive in defeat last time after locking wheels at the bell. Lost about 15 metres & plenty of momentum. Finished the best of the run on horses only beaten 4 metres. Great win prior in easier. Gets the gun draw tonight. The other is Keayang Balboa. If he can cross it'll give a great run for your money. Thought he stuck on really well at this track & distance last time in a strong race. He holds his form well and I thought it was a better than 50% chance that he could cross.
Suggested Bets: 1x4 EW No 1 Caulonia Courage & No 5 Keayang Balboa
Race 2:
Blackbooker Toby O'Gara looks a play at double figure odds. Thought Goodtime Maddie & Midnight Calm would race hard early & that'll be followed up with either Marsden Heights or Heaven Attracts going to the death to keep them rolling. Sets up really well for Toby especially if he can get the right tag into the race. Hopefully no excuses tonight!
Suggested Bet: 2x3EW No 8 Toby O'Gara
Race 3
Happy to take on Sayitaintso Joe first up at the track from the draw. No doubt the best horse in the race but even money from a back row draw over the short course, no thanks! Loyola Rocknrolla looks the leader & looks the best play especially if those inside him dont do anything silly. Lorne Beach gets a horror draw but outside the favs, this race is pretty thin so it's worthwhile throwing a few dollars on. Wait to late in the piece because after I mentioned it on SEN Track this morning it's been backed. Reckon we'll get much better closer to race time.
Suggested Bets: Lay Sayitaintso Joe, WIN bet No 4 Loyola Golf & small 1x4ew No 10 Lorne Beach
Race 4:
Speedie Eadie looks the right fav but has seemed to find one better lately. Having said that no doubt in better races & this is pretty thin race. A bit of nuisance speed from Elizabethan Era & Fiftyshades Cresco and I expect if either of those decide to hold they'll be struggling late. I thought Carbargo Grin isn't suited over the 1790m but a win wouldn't surprise. Winnedou has been trialing well, Sanur Beach looks well suited especially if it follows through & decides to dictate from the death. Hoppers Dream ODM after stuffing up the start last week but can win this with the right run. Come On Elvis gets Ellen Tormey back on and she drives the horse well.
Suggested Bet: Something EW for fun on Come On Elvis & Sanur Beach at double figures.
Race 5:
I really struggled with this race. Blackbooker Pocket Thedeal I thought was a play at the early odds of $9 but no thanks at half that quote. Going to land 3 pegs, maybe worse so happy to watch unless he's back out to an ew price. Accelere trialed well at Bendigo & looks to have the speed to lead but Stag Party can fly the gate but Kerryn maybe happy to sit in the death. Gobsmacked not hopeless at odds if they go nuts.
Suggested Bet: None
Race 6
The Cup heats have unfortunately had low numbers & the heats small fields. Likely to be very slowly run races for this class of animal so to advantage pegs runners.
My map has Mailman in front early with Starvin Marvin leaders back & I thought the only horse Mailman would hand up to would be the fav Our Millionaire. The risk is Khaki Nui who can come out of the gate when asked but not quick enough to cross Mailman for mine.
Suggested Bet: Not keen to get involved but if you want something for interest maybe a straight trifecta. 7/2/1
Race 7
Thought Art Of Sheng Li looked suited. Ive mapped him leading and holding One Too Many & that could mean the end of the race for the latter who's been mixing his form terribly. Art Of Sheng Li has won at the track impressively previously. Platinum Stride is flying and will be advantaged if they go too quick.
Suggested Bets: WIN bets - More on Art Of Sheng Li, less on Platinum Stride
Race 8
Game set match if Boots Electric leads as expected. Phoenix Prince the class horse of the race and I'd be surprised if he didn't run 2nd or at least 3rd. Bullet Proof Boy the other.
Suggested Bet: WIN bet Boots Electric if you like a shorty but I'll stay out of that. Trifecta for interest 4/5/6
Race 9
Loyola Golf looks your leader and hard to beat. Led from the same draw in a 50 rater here & they never got near him. Just held on at Hamilton 2 starts back but the 2nd horse there has won 3 straight since. Still Truckin could destroy these. Who knows how good he is. We didnt find out 1st up after it showed no pace early & never got a run. Based on its NZ form it should be winning against this class but I'd rather see him over the 2190m. $1.45 to find out how good he is? No thanks. Robert Crocka interests. Has some of the best early speed in the Sunraysia & I think he'll cross for fun & take a sit tonight. He just cant maintain 30s quarters and run out a race. They tried that last week & he had nothing left & was probably the first horse beaten. (His time was still ok for a race like this) Should get an easier run tonight & whilst I think he'll struggle to win, he's a huge chance to fill a placing over his favourite distance.
Suggested Bets: Small win bet Loyola Golf at $5+. Bigger place bet Robert Crocka
Race 10:
I thought Beaudacious was a nice run last time out but just not sure where he lands in running with Whereyagoinbabe trying to hold it out. Galactic Girl is a nice mare who probably hasn't gone on to be as good a horse as I thought it would be early on but this looks a nice race for her. Will she handle Mildura & she may have to death seat if they walk. Too short to find out for me. Sir Jujon will get a lovely run from the draw & looks the value play.
Suggested Bet: Small play EW Sir Jujon (beware NTD)
Race 11
I'd be amazed if Blood Moon couldn't beat these. I expect her to lead and beat them easily. Didmeselfamischief led, walked & couldn't hold them off at Globe Derby. Better with a sit & I expect they'll take that sit on Blood Moon if they can cross the 1. Headover Heals likely to be running on well late from the draw and Ronzel Micky improves each time she steps out & will challenge hard for 2nd.
Suggested Bet: Back Blood Moon WIN but if you dont like odds on pops maybe a wide tri/first four 6/ 3-5 / 3-5-7 / 1-3-5-7. Or the riskier 6 / 5 / 3-7 / 1-3-7
A race with plenty of queries and mixed form lines. Daggy Lamb may destroy these. Has been impressive albeit it from gate 1 in lesser class it's first 2. Gotta watch the old Tact Tate owners! Changeover Girl & Delwyns Son probably the other class runners of the race but again, first time here.
Happy to stick with value & horses I know that race well here. Caulonia Courage was massive in defeat last time after locking wheels at the bell. Lost about 15 metres & plenty of momentum. Finished the best of the run on horses only beaten 4 metres. Great win prior in easier. Gets the gun draw tonight. The other is Keayang Balboa. If he can cross it'll give a great run for your money. Thought he stuck on really well at this track & distance last time in a strong race. He holds his form well and I thought it was a better than 50% chance that he could cross.
Suggested Bets: 1x4 EW No 1 Caulonia Courage & No 5 Keayang Balboa
Race 2:
Blackbooker Toby O'Gara looks a play at double figure odds. Thought Goodtime Maddie & Midnight Calm would race hard early & that'll be followed up with either Marsden Heights or Heaven Attracts going to the death to keep them rolling. Sets up really well for Toby especially if he can get the right tag into the race. Hopefully no excuses tonight!
Suggested Bet: 2x3EW No 8 Toby O'Gara
Race 3
Happy to take on Sayitaintso Joe first up at the track from the draw. No doubt the best horse in the race but even money from a back row draw over the short course, no thanks! Loyola Rocknrolla looks the leader & looks the best play especially if those inside him dont do anything silly. Lorne Beach gets a horror draw but outside the favs, this race is pretty thin so it's worthwhile throwing a few dollars on. Wait to late in the piece because after I mentioned it on SEN Track this morning it's been backed. Reckon we'll get much better closer to race time.
Suggested Bets: Lay Sayitaintso Joe, WIN bet No 4 Loyola Golf & small 1x4ew No 10 Lorne Beach
Race 4:
Speedie Eadie looks the right fav but has seemed to find one better lately. Having said that no doubt in better races & this is pretty thin race. A bit of nuisance speed from Elizabethan Era & Fiftyshades Cresco and I expect if either of those decide to hold they'll be struggling late. I thought Carbargo Grin isn't suited over the 1790m but a win wouldn't surprise. Winnedou has been trialing well, Sanur Beach looks well suited especially if it follows through & decides to dictate from the death. Hoppers Dream ODM after stuffing up the start last week but can win this with the right run. Come On Elvis gets Ellen Tormey back on and she drives the horse well.
Suggested Bet: Something EW for fun on Come On Elvis & Sanur Beach at double figures.
Race 5:
I really struggled with this race. Blackbooker Pocket Thedeal I thought was a play at the early odds of $9 but no thanks at half that quote. Going to land 3 pegs, maybe worse so happy to watch unless he's back out to an ew price. Accelere trialed well at Bendigo & looks to have the speed to lead but Stag Party can fly the gate but Kerryn maybe happy to sit in the death. Gobsmacked not hopeless at odds if they go nuts.
Suggested Bet: None
Race 6
The Cup heats have unfortunately had low numbers & the heats small fields. Likely to be very slowly run races for this class of animal so to advantage pegs runners.
My map has Mailman in front early with Starvin Marvin leaders back & I thought the only horse Mailman would hand up to would be the fav Our Millionaire. The risk is Khaki Nui who can come out of the gate when asked but not quick enough to cross Mailman for mine.
Suggested Bet: Not keen to get involved but if you want something for interest maybe a straight trifecta. 7/2/1
Race 7
Thought Art Of Sheng Li looked suited. Ive mapped him leading and holding One Too Many & that could mean the end of the race for the latter who's been mixing his form terribly. Art Of Sheng Li has won at the track impressively previously. Platinum Stride is flying and will be advantaged if they go too quick.
Suggested Bets: WIN bets - More on Art Of Sheng Li, less on Platinum Stride
Race 8
Game set match if Boots Electric leads as expected. Phoenix Prince the class horse of the race and I'd be surprised if he didn't run 2nd or at least 3rd. Bullet Proof Boy the other.
Suggested Bet: WIN bet Boots Electric if you like a shorty but I'll stay out of that. Trifecta for interest 4/5/6
Race 9
Loyola Golf looks your leader and hard to beat. Led from the same draw in a 50 rater here & they never got near him. Just held on at Hamilton 2 starts back but the 2nd horse there has won 3 straight since. Still Truckin could destroy these. Who knows how good he is. We didnt find out 1st up after it showed no pace early & never got a run. Based on its NZ form it should be winning against this class but I'd rather see him over the 2190m. $1.45 to find out how good he is? No thanks. Robert Crocka interests. Has some of the best early speed in the Sunraysia & I think he'll cross for fun & take a sit tonight. He just cant maintain 30s quarters and run out a race. They tried that last week & he had nothing left & was probably the first horse beaten. (His time was still ok for a race like this) Should get an easier run tonight & whilst I think he'll struggle to win, he's a huge chance to fill a placing over his favourite distance.
Suggested Bets: Small win bet Loyola Golf at $5+. Bigger place bet Robert Crocka
Race 10:
I thought Beaudacious was a nice run last time out but just not sure where he lands in running with Whereyagoinbabe trying to hold it out. Galactic Girl is a nice mare who probably hasn't gone on to be as good a horse as I thought it would be early on but this looks a nice race for her. Will she handle Mildura & she may have to death seat if they walk. Too short to find out for me. Sir Jujon will get a lovely run from the draw & looks the value play.
Suggested Bet: Small play EW Sir Jujon (beware NTD)
Race 11
I'd be amazed if Blood Moon couldn't beat these. I expect her to lead and beat them easily. Didmeselfamischief led, walked & couldn't hold them off at Globe Derby. Better with a sit & I expect they'll take that sit on Blood Moon if they can cross the 1. Headover Heals likely to be running on well late from the draw and Ronzel Micky improves each time she steps out & will challenge hard for 2nd.
Suggested Bet: Back Blood Moon WIN but if you dont like odds on pops maybe a wide tri/first four 6/ 3-5 / 3-5-7 / 1-3-5-7. Or the riskier 6 / 5 / 3-7 / 1-3-7
Wednesday, April 13th
BEST VALUE BET
Race 9 No 1 Tactfilly Magic (WIN)
NEXT BEST
Race 3 No 2 Miss Twinkle (WIN)
BEST ROUGHY
Race 10 No 1 Outta Control (2x3EW)
Race 9 No 1 Tactfilly Magic (WIN)
NEXT BEST
Race 3 No 2 Miss Twinkle (WIN)
BEST ROUGHY
Race 10 No 1 Outta Control (2x3EW)
Meeting Summary
Race 1: NR Rating up to 50
Tricky race to start with a few first up from across the border in new stables & others stepping up in grade - plenty of mixed formlines. Rocking Wroxton was a solid win last week after finally managing to find the lead. Might end up in front again & will be thereabouts in a stronger race. Lilbitahenrytee struggles to win but it'll be the problem for Rocking Wroxton early because I reckon it can cross & maybe a question mark tonight whether it hands up or not. Horrie Otara first up for Alby Ashwood from NSW without a trial & it's form in NSW was good enough to win this & Alby can improve them. Beaudacious the other first up in Vic from WA for Frank Mercieca who's team is low flying. Anther going around without a trial & the 2nd row maybe a challenge considering it's best races have been on speed to date. Might be too good anyway? Luvuself I expect to improve from the draw over the sprint distance, as I do Jordie Dee from a soft trip who had excuses last time.
Suggested Bet: None
Race 2: Up to 50 NR
Hard not to be impressed by Hoppers Dream in probably a stronger race last week. She was the one making the 3wide move without cover after an extremely slow first half. Did well to only finish 6.7m from the winner in 4th but some finishing behind her had hard luck stories. Rojenbye franked the Broken Hill form winning last week also. Expecting her to lead these quite comfortably & get her chance but at the same time I have a small query on that race last week. Princess Lil is a danger if Michelle Phillips can put enough pressure on early to find a gap and slot in behind the leader (or even cross). She'll struggle though if she cant find the pegs. The old fella James Charles only needs luck & probably enough speed early to hold leaders back to be a major player also. Risking Have A Crack from the draw.
Suggested Bet: Win No 1 Hoppers Dream
Race 3: NR up to 50 (NEXT BEST)
Miss Twinkle looks the big improver from the draw. She was a strong 2nd to Sanur Beach 2 starts back after handing up & then was good enough after she couldn't lead over the sprint last week. I think she'll cross tonight & be very hard to beat. Should be favourite for mine. Big watch on Courtney Katarina. Hard to have if you watch her run at Ouyen but has followed that up with a nice trial here over the weekend. Could be the improver. Whereyagoinbabe has to lead to be a chance & I doubt that'll be happening here. Same can be said for Fiftyshades Cresco & Lovin Everyday but Alby can light one up from out wide on occasion and the stable is firing. Woody Nightshade struggles to win even more so over the 2190m but could be the knockout if they over do it early.
Suggested Bet: Win No 2 Miss Twinkle
Race 4: Maiden
Tough race! Bowled Gary's run last week out in front was probably good enough to give this a shake, Hanover Jack beat it home & with luck goes very close, Regal Star Im happy to leave out, Havelock was very disappointing from the death last week but as Ive mentioned before, not many can win from the death here, especially maidens. Might have to death seat again though. Shakin Sands was a much better run at Charlton & should get a nice run from the trailing draw - does look unders currently though.
Suggested Bet: Something small on Bowled Gary 1x4 EW - low confidence race
Race 5 NR 51-54
Plenty of chances in this. Robert Crocka gets the distance & draw it loves but this is as strong as it wants it. If they decide to lead, which is likely in what looks to be a slow front line, that maybe his undoing. Glam Rock maybe the one that can spear across and could cause an upset if the lead was there. Frankntank a blackbooker from last week but the draw might be a big problem. Doesnt have great early speed and if pushed can race roughly. Likely to be death seating if it can maintain early or restrained to last. Might have the job ahead from either of those 2 scenarios. Sanur Beach has the inside back row draw & even though down in class will need a ripper drive to salute. Deakin Avenue is flying. Up in grade after an impressive maiden win last time. Wouldn't be surprised if he's winning again. Another blackbooker Isitwrongtobeexcited is the best horse in the race but Im not guiding anyone into a $2.30 fav from outside the back row. Chloe Ann not hopeless especially if they decide to come off the fence early on Sanur Beach. That should get her to leaders back or 3 pegs & a win wouldn't surprise if the runs came late. Yoursnmine & Be A Good Scout chances also!
Suggested Bet: Small play 1x4 Chloe Ann for interest
Race 6 NR 50 to 54
Expecting them to settle fairly quickly after an early burn. Star Shine your likely leader & up in class after having every chance last week Im happy to leave but it'll be in the firing line turning the last corner. I thought Hard Rock Shannon could improve if Alby pushes to the death early & there maybe a 1x1 sit for him mid race. Trebek draws to get a cheap run behind Star Shine, exactly the same run he had when winning here 3 starts ago. Write About Angus was a massive run here 2 starts ago when caught 3 without cover the last lap, only to be nabbed late by Cemetery Bay. Thats very good form for this! Broke at Shep last time so you can forgive that. Might just be too good here even from the draw. Southern Burgundy was a nice win last week but this is harder. Looks unders at $5 for me. Headbanger has been racing well the past few and even though he'll have to work again at some point looks the overs in the race.
Suggested Bet: I think Write About Angus wins but happy to leave it at the price from the draw. Something for interest 1x4 Headbanger at around $20
Race 7 NR54-60
Looks Dont Write Me Off's race to lose even though this is a fair jump up in class. Led & won at this track and distance in March. Its been a strong form race with 3 subsequent winners coming from it. I cant see there being too much pressure mid race unless Midnight Calm goes forward again but doubtful after it dropped out badly from the death last week. They might run the first half ridiculously slow if thats the case & makes the 1 even harder to beat. Strong chances to non winners King Soloman & Toby Ogara if the pace is there & I can see Neds Beach run a cheeky race as it's likely to find leaders back from gate 2.
Suggested Bet: WIN No 1 Dont Write Me Off - I think there will be better odds closer to race time than the $1.9 available currently
Race 8 NR65-80
Hard to see them stopping Thomas Heights. Looks your leader and extremely hard to beat. Cemetery Bay steps up massively in grade after just getting there last week off a soft run - can place. Pocket The Deal is low flying but needs a cold sit to win, I cant see that happening here. Gilty Hanover is the class runner of the race but just not sure where she's at. Rocknroll Ronnie has been racing really well but has the task from the draw. Starvin Marvin could run a cheeky race if he found a cheap pegs run.
Suggested Bet: No bet race although I find it hard not to! Exotics for fun. 4 / 5-6-7 / 1 / Field. Trifecta/F4
Race 9 NR up to 50 (BEST VALUE BET)
Back on Tactfilly Magic even though she's 0 from 18 over the distance. With that said, she's never led over the 2190m and here's her chance to remedy that record. She was a solid 2nd 2 starts back from a backrow draw & then never a hope but finished her race off well again from a poor draw last week. Looks the early leader & there doesnt look to be any midrace pressure outside of Chalkncheddar who's stats are also average over the longer trip. I think he's the main danger along with Bezabomber, another that doesn't win out of turn. Best value of the night for me.
Suggested Bet: WIN No 1 Tactfilly Magic
Race 10 NR up to 47 (Best Roughy)
Vierra looks the one to beat especially if Sam Pascoe can keep him settled and either lead or control the race from the death. It really is a thin race depth wise & the only others I could really entertain would be Squatter Shannon but it'll have to work from the draw or try & outsprint them late in what looks to be a slowly run race on paper. Outta Control has come up big odds. He arguably beats Vierra with a clear run here in early Feb when 2nd & its $2.5 vs $26 tonight! Has had excuses since. Just needs to hold out Pinkie Promise early to be right in the mix. Best roughy of the night
Suggested Bet: 2x3 EW Outta Control
Race 11 NR up to 40
Tricky race to work out at first look. If Another Sparky finds the top I think it's game over & Alby may just work until he does. Michelle Phillips on Mods will be trying her best for that not to happen & even Harry McKinnis may push up although Ryan Sanderson is likely to restrain if it's too hot early. Thats why I think our blackbooker from last week The Mach Army is under the odds at $6.50. Likely to be 3 pegs, maybe 4 pegs. I thought we'd be getting double figures. Maybe he is just going a heap better in the new stable? Id want better odds to find out though. Mista Pumblechook struggles to win like most of these but is racing well and a win wouldn't surprise.
Suggested Bet: Something on The Mach Army if blows out to double figures
Race 12 NR 48-54
Not keen on this race & hopefully I dont need a get out! Bettorzbeach has been racing against better class of horses. First up around here can sort them out pretty quickly especially over 1790m. No thanks at odds on for me. This Is Bill will make the fav work for it. Looks your leader and will keep running them along. Thats going to suit horses like Magic In Her Moves (should like the small field too), Rays Daughter who I could forgive last starts effort - racing well prior & Come On Elvis but I just cant trust that horse. I have to mention Rainbow Rain as well, never raced better but likely to be stuck 3 pegs & need a fair bit to go right to win.
Suggested Bet: EW Rays Daughter
Tricky race to start with a few first up from across the border in new stables & others stepping up in grade - plenty of mixed formlines. Rocking Wroxton was a solid win last week after finally managing to find the lead. Might end up in front again & will be thereabouts in a stronger race. Lilbitahenrytee struggles to win but it'll be the problem for Rocking Wroxton early because I reckon it can cross & maybe a question mark tonight whether it hands up or not. Horrie Otara first up for Alby Ashwood from NSW without a trial & it's form in NSW was good enough to win this & Alby can improve them. Beaudacious the other first up in Vic from WA for Frank Mercieca who's team is low flying. Anther going around without a trial & the 2nd row maybe a challenge considering it's best races have been on speed to date. Might be too good anyway? Luvuself I expect to improve from the draw over the sprint distance, as I do Jordie Dee from a soft trip who had excuses last time.
Suggested Bet: None
Race 2: Up to 50 NR
Hard not to be impressed by Hoppers Dream in probably a stronger race last week. She was the one making the 3wide move without cover after an extremely slow first half. Did well to only finish 6.7m from the winner in 4th but some finishing behind her had hard luck stories. Rojenbye franked the Broken Hill form winning last week also. Expecting her to lead these quite comfortably & get her chance but at the same time I have a small query on that race last week. Princess Lil is a danger if Michelle Phillips can put enough pressure on early to find a gap and slot in behind the leader (or even cross). She'll struggle though if she cant find the pegs. The old fella James Charles only needs luck & probably enough speed early to hold leaders back to be a major player also. Risking Have A Crack from the draw.
Suggested Bet: Win No 1 Hoppers Dream
Race 3: NR up to 50 (NEXT BEST)
Miss Twinkle looks the big improver from the draw. She was a strong 2nd to Sanur Beach 2 starts back after handing up & then was good enough after she couldn't lead over the sprint last week. I think she'll cross tonight & be very hard to beat. Should be favourite for mine. Big watch on Courtney Katarina. Hard to have if you watch her run at Ouyen but has followed that up with a nice trial here over the weekend. Could be the improver. Whereyagoinbabe has to lead to be a chance & I doubt that'll be happening here. Same can be said for Fiftyshades Cresco & Lovin Everyday but Alby can light one up from out wide on occasion and the stable is firing. Woody Nightshade struggles to win even more so over the 2190m but could be the knockout if they over do it early.
Suggested Bet: Win No 2 Miss Twinkle
Race 4: Maiden
Tough race! Bowled Gary's run last week out in front was probably good enough to give this a shake, Hanover Jack beat it home & with luck goes very close, Regal Star Im happy to leave out, Havelock was very disappointing from the death last week but as Ive mentioned before, not many can win from the death here, especially maidens. Might have to death seat again though. Shakin Sands was a much better run at Charlton & should get a nice run from the trailing draw - does look unders currently though.
Suggested Bet: Something small on Bowled Gary 1x4 EW - low confidence race
Race 5 NR 51-54
Plenty of chances in this. Robert Crocka gets the distance & draw it loves but this is as strong as it wants it. If they decide to lead, which is likely in what looks to be a slow front line, that maybe his undoing. Glam Rock maybe the one that can spear across and could cause an upset if the lead was there. Frankntank a blackbooker from last week but the draw might be a big problem. Doesnt have great early speed and if pushed can race roughly. Likely to be death seating if it can maintain early or restrained to last. Might have the job ahead from either of those 2 scenarios. Sanur Beach has the inside back row draw & even though down in class will need a ripper drive to salute. Deakin Avenue is flying. Up in grade after an impressive maiden win last time. Wouldn't be surprised if he's winning again. Another blackbooker Isitwrongtobeexcited is the best horse in the race but Im not guiding anyone into a $2.30 fav from outside the back row. Chloe Ann not hopeless especially if they decide to come off the fence early on Sanur Beach. That should get her to leaders back or 3 pegs & a win wouldn't surprise if the runs came late. Yoursnmine & Be A Good Scout chances also!
Suggested Bet: Small play 1x4 Chloe Ann for interest
Race 6 NR 50 to 54
Expecting them to settle fairly quickly after an early burn. Star Shine your likely leader & up in class after having every chance last week Im happy to leave but it'll be in the firing line turning the last corner. I thought Hard Rock Shannon could improve if Alby pushes to the death early & there maybe a 1x1 sit for him mid race. Trebek draws to get a cheap run behind Star Shine, exactly the same run he had when winning here 3 starts ago. Write About Angus was a massive run here 2 starts ago when caught 3 without cover the last lap, only to be nabbed late by Cemetery Bay. Thats very good form for this! Broke at Shep last time so you can forgive that. Might just be too good here even from the draw. Southern Burgundy was a nice win last week but this is harder. Looks unders at $5 for me. Headbanger has been racing well the past few and even though he'll have to work again at some point looks the overs in the race.
Suggested Bet: I think Write About Angus wins but happy to leave it at the price from the draw. Something for interest 1x4 Headbanger at around $20
Race 7 NR54-60
Looks Dont Write Me Off's race to lose even though this is a fair jump up in class. Led & won at this track and distance in March. Its been a strong form race with 3 subsequent winners coming from it. I cant see there being too much pressure mid race unless Midnight Calm goes forward again but doubtful after it dropped out badly from the death last week. They might run the first half ridiculously slow if thats the case & makes the 1 even harder to beat. Strong chances to non winners King Soloman & Toby Ogara if the pace is there & I can see Neds Beach run a cheeky race as it's likely to find leaders back from gate 2.
Suggested Bet: WIN No 1 Dont Write Me Off - I think there will be better odds closer to race time than the $1.9 available currently
Race 8 NR65-80
Hard to see them stopping Thomas Heights. Looks your leader and extremely hard to beat. Cemetery Bay steps up massively in grade after just getting there last week off a soft run - can place. Pocket The Deal is low flying but needs a cold sit to win, I cant see that happening here. Gilty Hanover is the class runner of the race but just not sure where she's at. Rocknroll Ronnie has been racing really well but has the task from the draw. Starvin Marvin could run a cheeky race if he found a cheap pegs run.
Suggested Bet: No bet race although I find it hard not to! Exotics for fun. 4 / 5-6-7 / 1 / Field. Trifecta/F4
Race 9 NR up to 50 (BEST VALUE BET)
Back on Tactfilly Magic even though she's 0 from 18 over the distance. With that said, she's never led over the 2190m and here's her chance to remedy that record. She was a solid 2nd 2 starts back from a backrow draw & then never a hope but finished her race off well again from a poor draw last week. Looks the early leader & there doesnt look to be any midrace pressure outside of Chalkncheddar who's stats are also average over the longer trip. I think he's the main danger along with Bezabomber, another that doesn't win out of turn. Best value of the night for me.
Suggested Bet: WIN No 1 Tactfilly Magic
Race 10 NR up to 47 (Best Roughy)
Vierra looks the one to beat especially if Sam Pascoe can keep him settled and either lead or control the race from the death. It really is a thin race depth wise & the only others I could really entertain would be Squatter Shannon but it'll have to work from the draw or try & outsprint them late in what looks to be a slowly run race on paper. Outta Control has come up big odds. He arguably beats Vierra with a clear run here in early Feb when 2nd & its $2.5 vs $26 tonight! Has had excuses since. Just needs to hold out Pinkie Promise early to be right in the mix. Best roughy of the night
Suggested Bet: 2x3 EW Outta Control
Race 11 NR up to 40
Tricky race to work out at first look. If Another Sparky finds the top I think it's game over & Alby may just work until he does. Michelle Phillips on Mods will be trying her best for that not to happen & even Harry McKinnis may push up although Ryan Sanderson is likely to restrain if it's too hot early. Thats why I think our blackbooker from last week The Mach Army is under the odds at $6.50. Likely to be 3 pegs, maybe 4 pegs. I thought we'd be getting double figures. Maybe he is just going a heap better in the new stable? Id want better odds to find out though. Mista Pumblechook struggles to win like most of these but is racing well and a win wouldn't surprise.
Suggested Bet: Something on The Mach Army if blows out to double figures
Race 12 NR 48-54
Not keen on this race & hopefully I dont need a get out! Bettorzbeach has been racing against better class of horses. First up around here can sort them out pretty quickly especially over 1790m. No thanks at odds on for me. This Is Bill will make the fav work for it. Looks your leader and will keep running them along. Thats going to suit horses like Magic In Her Moves (should like the small field too), Rays Daughter who I could forgive last starts effort - racing well prior & Come On Elvis but I just cant trust that horse. I have to mention Rainbow Rain as well, never raced better but likely to be stuck 3 pegs & need a fair bit to go right to win.
Suggested Bet: EW Rays Daughter
Tuesday, April 5th
BEST BET
Race 5 No 2 Chalkncheddar (PLACE ONLY)
NEXT BEST
Race 12 No 3 Rocking Wroxton (WIN)
BEST ROUGHIES (with low confidence)
Race 10 No 9 Lochster (1x2EW)
Race 11 No 8 Golden Scribe (1x4EW)
Race 5 No 2 Chalkncheddar (PLACE ONLY)
NEXT BEST
Race 12 No 3 Rocking Wroxton (WIN)
BEST ROUGHIES (with low confidence)
Race 10 No 9 Lochster (1x2EW)
Race 11 No 8 Golden Scribe (1x4EW)
Meeting Summary
Race 1
Small field off 3yo's here & very hard to line up the formlines. Monsiuer Steel brings the best form via Jawsoflincoln, Ever Hoping etc & will start very short. Extremely even outside the fav. Missmalachite the one to watch. She did things wrong in her trial last week but wasnt far behind them.
Suggested Bet: None
Race 2:
Real even maiden race. Expecting Bowled Gary to improve but the query is his gate speed. Could get crossed by a few longshots. Hanover Jack would be suited if that scenario played out but its had so many chances to break through. Lets Go Exclusive can fly the gate but the 2190m is the issue if he spends too much energy early. Conrod Rocket was good enough on debut & you'd expect further improvement here from a tricky gate. Havelock had excuses against a much better field at Ouyen & deserves to be favourite. Deaken Avenue was an unlucky 2nd last time off a cushy run 3 pegs. They've found it in the market though & from the bad draw, I'm happy to watch.
Suggested Bet: Maybe a small bet on Havelock for interest.
Race 3
Expecting Lilbitahenrytee to fly out and cross early & hand up to Star Shine or even Miss Twinkle who Ellen Tormey seems to get off the gate better than any other. I'd want to be on whoever crosses, both of those horses are racing well in similar grade. Takidah has been disappointing it's last 2 post a nice win here over this distance in February. Change of stables might fire her up but a mare losing form isn't ideal. Mini Major & Tactfilly Magic's only have wining chance if they go too hard early.
Suggested Bet: Backing either Star Shine or Miss Twinkle in the run if either of those find the front
Race 4
Far too hard this race with too many question marks.
Suggested Bet: None
Race 5 (BEST BET)
Still Truckin (based on NZ form) looks to have a mortgage on this race. The 1 draw may not be ideal but you'd expect it to race through the classes quickly. Overreaction might be a pest early, does have plenty of early gate speed. Robert Crocker draws to get the run it likes over his favourite distance but could be 3 pegs if the fav is crossed & following Overreaction may not be ideal. Southern Burgundy hasn't had much go right since joining the Attard stable & I expect improvement here with luck & Chalkncheddar he's the value play from the draw for a place. Great 2nd behind Yapper at Maryborough & then had a few things go wrong at Ouyen. He's come up a big price here for a horse thats last win was at this track and distance from the death breaking 2minutes.
Suggested Bet: Place bet Chalkncheddar
Race 6
So much speed in this at first glance on paper. Goodtime Maddie will be trying it's hardest to hold from gate 1, Blazin Beauty will be handle bars down trying to cross to get her favourite position in front, Platinum Prince doesnt have the same speed but will build momentum & push forward and Artistic Cowboy must push forward to have any chance. How quickly they settle will be the key to this race. That why I'm happy to waste a few $ on Cemetery Bay. The speed and small field should suit. Great win last time & its follow up trial got a big tick. I wouldve made him the best value of the night if not for the NTD with only 7 runners.
Suggested Bet: 2x3 EW Cemetery Bay
Race 7
A few in form horses stepping up in class here and others dropping back making things a little difficult to line up & I wouldn't be advising to back the fav Isitwrongtobeexcited from the draw, same as the 2nd fav Roll With Ron. Maybe a small play around some longshots. Rainbow Rain has never raced better. Getting good odds because there is speed underneath and where he lands in the run is a ? Neds Beach is the other, 2nd row not ideal but this is a significant drop don in class. If Sanderson manages to find a cheap run, he's a knockout chance. A race with a heap of winning chances.
Suggested Bet: Small play 1x4 Neds Beach & Rainbow Rain
Race 8
The 2 Mildura fast class horses get into this race very well thanks to the conditions, Gilty Hanover & Murranji Track. Gilty Hanover is now 3rd up from a spell & ran ok in the Ouyen Cup last week, beating home Murranji Track but that horse had a few excuses. I dont think there should be as big as gap in the market as there currently is but the advantage maybe with Murranji Track following through a better beginner from the 2nd row. I think the winner comes from those 2. Best drive wins!
Suggested Bet: Win bet Gilty Hanover at around $5.
Race 9
Not a massive fan of the fast class races where there are multiple stable runners. Expect Ozzie Battler to fly the gate, lead & slam the brakes on. That style of run has brought Bernie Winkle undone in the past over the spint. Mailman might be the knock out from leaders back if its a real slow middle half too.
Suggested Bet: Something on Ozzie Battler & Mailman to win for interest
Race 10
As soon as the fields were released I was thinking here comes the double figure value for Rays Daughter but unfortunately not. $4.80 with the TAB currently & I'd suggest thats slightly unders. She's flying though, just needs luck because I'd say Squatter Shannon will lead & wont hand up. That horse looked disappointing at Ouyen but reviewing the race, just went too quick in the middle stages of the race. This is no easier and other horses from that same race ran better. One of those is Magic In Her Moves who just improves lengths with a sit. Not sure what they do from the draw tonight & whilst I think she deserves to be fav, $2.40 TAB is unders for mine. Caulonia Courage keeps racing well but has the job from gate 6, Ive got a question mark on Double O Heaven's Globe Derby form and I couldn't back Come On Elvis. Does plenty wrong. Lochster is the interesting runner. I doubt he can win but was a good enough run for 4th in a similar race last time after 8 weeks off. Again he's back after a month with no trial so maybe there are some issues behind the scenes but assuming he's fitness is ok, $61/$10 is worth wasting some $ on especially over the 2190m
Suggested Bet: 1x2EW Lochster with little confidence
Race 11
Thought Whereyagoinbabe could lead these & maybe improve on it's latest runs but it has been a little disappointing. Northern Terror is a strong horse usually but dropped out 1st up after a soft run. Trialed at Gawler since and was ok but Im happy to leave it out. Ozzie Daybreak would need to improve on what I saw at Ouyen last week. Have A Crack looks really well placed from the draw if the 1 holds. My old mate Golden Scribe wont be hopeless in this. I just really hope they try & take 3 pegs early & hopefully the runs will come late.
Suggested Bet: Backing Have A Crack the win & something 1x4ew Golden Scribe
Race 12 (Next Best)
Taking a bit of a risk here on the assumption that Rock In Heaven will hand up tonight after some poor performances in front. That'll finally give Rocking Wroxton its chance to break its maiden. Its been racing extremely well lately, especially vs similar class. Forget last week in a stronger race. Was a great 2nd prior behind James Charles. They gapped the rest in the race. (Rock In Heaven was tiring at the bell in that race!) Im worried about Mods & Vieira if Rocking Wroxton cant lead but trusting my plentiful gut that I've got the map right on this one.
Suggested Bet: Win Rocking Wroxton
Small field off 3yo's here & very hard to line up the formlines. Monsiuer Steel brings the best form via Jawsoflincoln, Ever Hoping etc & will start very short. Extremely even outside the fav. Missmalachite the one to watch. She did things wrong in her trial last week but wasnt far behind them.
Suggested Bet: None
Race 2:
Real even maiden race. Expecting Bowled Gary to improve but the query is his gate speed. Could get crossed by a few longshots. Hanover Jack would be suited if that scenario played out but its had so many chances to break through. Lets Go Exclusive can fly the gate but the 2190m is the issue if he spends too much energy early. Conrod Rocket was good enough on debut & you'd expect further improvement here from a tricky gate. Havelock had excuses against a much better field at Ouyen & deserves to be favourite. Deaken Avenue was an unlucky 2nd last time off a cushy run 3 pegs. They've found it in the market though & from the bad draw, I'm happy to watch.
Suggested Bet: Maybe a small bet on Havelock for interest.
Race 3
Expecting Lilbitahenrytee to fly out and cross early & hand up to Star Shine or even Miss Twinkle who Ellen Tormey seems to get off the gate better than any other. I'd want to be on whoever crosses, both of those horses are racing well in similar grade. Takidah has been disappointing it's last 2 post a nice win here over this distance in February. Change of stables might fire her up but a mare losing form isn't ideal. Mini Major & Tactfilly Magic's only have wining chance if they go too hard early.
Suggested Bet: Backing either Star Shine or Miss Twinkle in the run if either of those find the front
Race 4
Far too hard this race with too many question marks.
Suggested Bet: None
Race 5 (BEST BET)
Still Truckin (based on NZ form) looks to have a mortgage on this race. The 1 draw may not be ideal but you'd expect it to race through the classes quickly. Overreaction might be a pest early, does have plenty of early gate speed. Robert Crocker draws to get the run it likes over his favourite distance but could be 3 pegs if the fav is crossed & following Overreaction may not be ideal. Southern Burgundy hasn't had much go right since joining the Attard stable & I expect improvement here with luck & Chalkncheddar he's the value play from the draw for a place. Great 2nd behind Yapper at Maryborough & then had a few things go wrong at Ouyen. He's come up a big price here for a horse thats last win was at this track and distance from the death breaking 2minutes.
Suggested Bet: Place bet Chalkncheddar
Race 6
So much speed in this at first glance on paper. Goodtime Maddie will be trying it's hardest to hold from gate 1, Blazin Beauty will be handle bars down trying to cross to get her favourite position in front, Platinum Prince doesnt have the same speed but will build momentum & push forward and Artistic Cowboy must push forward to have any chance. How quickly they settle will be the key to this race. That why I'm happy to waste a few $ on Cemetery Bay. The speed and small field should suit. Great win last time & its follow up trial got a big tick. I wouldve made him the best value of the night if not for the NTD with only 7 runners.
Suggested Bet: 2x3 EW Cemetery Bay
Race 7
A few in form horses stepping up in class here and others dropping back making things a little difficult to line up & I wouldn't be advising to back the fav Isitwrongtobeexcited from the draw, same as the 2nd fav Roll With Ron. Maybe a small play around some longshots. Rainbow Rain has never raced better. Getting good odds because there is speed underneath and where he lands in the run is a ? Neds Beach is the other, 2nd row not ideal but this is a significant drop don in class. If Sanderson manages to find a cheap run, he's a knockout chance. A race with a heap of winning chances.
Suggested Bet: Small play 1x4 Neds Beach & Rainbow Rain
Race 8
The 2 Mildura fast class horses get into this race very well thanks to the conditions, Gilty Hanover & Murranji Track. Gilty Hanover is now 3rd up from a spell & ran ok in the Ouyen Cup last week, beating home Murranji Track but that horse had a few excuses. I dont think there should be as big as gap in the market as there currently is but the advantage maybe with Murranji Track following through a better beginner from the 2nd row. I think the winner comes from those 2. Best drive wins!
Suggested Bet: Win bet Gilty Hanover at around $5.
Race 9
Not a massive fan of the fast class races where there are multiple stable runners. Expect Ozzie Battler to fly the gate, lead & slam the brakes on. That style of run has brought Bernie Winkle undone in the past over the spint. Mailman might be the knock out from leaders back if its a real slow middle half too.
Suggested Bet: Something on Ozzie Battler & Mailman to win for interest
Race 10
As soon as the fields were released I was thinking here comes the double figure value for Rays Daughter but unfortunately not. $4.80 with the TAB currently & I'd suggest thats slightly unders. She's flying though, just needs luck because I'd say Squatter Shannon will lead & wont hand up. That horse looked disappointing at Ouyen but reviewing the race, just went too quick in the middle stages of the race. This is no easier and other horses from that same race ran better. One of those is Magic In Her Moves who just improves lengths with a sit. Not sure what they do from the draw tonight & whilst I think she deserves to be fav, $2.40 TAB is unders for mine. Caulonia Courage keeps racing well but has the job from gate 6, Ive got a question mark on Double O Heaven's Globe Derby form and I couldn't back Come On Elvis. Does plenty wrong. Lochster is the interesting runner. I doubt he can win but was a good enough run for 4th in a similar race last time after 8 weeks off. Again he's back after a month with no trial so maybe there are some issues behind the scenes but assuming he's fitness is ok, $61/$10 is worth wasting some $ on especially over the 2190m
Suggested Bet: 1x2EW Lochster with little confidence
Race 11
Thought Whereyagoinbabe could lead these & maybe improve on it's latest runs but it has been a little disappointing. Northern Terror is a strong horse usually but dropped out 1st up after a soft run. Trialed at Gawler since and was ok but Im happy to leave it out. Ozzie Daybreak would need to improve on what I saw at Ouyen last week. Have A Crack looks really well placed from the draw if the 1 holds. My old mate Golden Scribe wont be hopeless in this. I just really hope they try & take 3 pegs early & hopefully the runs will come late.
Suggested Bet: Backing Have A Crack the win & something 1x4ew Golden Scribe
Race 12 (Next Best)
Taking a bit of a risk here on the assumption that Rock In Heaven will hand up tonight after some poor performances in front. That'll finally give Rocking Wroxton its chance to break its maiden. Its been racing extremely well lately, especially vs similar class. Forget last week in a stronger race. Was a great 2nd prior behind James Charles. They gapped the rest in the race. (Rock In Heaven was tiring at the bell in that race!) Im worried about Mods & Vieira if Rocking Wroxton cant lead but trusting my plentiful gut that I've got the map right on this one.
Suggested Bet: Win Rocking Wroxton
TUESDAY, MARCH 22nd
BEST BET
Race 3 No 2 Jordie Dee
NEXT BEST
Race 5 No 1 Chenoa Princess (PLACE ONLY)
BEST ROUGHY
Race 11 No 7 The Mach Army (1x4EW)
Race 3 No 2 Jordie Dee
NEXT BEST
Race 5 No 1 Chenoa Princess (PLACE ONLY)
BEST ROUGHY
Race 11 No 7 The Mach Army (1x4EW)
MEETING SUMMARY
Race 1
I was close to tipping Shadow Terror here but he’ll be crossed early & I just not sure if Robert Crocka is the right horse to be following over the 2190m.
Woody Nightshade runs bet over the short but could place, Classic Reactor the class runner but is into its right price now from the draw. Rhyflective can win if Robert Crocka handed up to it but I doubt they’ll hand up.
Suggested Bet: Maybe a small play Shadow Terror if he drifts out to $5+
Race 2:
Expect Bobsled Boy to lead & win but Yoursnmine might make it interesting early. Throw Mods into any multiples, it’ll run a cheeky race from the draw.
Suggested Bet: No Bet
BEST BET
Race 3 No 2 Jordie Dee
27 start maiden but only her 2nd run around Mildura. Last week she showed early gate speed but just couldn’t cross the leader & eventual winner. Ended up 1x1 & eventually in the death for the last 600 metres & battled away well for a solid 2nd. It was good time for this class of horse. She’ll improve again off that, I have her leading tonight & a repeat performance of last week wins this race.
Race 4
Good early speed from 3,4 & 5 & they may go a little too quick early. Then expect Loyola Golf & Moneymakinmonkey to try & bet the first ones to race in the death. Should ensure a good tempo throughout. Moneymakinmonkey I blackbooked last week but it’s going to have to work hard again tonight & Im not sure the 2190m is going to suit. (Backed into $5.50 now which I thought was unders) I doubt the lead will be there for Loyola Golf once it does make a move so it’s a risk. If Cobargo Grin finds it’s form it would be right in this but it’s last start run is a worry (50% of its wins are on this track & distance) Chloe Ann will need luck as she’s likely to end up 3 pegs in the run maybe worse. If the runs appear, she’s right in it. Tough race!
Suggested Bet: Something 2 & 7 for fun
NEXT BEST
Race 5 No 1 Chenoa Princess
She’s had 4 starts for Michael Pearce now for a win & 2 placings, only missing the place once after breaking. Thought she could hold out Fifty Shades Cresco early & secure the great run on Miss Social Medias back & give her every hope to finish top 3. The slight query is she’s 2 months between runs without a trial but only has to be close to near what she produced last time to be in the finish. Connor Clark in the cart no disadvantage either!
Suggested Bet: Place No1 Chenoa Princess
Race 6
Another fast front line here that’ll get Luke Humphries frothing at the mouth early. All of them except the 5 are likely to push forward. You’d expect that to suit Write About Angus & he’s the right fav but I’m happy to watch at his first go around Mildura.
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 7
Too many crossed formlines for mine, the more I looked at this race the more I got confused!
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 8
Looks another keen go early with 1,2,,5 pushing hard & the race will be decided on how quickly they settle and slow the pace. Plenty of chances in this & another race I’m happy to watch.
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 9
Expecting improvement from Lovin Everyday after a few ordinary runs over the 2190m – back to the 1790m is her go. Last Artist will push forward and is likely to land the death, if not 1x1. I think Albie Ashwood will suit him as well as he takes a bit of driving to get going. Changingoftheguard was a better run but looks very short in the market. I’d be backing Lorne Beach if he’d drawn better. Gate 6 is a huge negative but with any sort of luck in running a knock out chance. United likely to improve from a better draw & an easier run but another that looks unders. Headbanger needs to show more than he did last week & On Wheels wouldn’t surprise either.
Suggested Bet: Something on Last Artist
Race 10
Another even front row & could be another race where they spend too much petrol early. That’s what Fortitudo needs. Draws to follow through nicely, might end up 1x2/3 & produce his usual honest finish. I think I had hair last time he saluted but he’s racing well and will be thereabouts in another even field
Suggested Bet: 1x4EW Fortitudo with no great confidence
BEST ROUGHY
Race 11 No 7 The Mach Army (1x4EW)
This is a weak old race, many horribly out of form so makes getting the speed map right even more important. I had the 1 leading easily in this race & I thought The Mach Army could push up & hold leaders back. His figure form looks average but I actually marked him as one to follow last week after he was stuck in the death after racing 3 & 4 wide early. This class of horse would usually tail out after that sort of run but he battled away well to only be beaten 11 metres.
I was close to tipping Shadow Terror here but he’ll be crossed early & I just not sure if Robert Crocka is the right horse to be following over the 2190m.
Woody Nightshade runs bet over the short but could place, Classic Reactor the class runner but is into its right price now from the draw. Rhyflective can win if Robert Crocka handed up to it but I doubt they’ll hand up.
Suggested Bet: Maybe a small play Shadow Terror if he drifts out to $5+
Race 2:
Expect Bobsled Boy to lead & win but Yoursnmine might make it interesting early. Throw Mods into any multiples, it’ll run a cheeky race from the draw.
Suggested Bet: No Bet
BEST BET
Race 3 No 2 Jordie Dee
27 start maiden but only her 2nd run around Mildura. Last week she showed early gate speed but just couldn’t cross the leader & eventual winner. Ended up 1x1 & eventually in the death for the last 600 metres & battled away well for a solid 2nd. It was good time for this class of horse. She’ll improve again off that, I have her leading tonight & a repeat performance of last week wins this race.
Race 4
Good early speed from 3,4 & 5 & they may go a little too quick early. Then expect Loyola Golf & Moneymakinmonkey to try & bet the first ones to race in the death. Should ensure a good tempo throughout. Moneymakinmonkey I blackbooked last week but it’s going to have to work hard again tonight & Im not sure the 2190m is going to suit. (Backed into $5.50 now which I thought was unders) I doubt the lead will be there for Loyola Golf once it does make a move so it’s a risk. If Cobargo Grin finds it’s form it would be right in this but it’s last start run is a worry (50% of its wins are on this track & distance) Chloe Ann will need luck as she’s likely to end up 3 pegs in the run maybe worse. If the runs appear, she’s right in it. Tough race!
Suggested Bet: Something 2 & 7 for fun
NEXT BEST
Race 5 No 1 Chenoa Princess
She’s had 4 starts for Michael Pearce now for a win & 2 placings, only missing the place once after breaking. Thought she could hold out Fifty Shades Cresco early & secure the great run on Miss Social Medias back & give her every hope to finish top 3. The slight query is she’s 2 months between runs without a trial but only has to be close to near what she produced last time to be in the finish. Connor Clark in the cart no disadvantage either!
Suggested Bet: Place No1 Chenoa Princess
Race 6
Another fast front line here that’ll get Luke Humphries frothing at the mouth early. All of them except the 5 are likely to push forward. You’d expect that to suit Write About Angus & he’s the right fav but I’m happy to watch at his first go around Mildura.
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 7
Too many crossed formlines for mine, the more I looked at this race the more I got confused!
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 8
Looks another keen go early with 1,2,,5 pushing hard & the race will be decided on how quickly they settle and slow the pace. Plenty of chances in this & another race I’m happy to watch.
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 9
Expecting improvement from Lovin Everyday after a few ordinary runs over the 2190m – back to the 1790m is her go. Last Artist will push forward and is likely to land the death, if not 1x1. I think Albie Ashwood will suit him as well as he takes a bit of driving to get going. Changingoftheguard was a better run but looks very short in the market. I’d be backing Lorne Beach if he’d drawn better. Gate 6 is a huge negative but with any sort of luck in running a knock out chance. United likely to improve from a better draw & an easier run but another that looks unders. Headbanger needs to show more than he did last week & On Wheels wouldn’t surprise either.
Suggested Bet: Something on Last Artist
Race 10
Another even front row & could be another race where they spend too much petrol early. That’s what Fortitudo needs. Draws to follow through nicely, might end up 1x2/3 & produce his usual honest finish. I think I had hair last time he saluted but he’s racing well and will be thereabouts in another even field
Suggested Bet: 1x4EW Fortitudo with no great confidence
BEST ROUGHY
Race 11 No 7 The Mach Army (1x4EW)
This is a weak old race, many horribly out of form so makes getting the speed map right even more important. I had the 1 leading easily in this race & I thought The Mach Army could push up & hold leaders back. His figure form looks average but I actually marked him as one to follow last week after he was stuck in the death after racing 3 & 4 wide early. This class of horse would usually tail out after that sort of run but he battled away well to only be beaten 11 metres.
WEDNESDAY, MARCH 16TH
BEST BET
Race 5 No 7 Von Art
NEXT BEST
Race 11 No 3 Tactfilly Magic
BEST ROUGHY
Race 6 No 2 Goodtime Maddie
1x4EW
Race 5 No 7 Von Art
NEXT BEST
Race 11 No 3 Tactfilly Magic
BEST ROUGHY
Race 6 No 2 Goodtime Maddie
1x4EW
Meeting Summary
Race 1
Lady Bubbles gets her chance but I couldn’t back her at the $2.80. I expect Luvuself to improve and this is weaker than she met last week but the question is where she lands in the run from gate 3. Jordie Dee was a good run at Broken Hill last week but that was from gate 1. Gate 4 here & if she did cross you’d want to be on in the run. Lets Go Exclusive looks like being leaders back – just needs a run late to be in the finish. Hanover Jack has just been too poor his past couple but a win wouldn’t surprise back at his best. Bowled Gary didn’t show enough at the trials for mine, watch only.
Suggested Bet: EW play on Lets Go Exclusive to kick off the night in a low confidence race.
Race 2
Expecting Elizabethan Era to lead them after an early burn & she’s racing better than ever. Im jumping off Shadow Terror but if Jack Laugher did manage to fly the gate & lead like this bloke can, he’ll be mighty hard to catch. Sir Jujon is well travelled & showed zero when racing in Tassy last prep. Comes into this with a slow trial win & I’d rather watch than back him tonight. Robert Crocker looks the main danger to Elizabethan Era especially if the pressure is on early. This is his pet distance. Apache Wind has really dropped off its past 2 but a return to form would see him right in this, especially if 3 pegs, but geeez he’s hard to catch. Ozzie Daybreak was better than what it looks like on paper last week. He’ll be winning this type of race soon it’s just an awful draw for him. To be honest, everything in this race has a chance on best form!
Suggested Bet: No 7 Robert Crocka
Race 3
Not spending too much time on this race. Miss Social Media should be winning & it could be a pegs dominated race if my speed map is right with her leading, Mista Pumblechook leaders back & Stonebridge Star 3 pegs. Blackbooker Last Artist draws poorly & just looks to have too big a job to win this but if something happened to the fav & speed maps were thrown out the window a win wouldn’t surprise – he’s racing well.
Suggested Bet: 5-1-7 tri for more & 5-7-1 tri for less
Race 4
I expect Loyola Golf to fly the gate & lead Ironbark Fella. $1.75 looks very short for a horse that’s been a beaten fav the past 2. Sanur Beach has been real plain its past 2. Maybe it can improve with a quieter drive but it’s a big maybe. Moneymakinmonkey interests. Good 3rd at Globe Derby last start 2nd up. Strips fitter & could be the one swopping over the top of them. The biggest danger to its chances is if they do walk up front but no one better to have in the cart to sum up when to move than Dani Hill.
Suggested Bet: EW No 8 Moneymakinmonkey
Race 5
BEST BET No 7 Von Art
Forget his 1st up run at Mildura when pestered in the lead throughout & his run was much better at Swan Hill last week & potentially cost himself the race when he hung in down the straight behind the inform Beach Time. He’ll follow his main dangers every move Blazin Beauty who’ll no doubt be hard to beat but I think their odds should be the other way around.
Suggested Bet: No 7 Von Art
Saver 1 & 7 Quinella
Race 6
BEST ROUGHY
No 2 Goodtime Maddie
This mare is so consistent, hardly ever runs a bad race. Run a super race from the death around Swan Hill over the short trip when hanging on for 3rd against the same class of horse. Gets a better draw here thx to the mares concession & the extra distance suits. Has a better than 55% placing strike rate over this T & D. We’ve missed the $23 early but she still very backable at $14/3.3
This race is full of chances. Tiddly Winx looks your leader & a repeat of her 2nd 2 starts ago goes very close here. Cemetery Bay has plenty of talent but happy to skip him 1st up as he’s unlikely to lead. Headbanger was a good trial 2nd & looked like he needed that hit out. He could blow these away but happy to stay away and be proven wrong from the draw. Stormont Star will be sneaking runs along the pegs & has to be thrown into multiples. Neds Beach is flying from better draws but can win. Thomas Heights has been impressive leading and winning his past 3 but looks unders from the backrow draw. Toby OGara was probably a little disappointing at Swan Hill, thought he’d finish off better but another in great form.
Suggested Bet: 1x4EW Goodtime Maddie
Race 7
I struggled to find a bet here. Magic Feeling flies the gate and is rightfully fav but not in the red. Trebek chances improve if he can cross the 1 but that’s a 50/50 call on whether he can cross. There are probably a few in this that are better than him though. Rays Daughter looks cherry ripe to run a big race here but she’ll need to work hard to win from the draw & is slightly up in class. Waiting For You, Lorne Beach & Caulonia Courage will enjoy this class.
Suggested Bet: Maybe something small Waiting For You & Lorne Beach at the odds in a tough race
Race 8
No 7 Cullenburn
Was my value bet of the night but the $6.50 is long gone! Nothing wrong with his recent SA form, his latest run a 5th in the Gawler Cup. I think Ellen Tormey will be aggressive enough early to hold leaders back & he showed here in December he can rattle of a quick closing sectionals when beating Bernie Winkle.
$4 now for Sammys Ideal looks tempting. If last week is anything to go by he’ll lead easily. The question mark is on how much pressure do they apply mid race? It may not matter because he showed last week he can roll along and still finish off his race. 1790m looks ideal.
Suggested Bet: Back them both. No 1 & 7
Race 9
Fortitudo hasn’t won for 4 years and is unlikely to if the 1 gets an easy lead so more of a place play but geez he’s racing well. The horse is racing extremely well in this class & I’m hoping the 3 & 5 come out humming early & they spend too much petrol. At $17/3.5 worth wasting a few dollars on to find out in a thin race.
Suggested Bet: Small 1x4EW Fortitudo
Race 10
Tough race! Quite Contrary will likely burn across and lead but holding on is really going to depend on how hard he works early. She aint that strong yet. Deadline loves to find one better than it & its only win came when it led. Wont be leading here. If Tiana is aggressive on Rocknroll Tallara and can hold leaders back shes the value at $10.
Suggested Bet: Small play No 1 Rocknroll Tallara
Race 11
Looks like Tactfilly Magic’s race to lose. Should be leading & have every possible chance. Im struggling to find any dangers if she leads. The only concern might be how hard The Mach Army pushes early as it maybe a pest from the breeze but has restrained from this draw recently.
Suggested Bet: No 3 Tactfilly Magic @ $2+
Race 12
Bobsled Boy won well at Yarra Valley first up for the new camp. Looks your leader and deserved fav. Shelby Grace, Im still trying to figure out why she went so poorly last week but she’ll be better suited maybe tucking in and settling behind the fav early. Hopefully that’ll settle her much better than last week & you’ll see an improved performance. Doesn’t look to be a race that’ll have much pace on after they settle and the others may struggle to get into it.
Suggested Bet: 1x4EW Shelby Grace (One more chance!)
Small straight trifecta play 1-2-3 – Pegs / Pegs / Pegs
FRIDAY, MARCH 4th
BEST BET
Race 9 No 1 Shelby Grace @ $2.50+
NEXT BEST
Race 2 No 4 Shadow Terror @ $2.50+
VALUE
Race 5 No 7 Bettor Star @ $7+ (EW 1x4)
**Odds quoted are my suggested odds as at Thursday afternoon
Race 9 No 1 Shelby Grace @ $2.50+
NEXT BEST
Race 2 No 4 Shadow Terror @ $2.50+
VALUE
Race 5 No 7 Bettor Star @ $7+ (EW 1x4)
**Odds quoted are my suggested odds as at Thursday afternoon
Race 1:
I'll sit this one out and concentrate on the first beer of the weekend.
Blackbookers Engaged
Lets Go Exclusive – Needs a front row draw before I’d consider backing but racing well – placing wouldn’t surprise
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Race 2
Suggested Bet: WIN No 4 Shadow Terror.
This is the sort of race Shadow Terror races well in and Jack Laugher has been aggressive on him in the past. I think he's your leader & hard to beat. Last time he led at this track & distance they ran a tick over 2 minutes after he was pressured throughout - only beaten 6 metres (beat Golden Scribe by 12m) Looks to be no horses in this race that'll apply pressure mid race either & he could get away with some very cheap sectionals here. Main danger is Stonebridge Star who's likely to be following his every move.
Blackbookers Engaged
Golden Scribe: Undecided whether we follow up with a bet here or not. You have to put faith in Michael Francis to push forward early to see if he can lead & maybe take a sit – it’s a front row void of great speed. If he doesn’t could end up anywhere from the draw (was 3 wide from gate 3 last week before restraining to last) This is a race that’s likely to be extremely slow after they settle and being midfield or beyond at the bell wont be the place to be if they do walk. He's a hard horse to price but with the uncertainty of where he'll be in the run I'd be wanting decent double figure odds to warrant an EW bet
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Race 3
Found this race real hard to line up. If Luvuself replicates what she produced at the trials on the 20th, shes a chance but just wary it was a very slow trial. Beartasic Writer wont love having the 2 on it's inside. I doubt it can cross but Herby is in the cart. 4 & 6 both fly the gate too & this class of horse cant afford to burn too much early.
Rays Daughter might be worth considering but it was slightly disappointing 1st up. Worth noting it improved significantly when winning 2nd up last time in.
Ozzie Daybreak's trial suggested he's ready but the draw makes it tough
Blackbookers Engaged
Beartastic Writer: Big run last week, Herby stays on & with the right run can definitely win. Id say this race has a bit more depth to it than last week though
The Mach Army: Will need a lot to go right from the draw
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Race 4
Looks like there will be fireworks early here. 3, 4, 5 & 6 are all early speed horses and there's a chance they'll cook themselves over the sprint.
Magic In Her Moves will be suited and just needs to find a way away from the pegs early and similar can be said for Vindicate.
A couple of roughies that maybe worth wasting $5 on are Lorne Beach & my old mate Lochster. Lorne Beach's run wasn't bad last week & probably only had a winning hope in this if drawn to lead but can place if stealing runs late. Lochster is first up after a short break which is a concern but he was running great races mid last year in this grade. I wouldn't be surprised if he knocked them off at big odds if the early fireworks occur.
Should be an interesting race
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Race 5
Suggested Bet: No 7 Bettor Star I’d rather him be out in front setting a solid pacer but draws to follow the leader & likely fav who steps up in grade & distance. This fella races best over the 2190m & you can pretty much ignore his Swan Hill form, just doesn’t seem to produce his best on the bigger track. Hopefully there’s enough pressure on throughout that ensure it’s just a slog home which will suit as he ain’t the fastest sprinter. Great EW play
Blackbookers Engaged
Toby O’Gara: Worried about where it’ll be in the run from this gate with Thomas Heights the easy leader.
Morningstar Gold: Can win, could brain them! Up in grade, bad draw and he's likely to be very short odds but who knows how good he is if put into the race earlier & the longer trip might allow Sam Pascoe to do just that.
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Race 6
Hard to see Roll With Ron losing if he holds but he is 1 from 22! Fine Artist the best performed horse in the race but it's a tricky draw for it & likely have to breeze the entire trip. Not many can around Mildura. Orama might be the best value play if getting $3+ a place.
Blackbookers Engaged
Caulonia Courage: If he could somehow cross the 1 he’s a chance but I think the 1 will hold him. Likely to start unders
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Race 7
These races are usually fairly hard to work out & this gets even harder with a couple 1st up around Mildura especially Motu Premier, he could destroy these but Mildura can do strange things to horse at their first look..
Thought Duke Of Dundee was a good run when 3rd last time over the sprint from the death even though it was just a sprint home. Never missed a place around here & from my eye looks the leader without a great deal of early pressure. Not confident but maybe EW No 3 Duke Of Dundee - more the place than win
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Race 8
Sanur Beach – as stated last week I don’t think the 6 week spell suited and there is probably an argument that he’s a better sit sprinter than leader. If the 1 behaves itself and leads, Sanur Beach will get his chance if he gaps open up in what looks a thin race. Happy to have a bet if we're getting close to $5
Blackbookers Engaged
FiftyShades Cresco: I just don’t think the lead will be there with the 1 & 2 having the necessary speed to hold him out & he’s struggled around here when he cant find the pegs
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Race 9
Suggested Bet: WIN No 1 Shelby Grace – she put together 2 good wins in similar company here in late Jan and just hasn’t had any luck the past 2. Draws to be leading or take the trail on the right horse. Best play of the night for me.
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Race 10
Wemen Bella gets the mare concession & hence the good draw for this & Dani Hill stays on. Won well against a similar class 3 starts ago & followed that up with another grinding win at Port Pirie last week. I don’t think they can cross her early & out in front she’ll get every chance again but we'll probably get the price to match.
Blackbookers Engaged
Princess Lil – from the trials. Was driven far too aggressively at Broken Hill last week & was a tired horse late. She could run a race at odds with an easier run here.
No Emotion – up in class and no hope here
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Race 11
No Suggested Bets – Von Art looks the one to beat – trialed well at Globe behind higher class horses and I dare say he'll have a short quote to match
I'll sit this one out and concentrate on the first beer of the weekend.
Blackbookers Engaged
Lets Go Exclusive – Needs a front row draw before I’d consider backing but racing well – placing wouldn’t surprise
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Race 2
Suggested Bet: WIN No 4 Shadow Terror.
This is the sort of race Shadow Terror races well in and Jack Laugher has been aggressive on him in the past. I think he's your leader & hard to beat. Last time he led at this track & distance they ran a tick over 2 minutes after he was pressured throughout - only beaten 6 metres (beat Golden Scribe by 12m) Looks to be no horses in this race that'll apply pressure mid race either & he could get away with some very cheap sectionals here. Main danger is Stonebridge Star who's likely to be following his every move.
Blackbookers Engaged
Golden Scribe: Undecided whether we follow up with a bet here or not. You have to put faith in Michael Francis to push forward early to see if he can lead & maybe take a sit – it’s a front row void of great speed. If he doesn’t could end up anywhere from the draw (was 3 wide from gate 3 last week before restraining to last) This is a race that’s likely to be extremely slow after they settle and being midfield or beyond at the bell wont be the place to be if they do walk. He's a hard horse to price but with the uncertainty of where he'll be in the run I'd be wanting decent double figure odds to warrant an EW bet
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Race 3
Found this race real hard to line up. If Luvuself replicates what she produced at the trials on the 20th, shes a chance but just wary it was a very slow trial. Beartasic Writer wont love having the 2 on it's inside. I doubt it can cross but Herby is in the cart. 4 & 6 both fly the gate too & this class of horse cant afford to burn too much early.
Rays Daughter might be worth considering but it was slightly disappointing 1st up. Worth noting it improved significantly when winning 2nd up last time in.
Ozzie Daybreak's trial suggested he's ready but the draw makes it tough
Blackbookers Engaged
Beartastic Writer: Big run last week, Herby stays on & with the right run can definitely win. Id say this race has a bit more depth to it than last week though
The Mach Army: Will need a lot to go right from the draw
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Race 4
Looks like there will be fireworks early here. 3, 4, 5 & 6 are all early speed horses and there's a chance they'll cook themselves over the sprint.
Magic In Her Moves will be suited and just needs to find a way away from the pegs early and similar can be said for Vindicate.
A couple of roughies that maybe worth wasting $5 on are Lorne Beach & my old mate Lochster. Lorne Beach's run wasn't bad last week & probably only had a winning hope in this if drawn to lead but can place if stealing runs late. Lochster is first up after a short break which is a concern but he was running great races mid last year in this grade. I wouldn't be surprised if he knocked them off at big odds if the early fireworks occur.
Should be an interesting race
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Race 5
Suggested Bet: No 7 Bettor Star I’d rather him be out in front setting a solid pacer but draws to follow the leader & likely fav who steps up in grade & distance. This fella races best over the 2190m & you can pretty much ignore his Swan Hill form, just doesn’t seem to produce his best on the bigger track. Hopefully there’s enough pressure on throughout that ensure it’s just a slog home which will suit as he ain’t the fastest sprinter. Great EW play
Blackbookers Engaged
Toby O’Gara: Worried about where it’ll be in the run from this gate with Thomas Heights the easy leader.
Morningstar Gold: Can win, could brain them! Up in grade, bad draw and he's likely to be very short odds but who knows how good he is if put into the race earlier & the longer trip might allow Sam Pascoe to do just that.
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Race 6
Hard to see Roll With Ron losing if he holds but he is 1 from 22! Fine Artist the best performed horse in the race but it's a tricky draw for it & likely have to breeze the entire trip. Not many can around Mildura. Orama might be the best value play if getting $3+ a place.
Blackbookers Engaged
Caulonia Courage: If he could somehow cross the 1 he’s a chance but I think the 1 will hold him. Likely to start unders
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Race 7
These races are usually fairly hard to work out & this gets even harder with a couple 1st up around Mildura especially Motu Premier, he could destroy these but Mildura can do strange things to horse at their first look..
Thought Duke Of Dundee was a good run when 3rd last time over the sprint from the death even though it was just a sprint home. Never missed a place around here & from my eye looks the leader without a great deal of early pressure. Not confident but maybe EW No 3 Duke Of Dundee - more the place than win
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Race 8
Sanur Beach – as stated last week I don’t think the 6 week spell suited and there is probably an argument that he’s a better sit sprinter than leader. If the 1 behaves itself and leads, Sanur Beach will get his chance if he gaps open up in what looks a thin race. Happy to have a bet if we're getting close to $5
Blackbookers Engaged
FiftyShades Cresco: I just don’t think the lead will be there with the 1 & 2 having the necessary speed to hold him out & he’s struggled around here when he cant find the pegs
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Race 9
Suggested Bet: WIN No 1 Shelby Grace – she put together 2 good wins in similar company here in late Jan and just hasn’t had any luck the past 2. Draws to be leading or take the trail on the right horse. Best play of the night for me.
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Race 10
Wemen Bella gets the mare concession & hence the good draw for this & Dani Hill stays on. Won well against a similar class 3 starts ago & followed that up with another grinding win at Port Pirie last week. I don’t think they can cross her early & out in front she’ll get every chance again but we'll probably get the price to match.
Blackbookers Engaged
Princess Lil – from the trials. Was driven far too aggressively at Broken Hill last week & was a tired horse late. She could run a race at odds with an easier run here.
No Emotion – up in class and no hope here
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Race 11
No Suggested Bets – Von Art looks the one to beat – trialed well at Globe behind higher class horses and I dare say he'll have a short quote to match
Saturday, April 22nd
Race 1:
Loyola Rocknrolla was a strong win here on Tuesday night, looks your leader again & is going to be in the finish again in a deeper field. Cobargo Grin went huge after being able to find the front Tuesday but is going to have to death seat & if these 2 race each other too much could open this up for something to outsprint them. 1Sayitaintso Joe was a solid 2nd in his heat & you'd expect him to improve 2nd up. If the speed is on he's a huge change to reverse the result from Tuesday. Galactic Girl was just too good for the weaker heat. Small field there & I'm just a little worried she's going to be too far back with the 11 horses engaged & under the odds.
Suggested Bet: WIN Bets Loyola Rocknrolla, Saver on Sayitaintso Joe
Race 2:
Wasnt even sure where to start with this race so Im not.
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 3:
Really liked the way The Falcon Prince kept fighting after death seating Tuesday. This is a heap weaker than that race & really should be winning & will be nearly unbeatable if found the lead. If things go wrong for the fav then Rays Daughter can definitely win. Alpha Crucis was better run than looks on paper Tuesday night & is in the mix if things fall into line
Suggested Bet: WIN The Falcon Price, saver Rays Daughter
Race 4:
Im a big fan of Missed The Truth. Ran some ripping races against some of Victoria's best 2yos last prep & is first up here as a 3yo after a couple of good trials. I think that Victory George will hold the lead early & that may make life hard for Missed The Truth. If that happens then Relentless Me becomes near unbeatable. Best performed horse in the race. Pas Guarantee not hopeless but has the task to beat the favs.
Suggested Bet: Betting in play. If Missed The Truth leads backing it. If not, backing Relentless Me
Race 5
Goodtime Maddie led and just kept rolling Tuesday night & was a strong win. Leads again & is going to be mighty hard to beat. Byalla Boy was massive in the same race & is the best chance of those from the backrow. King Solomon is my kryptonite. I don't think I've ever caught him but hoping tonight is the night. Follows through Goodtime Maddie & theres a slight concern he can't hold leaders back but I think he can, just. If he does, just needs a gap to be right in the finish. Caulonia Courage is the other horse that could push behind to leaders back & is a massive chance if he got there. No luck Tuesday & did hold off King Solomon late although there were probably bigger excuses for the latter. Happy to take on Changeover Girl. Had everything go right Tuesday & won accordingly. Gate 4 maybe a bad draw for it. Happy to risk but obviously can win
Suggested Bet: King Solomon & Caulonia Courage EW
Race 6
Initially I thought Accelere just had everything go right out in front Tuesday night but reading the report, carried a flat tyre the majority of the race so a better win than I thought. Leads again and looks mighty hard to beat. He's going to have Art Of Sheng Li pushing him hard though & I dont think there will be any easy quarters like there were on Tuesday. It is a $25k final and most of these dont get the opportunity to race for that type of coin often. I thought Pocket Thedeal is much better suited to the final than he was the heat. End up in the death in his heat & thats not his go. Needs to sit sprint and if the pace is on he'll be flashing at them late. Thomas Heights I'll underestimate again but he'll follow Pocket Thedeal's every move & is a place chance. Cemetery Bay & Gobsmacked your knockout chances but they'll need everything to go right.
Suggested Bet: 2/3 EW Pocket Thedeal
Race 7:
Im not keen on this race. Not sure how well Cant Top This is going but looks your leader in a slowly run race. Gets every chance but will be a short quote. No thanks. Gilty Hanover was ok last time but isn't quite at her best. She'd need to push forward early & see if se could create a gap to find leaders back to be a chance but unlikely. Cool Rocking Daddy & Caulonia Terror will ease back from their draws, Ozzie Battler will likely be 3 pegs and will need plenty to go right to outsprint them. Worrying for Bernie Winkle that he's actually raced better at Melton than he has Mildura this season. Strange for a horse thats won here 35 times!
Suggested Bet: None
Race 8: MILDURA CUP
No 1: Starvin Marvin - Outclassed here
No 2: Bettor Star - See above
No 3: Mailman - Leads early & they may decide to keep it tonight. Seen stranger things happen! Based on the heats though I think his best chance is taking a sit on the first horse to the death. I reckon he's still 1 year away from beating these type of horses
No 4: Rocknroll Ronnie - Wasnt a bad run on Tuesday but not up to these.
No 5: Caulonia Terror (EMG) Funnily enough, probably better suited in this than the FFA. If he gained a start, definitely a place chance but usually finds this class beyond him
No 6: Khaki Nui - Can fly the gate when asked & Ellen is a great gate driver. If he managed to cross is a sneaky place chance but I cant see that happening
No 7: Im No Outlaw - Would be suited by a crazy speed but there are easier races for him
No 8: Our Millionaire - Tactics early are so crucial here. Mark Pitt will be hoping he can follow through in front of Boots Electric and get to the front 1st. I dont think he can though & he's going to have to be very good to win not leading. Looks unders at $1.80.
No 9: Boots Electric - I reckon you can rule a line through Tuesdays run. Did what he needed to to be ready for tonight even though Phoenix Prince beat him easily in a 55.1 last half off the back of a quicker 1st half than the other heat. Looks the value runner to me considering he's the one likely to be in front 1st.
No 10: Phoenix Prince - Best horse in the race. He's close to back to where he was when winning the Geelong & Kilmore cups 2 or so years ago. Was impressive winning his heat and could be just too good for them
No 11 Bulletproof Boy - such a consistent horse but just doesnt look suited here. If they go crazy he'll be running home late and can fill a placing.
Suggested Bets: I reckon we might be able to get $3+ Phoenix Prince & also back Boots Electric ($5.50 Sportsbet currently)& come away with a profit
Race 9:
Ah Mach comes to Oz with handy wraps but will need to be good as I don't think it'll be leading. Longtan Cassanova has gate speed and doesn't usually hand up & I dont think they will here even though he's never won over the longer distance. I've been really impressed with Deaken Avenue this prep. She never saw daylight and looked to have plenty to give last time in a stronger race. Gets the best draw he's seen this prep & the query maybe on nerearly speed. Just need to hold leaders back to be a big player in this though. Lorne Beach, Terror To Rock and Aces Are Counted all blackbookers recently but they'd need plenty to go right to be winning this.
Suggested Bet: WIN Deaken Avenue
Race 10
Race in 2 for mine. Leigh Miller looks very well suited. Will lead, likely to walk them to suit & they'll need to be good to run him down. 1 from 1 this track as well. Yoursnmine will be straight onto his back & has never raced better. This will only be a sprint home so its advantage Leigh Miller
Suggested Bet: Theres $2+ Yoursnmine the place out there. Best Bet of the night
Race 11
Lightning Dan leads and should be winning at a very short quote. Might be some nuisance speed early with My Superannuation and maybe a surprise attack from out wide but youd expect him to lead and win. Toby O'Gara I got wrong on Tuesday night. Never a chance coming 3 wide without cover. Not his go. Back to the pegs here & just needs to hold leaders back to be a huge chance to hold. I reckon it's our chance to make the money back we lost on him Tuesday
Suggested Bet: Place bet Toby O'Gara (NTD)
Loyola Rocknrolla was a strong win here on Tuesday night, looks your leader again & is going to be in the finish again in a deeper field. Cobargo Grin went huge after being able to find the front Tuesday but is going to have to death seat & if these 2 race each other too much could open this up for something to outsprint them. 1Sayitaintso Joe was a solid 2nd in his heat & you'd expect him to improve 2nd up. If the speed is on he's a huge change to reverse the result from Tuesday. Galactic Girl was just too good for the weaker heat. Small field there & I'm just a little worried she's going to be too far back with the 11 horses engaged & under the odds.
Suggested Bet: WIN Bets Loyola Rocknrolla, Saver on Sayitaintso Joe
Race 2:
Wasnt even sure where to start with this race so Im not.
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 3:
Really liked the way The Falcon Prince kept fighting after death seating Tuesday. This is a heap weaker than that race & really should be winning & will be nearly unbeatable if found the lead. If things go wrong for the fav then Rays Daughter can definitely win. Alpha Crucis was better run than looks on paper Tuesday night & is in the mix if things fall into line
Suggested Bet: WIN The Falcon Price, saver Rays Daughter
Race 4:
Im a big fan of Missed The Truth. Ran some ripping races against some of Victoria's best 2yos last prep & is first up here as a 3yo after a couple of good trials. I think that Victory George will hold the lead early & that may make life hard for Missed The Truth. If that happens then Relentless Me becomes near unbeatable. Best performed horse in the race. Pas Guarantee not hopeless but has the task to beat the favs.
Suggested Bet: Betting in play. If Missed The Truth leads backing it. If not, backing Relentless Me
Race 5
Goodtime Maddie led and just kept rolling Tuesday night & was a strong win. Leads again & is going to be mighty hard to beat. Byalla Boy was massive in the same race & is the best chance of those from the backrow. King Solomon is my kryptonite. I don't think I've ever caught him but hoping tonight is the night. Follows through Goodtime Maddie & theres a slight concern he can't hold leaders back but I think he can, just. If he does, just needs a gap to be right in the finish. Caulonia Courage is the other horse that could push behind to leaders back & is a massive chance if he got there. No luck Tuesday & did hold off King Solomon late although there were probably bigger excuses for the latter. Happy to take on Changeover Girl. Had everything go right Tuesday & won accordingly. Gate 4 maybe a bad draw for it. Happy to risk but obviously can win
Suggested Bet: King Solomon & Caulonia Courage EW
Race 6
Initially I thought Accelere just had everything go right out in front Tuesday night but reading the report, carried a flat tyre the majority of the race so a better win than I thought. Leads again and looks mighty hard to beat. He's going to have Art Of Sheng Li pushing him hard though & I dont think there will be any easy quarters like there were on Tuesday. It is a $25k final and most of these dont get the opportunity to race for that type of coin often. I thought Pocket Thedeal is much better suited to the final than he was the heat. End up in the death in his heat & thats not his go. Needs to sit sprint and if the pace is on he'll be flashing at them late. Thomas Heights I'll underestimate again but he'll follow Pocket Thedeal's every move & is a place chance. Cemetery Bay & Gobsmacked your knockout chances but they'll need everything to go right.
Suggested Bet: 2/3 EW Pocket Thedeal
Race 7:
Im not keen on this race. Not sure how well Cant Top This is going but looks your leader in a slowly run race. Gets every chance but will be a short quote. No thanks. Gilty Hanover was ok last time but isn't quite at her best. She'd need to push forward early & see if se could create a gap to find leaders back to be a chance but unlikely. Cool Rocking Daddy & Caulonia Terror will ease back from their draws, Ozzie Battler will likely be 3 pegs and will need plenty to go right to outsprint them. Worrying for Bernie Winkle that he's actually raced better at Melton than he has Mildura this season. Strange for a horse thats won here 35 times!
Suggested Bet: None
Race 8: MILDURA CUP
No 1: Starvin Marvin - Outclassed here
No 2: Bettor Star - See above
No 3: Mailman - Leads early & they may decide to keep it tonight. Seen stranger things happen! Based on the heats though I think his best chance is taking a sit on the first horse to the death. I reckon he's still 1 year away from beating these type of horses
No 4: Rocknroll Ronnie - Wasnt a bad run on Tuesday but not up to these.
No 5: Caulonia Terror (EMG) Funnily enough, probably better suited in this than the FFA. If he gained a start, definitely a place chance but usually finds this class beyond him
No 6: Khaki Nui - Can fly the gate when asked & Ellen is a great gate driver. If he managed to cross is a sneaky place chance but I cant see that happening
No 7: Im No Outlaw - Would be suited by a crazy speed but there are easier races for him
No 8: Our Millionaire - Tactics early are so crucial here. Mark Pitt will be hoping he can follow through in front of Boots Electric and get to the front 1st. I dont think he can though & he's going to have to be very good to win not leading. Looks unders at $1.80.
No 9: Boots Electric - I reckon you can rule a line through Tuesdays run. Did what he needed to to be ready for tonight even though Phoenix Prince beat him easily in a 55.1 last half off the back of a quicker 1st half than the other heat. Looks the value runner to me considering he's the one likely to be in front 1st.
No 10: Phoenix Prince - Best horse in the race. He's close to back to where he was when winning the Geelong & Kilmore cups 2 or so years ago. Was impressive winning his heat and could be just too good for them
No 11 Bulletproof Boy - such a consistent horse but just doesnt look suited here. If they go crazy he'll be running home late and can fill a placing.
Suggested Bets: I reckon we might be able to get $3+ Phoenix Prince & also back Boots Electric ($5.50 Sportsbet currently)& come away with a profit
Race 9:
Ah Mach comes to Oz with handy wraps but will need to be good as I don't think it'll be leading. Longtan Cassanova has gate speed and doesn't usually hand up & I dont think they will here even though he's never won over the longer distance. I've been really impressed with Deaken Avenue this prep. She never saw daylight and looked to have plenty to give last time in a stronger race. Gets the best draw he's seen this prep & the query maybe on nerearly speed. Just need to hold leaders back to be a big player in this though. Lorne Beach, Terror To Rock and Aces Are Counted all blackbookers recently but they'd need plenty to go right to be winning this.
Suggested Bet: WIN Deaken Avenue
Race 10
Race in 2 for mine. Leigh Miller looks very well suited. Will lead, likely to walk them to suit & they'll need to be good to run him down. 1 from 1 this track as well. Yoursnmine will be straight onto his back & has never raced better. This will only be a sprint home so its advantage Leigh Miller
Suggested Bet: Theres $2+ Yoursnmine the place out there. Best Bet of the night
Race 11
Lightning Dan leads and should be winning at a very short quote. Might be some nuisance speed early with My Superannuation and maybe a surprise attack from out wide but youd expect him to lead and win. Toby O'Gara I got wrong on Tuesday night. Never a chance coming 3 wide without cover. Not his go. Back to the pegs here & just needs to hold leaders back to be a huge chance to hold. I reckon it's our chance to make the money back we lost on him Tuesday
Suggested Bet: Place bet Toby O'Gara (NTD)
Friday, April 21st
Race 1:
Lookout looks your leader and did enough at Shepparton first up to suggest he goes very close here. Lady Monica's run here 3 starts ago from the same draw suggests she can place without surprising. Dont Waste Time the big question mark. Something must've been amiss last time but her first up run around Birchip was good enough to place in a race like this.
Suggested Bet: Place No 1 Lady Monica
Race 2:
Tell A Tall Story looks extremely well suited in this. Didnt have a lot of room at Hamilton late last start in a much stronger race. Has Mini Major covered for early speed but the risk maybe Princess Lil steaming across for her wide draw. However that horse was extremely disappointing after leading last time and is perhaps better suited with a sit so the retake could be there. Doesn't have to lead to win Tell a Tall Story though.
Suggested Bet: WIN No 2 Tell A Tall Story @ $2+
Race 3:
Shes a 2yo filly taking on the 3yo's The Huntress but she clearly looks the one to beat after an impressive 2nd to what looks to be a smart juvenile in Pretty In Pink at Geelong. She raced a little rough early there so might take some nursing around the first Mildura bend at high speed but definitely the one to beat. Chedalayo has been racing against much better fields but might've been a touch disappointing last time. If The Huntress does things wrong she gets her chance. Would need to be a very messy race for anything else to win.
Suggested Bet: None
Race 4:
The Boost has recorded 2 of his 3 wins when leading at this track at any distance. Won a 54 rater in good time here in November. Looks extremely well suited in this with his main dangers drawn his outside. Delightful Nicky struggles to win and Overpowering with Greg Sugars in the cart could be the the main danger but is going to have to be good to win from the draw. If they go too quick in front, Tact Tory could run a cheeky race from the trailing draw & Stonebridge Star has never raced better
Suggested Bet: Win No 1 The Boost @ $2+
Race 5
Trotters - No Bet
Race 6
Might be a good race to take the overs on Luke Humphries saying "True Mildura Style" in this race as there is a stack of speed off the front row on paper. 2,3,4,5 are all go forward horses and I'd say Little Suzie will force her way across as much as she can to ensure Im Princess Bella doesn't receive an easy lead. On that scenario I thought Itswrongtobeexcited was the value runner. Hasn't had much go his way the past 2 & is right in this considering he's likely to be getting a sit on pace. Its Princess Bella the right favourite though
Suggested Bet: 2/3 EW Itswrongtobexcited
Race 7:
Hard race to line up but you'd think the local class horses will struggle to measure up to the visitors here in Illawong Kellie & Royal Cadence who both arguably bring in better form. illawong Kellie has had plenty of excuses lately & does look very well suited against these. Best of the locals is Ozzie Daybreak. Had no luck last time from a bad draw & previous runs he's attacked for the lead but failed. Gets his chance to lead tonight if Crackerjacks Judge hands up like I expect. His last win was leading and winning at this track and distance against a better field. He's couldn't be fitter after 6 runs back & gets his chance. Have to mention Chloe Ann also who drops in grade after a nice run last time. Just not sure where she gets to in the run not having the same early speed of those to her inside but if she gets any luck, shes in the mix.
Suggested Bet: 2/3 EW Ozzie Daybreak
Race 8:
No bet - Trotters
Race 9:
Rocks Arent Pets might be able to hold these out early on a front line that looks to have little early speed & give him his chance but there is a big query on his recent form & how well he's going. Come On Elvis was ok here on Tuesday night even though beaten out of sight. Place chance again. Mister Artikulate & Wyattflynn bring in the strongest from outside Mildura and are major players with the right runs. Frankntank is the one I'm interested in though. Going to have to find a spot in the back half of the field but I think the 2190m will allow him to work into the race this week. He's been driven for luck over the shorter distances in recent times & hasn't received any. With a bit more aggression here he's right in this & looks the value play
Suggested Bet: 1/4 EW Frankntank (Best Roughy)
Race 10
This is as weak as it gets & Harry McKinnis either leads or sits leaders back & finally gets his chance. (Note 1 is EOD) If Elizabethan Era is able to cross then his job does become a little harder. Might be a case of who leads wins but thats probably a bit disrespectful to Abbie Lincoln but she'll need plenty to go right if they settle quickly & walk the first half. Happy to risk Whereyagoinbabe who needs to be in front to perform its best & I cant see that happening here.
Suggested Bet: WIN Harry McKinnis (Best Value Bet)
Race 11
Mista Pumblechook gets another chance to return to the winners list but he isn't the most trustworthy animal. Did scrap home in a 42 rater but that was over the longer journey here in November & looks better suited over the 1790m. Midrace pressure might come from Another Sparky but I cant see him death seating & winning. Lilbitofhenrytee interests. Been racing extremely well against better horses. Problem for him is it'll be 3 pegs & looking for runs. What happens often in these low grade races is those horses working 1 or 2 off the fence can tire & gaps quite often appear for those on the pegs. If Lilbitofhentry sees a gap early enough he can outsprint them. Takidah was a better run last time in a stronger race & is a major player with the right run & my speed map has her sitting 1x1.
Suggested Bet: Something on Lilbitofhenrytee & Mista Pumblechook
Lookout looks your leader and did enough at Shepparton first up to suggest he goes very close here. Lady Monica's run here 3 starts ago from the same draw suggests she can place without surprising. Dont Waste Time the big question mark. Something must've been amiss last time but her first up run around Birchip was good enough to place in a race like this.
Suggested Bet: Place No 1 Lady Monica
Race 2:
Tell A Tall Story looks extremely well suited in this. Didnt have a lot of room at Hamilton late last start in a much stronger race. Has Mini Major covered for early speed but the risk maybe Princess Lil steaming across for her wide draw. However that horse was extremely disappointing after leading last time and is perhaps better suited with a sit so the retake could be there. Doesn't have to lead to win Tell a Tall Story though.
Suggested Bet: WIN No 2 Tell A Tall Story @ $2+
Race 3:
Shes a 2yo filly taking on the 3yo's The Huntress but she clearly looks the one to beat after an impressive 2nd to what looks to be a smart juvenile in Pretty In Pink at Geelong. She raced a little rough early there so might take some nursing around the first Mildura bend at high speed but definitely the one to beat. Chedalayo has been racing against much better fields but might've been a touch disappointing last time. If The Huntress does things wrong she gets her chance. Would need to be a very messy race for anything else to win.
Suggested Bet: None
Race 4:
The Boost has recorded 2 of his 3 wins when leading at this track at any distance. Won a 54 rater in good time here in November. Looks extremely well suited in this with his main dangers drawn his outside. Delightful Nicky struggles to win and Overpowering with Greg Sugars in the cart could be the the main danger but is going to have to be good to win from the draw. If they go too quick in front, Tact Tory could run a cheeky race from the trailing draw & Stonebridge Star has never raced better
Suggested Bet: Win No 1 The Boost @ $2+
Race 5
Trotters - No Bet
Race 6
Might be a good race to take the overs on Luke Humphries saying "True Mildura Style" in this race as there is a stack of speed off the front row on paper. 2,3,4,5 are all go forward horses and I'd say Little Suzie will force her way across as much as she can to ensure Im Princess Bella doesn't receive an easy lead. On that scenario I thought Itswrongtobeexcited was the value runner. Hasn't had much go his way the past 2 & is right in this considering he's likely to be getting a sit on pace. Its Princess Bella the right favourite though
Suggested Bet: 2/3 EW Itswrongtobexcited
Race 7:
Hard race to line up but you'd think the local class horses will struggle to measure up to the visitors here in Illawong Kellie & Royal Cadence who both arguably bring in better form. illawong Kellie has had plenty of excuses lately & does look very well suited against these. Best of the locals is Ozzie Daybreak. Had no luck last time from a bad draw & previous runs he's attacked for the lead but failed. Gets his chance to lead tonight if Crackerjacks Judge hands up like I expect. His last win was leading and winning at this track and distance against a better field. He's couldn't be fitter after 6 runs back & gets his chance. Have to mention Chloe Ann also who drops in grade after a nice run last time. Just not sure where she gets to in the run not having the same early speed of those to her inside but if she gets any luck, shes in the mix.
Suggested Bet: 2/3 EW Ozzie Daybreak
Race 8:
No bet - Trotters
Race 9:
Rocks Arent Pets might be able to hold these out early on a front line that looks to have little early speed & give him his chance but there is a big query on his recent form & how well he's going. Come On Elvis was ok here on Tuesday night even though beaten out of sight. Place chance again. Mister Artikulate & Wyattflynn bring in the strongest from outside Mildura and are major players with the right runs. Frankntank is the one I'm interested in though. Going to have to find a spot in the back half of the field but I think the 2190m will allow him to work into the race this week. He's been driven for luck over the shorter distances in recent times & hasn't received any. With a bit more aggression here he's right in this & looks the value play
Suggested Bet: 1/4 EW Frankntank (Best Roughy)
Race 10
This is as weak as it gets & Harry McKinnis either leads or sits leaders back & finally gets his chance. (Note 1 is EOD) If Elizabethan Era is able to cross then his job does become a little harder. Might be a case of who leads wins but thats probably a bit disrespectful to Abbie Lincoln but she'll need plenty to go right if they settle quickly & walk the first half. Happy to risk Whereyagoinbabe who needs to be in front to perform its best & I cant see that happening here.
Suggested Bet: WIN Harry McKinnis (Best Value Bet)
Race 11
Mista Pumblechook gets another chance to return to the winners list but he isn't the most trustworthy animal. Did scrap home in a 42 rater but that was over the longer journey here in November & looks better suited over the 1790m. Midrace pressure might come from Another Sparky but I cant see him death seating & winning. Lilbitofhenrytee interests. Been racing extremely well against better horses. Problem for him is it'll be 3 pegs & looking for runs. What happens often in these low grade races is those horses working 1 or 2 off the fence can tire & gaps quite often appear for those on the pegs. If Lilbitofhentry sees a gap early enough he can outsprint them. Takidah was a better run last time in a stronger race & is a major player with the right run & my speed map has her sitting 1x1.
Suggested Bet: Something on Lilbitofhenrytee & Mista Pumblechook
Meeting Summary Tuesday, April 19th
Race 1:
A race with plenty of queries and mixed form lines. Daggy Lamb may destroy these. Has been impressive albeit it from gate 1 in lesser class it's first 2. Gotta watch the old Tact Tate owners! Changeover Girl & Delwyns Son probably the other class runners of the race but again, first time here.
Happy to stick with value & horses I know that race well here. Caulonia Courage was massive in defeat last time after locking wheels at the bell. Lost about 15 metres & plenty of momentum. Finished the best of the run on horses only beaten 4 metres. Great win prior in easier. Gets the gun draw tonight. The other is Keayang Balboa. If he can cross it'll give a great run for your money. Thought he stuck on really well at this track & distance last time in a strong race. He holds his form well and I thought it was a better than 50% chance that he could cross.
Suggested Bets: 1x4 EW No 1 Caulonia Courage & No 5 Keayang Balboa
Race 2:
Blackbooker Toby O'Gara looks a play at double figure odds. Thought Goodtime Maddie & Midnight Calm would race hard early & that'll be followed up with either Marsden Heights or Heaven Attracts going to the death to keep them rolling. Sets up really well for Toby especially if he can get the right tag into the race. Hopefully no excuses tonight!
Suggested Bet: 2x3EW No 8 Toby O'Gara
Race 3
Happy to take on Sayitaintso Joe first up at the track from the draw. No doubt the best horse in the race but even money from a back row draw over the short course, no thanks! Loyola Rocknrolla looks the leader & looks the best play especially if those inside him dont do anything silly. Lorne Beach gets a horror draw but outside the favs, this race is pretty thin so it's worthwhile throwing a few dollars on. Wait to late in the piece because after I mentioned it on SEN Track this morning it's been backed. Reckon we'll get much better closer to race time.
Suggested Bets: Lay Sayitaintso Joe, WIN bet No 4 Loyola Golf & small 1x4ew No 10 Lorne Beach
Race 4:
Speedie Eadie looks the right fav but has seemed to find one better lately. Having said that no doubt in better races & this is pretty thin race. A bit of nuisance speed from Elizabethan Era & Fiftyshades Cresco and I expect if either of those decide to hold they'll be struggling late. I thought Carbargo Grin isn't suited over the 1790m but a win wouldn't surprise. Winnedou has been trialing well, Sanur Beach looks well suited especially if it follows through & decides to dictate from the death. Hoppers Dream ODM after stuffing up the start last week but can win this with the right run. Come On Elvis gets Ellen Tormey back on and she drives the horse well.
Suggested Bet: Something EW for fun on Come On Elvis & Sanur Beach at double figures.
Race 5:
I really struggled with this race. Blackbooker Pocket Thedeal I thought was a play at the early odds of $9 but no thanks at half that quote. Going to land 3 pegs, maybe worse so happy to watch unless he's back out to an ew price. Accelere trialed well at Bendigo & looks to have the speed to lead but Stag Party can fly the gate but Kerryn maybe happy to sit in the death. Gobsmacked not hopeless at odds if they go nuts.
Suggested Bet: None
Race 6
The Cup heats have unfortunately had low numbers & the heats small fields. Likely to be very slowly run races for this class of animal so to advantage pegs runners.
My map has Mailman in front early with Starvin Marvin leaders back & I thought the only horse Mailman would hand up to would be the fav Our Millionaire. The risk is Khaki Nui who can come out of the gate when asked but not quick enough to cross Mailman for mine.
Suggested Bet: Not keen to get involved but if you want something for interest maybe a straight trifecta. 7/2/1
Race 7
Thought Art Of Sheng Li looked suited. Ive mapped him leading and holding One Too Many & that could mean the end of the race for the latter who's been mixing his form terribly. Art Of Sheng Li has won at the track impressively previously. Platinum Stride is flying and will be advantaged if they go too quick.
Suggested Bets: WIN bets - More on Art Of Sheng Li, less on Platinum Stride
Race 8
Game set match if Boots Electric leads as expected. Phoenix Prince the class horse of the race and I'd be surprised if he didn't run 2nd or at least 3rd. Bullet Proof Boy the other.
Suggested Bet: WIN bet Boots Electric if you like a shorty but I'll stay out of that. Trifecta for interest 4/5/6
Race 9
Loyola Golf looks your leader and hard to beat. Led from the same draw in a 50 rater here & they never got near him. Just held on at Hamilton 2 starts back but the 2nd horse there has won 3 straight since. Still Truckin could destroy these. Who knows how good he is. We didnt find out 1st up after it showed no pace early & never got a run. Based on its NZ form it should be winning against this class but I'd rather see him over the 2190m. $1.45 to find out how good he is? No thanks. Robert Crocka interests. Has some of the best early speed in the Sunraysia & I think he'll cross for fun & take a sit tonight. He just cant maintain 30s quarters and run out a race. They tried that last week & he had nothing left & was probably the first horse beaten. (His time was still ok for a race like this) Should get an easier run tonight & whilst I think he'll struggle to win, he's a huge chance to fill a placing over his favourite distance.
Suggested Bets: Small win bet Loyola Golf at $5+. Bigger place bet Robert Crocka
Race 10:
I thought Beaudacious was a nice run last time out but just not sure where he lands in running with Whereyagoinbabe trying to hold it out. Galactic Girl is a nice mare who probably hasn't gone on to be as good a horse as I thought it would be early on but this looks a nice race for her. Will she handle Mildura & she may have to death seat if they walk. Too short to find out for me. Sir Jujon will get a lovely run from the draw & looks the value play.
Suggested Bet: Small play EW Sir Jujon (beware NTD)
Race 11
I'd be amazed if Blood Moon couldn't beat these. I expect her to lead and beat them easily. Didmeselfamischief led, walked & couldn't hold them off at Globe Derby. Better with a sit & I expect they'll take that sit on Blood Moon if they can cross the 1. Headover Heals likely to be running on well late from the draw and Ronzel Micky improves each time she steps out & will challenge hard for 2nd.
Suggested Bet: Back Blood Moon WIN but if you dont like odds on pops maybe a wide tri/first four 6/ 3-5 / 3-5-7 / 1-3-5-7. Or the riskier 6 / 5 / 3-7 / 1-3-7
A race with plenty of queries and mixed form lines. Daggy Lamb may destroy these. Has been impressive albeit it from gate 1 in lesser class it's first 2. Gotta watch the old Tact Tate owners! Changeover Girl & Delwyns Son probably the other class runners of the race but again, first time here.
Happy to stick with value & horses I know that race well here. Caulonia Courage was massive in defeat last time after locking wheels at the bell. Lost about 15 metres & plenty of momentum. Finished the best of the run on horses only beaten 4 metres. Great win prior in easier. Gets the gun draw tonight. The other is Keayang Balboa. If he can cross it'll give a great run for your money. Thought he stuck on really well at this track & distance last time in a strong race. He holds his form well and I thought it was a better than 50% chance that he could cross.
Suggested Bets: 1x4 EW No 1 Caulonia Courage & No 5 Keayang Balboa
Race 2:
Blackbooker Toby O'Gara looks a play at double figure odds. Thought Goodtime Maddie & Midnight Calm would race hard early & that'll be followed up with either Marsden Heights or Heaven Attracts going to the death to keep them rolling. Sets up really well for Toby especially if he can get the right tag into the race. Hopefully no excuses tonight!
Suggested Bet: 2x3EW No 8 Toby O'Gara
Race 3
Happy to take on Sayitaintso Joe first up at the track from the draw. No doubt the best horse in the race but even money from a back row draw over the short course, no thanks! Loyola Rocknrolla looks the leader & looks the best play especially if those inside him dont do anything silly. Lorne Beach gets a horror draw but outside the favs, this race is pretty thin so it's worthwhile throwing a few dollars on. Wait to late in the piece because after I mentioned it on SEN Track this morning it's been backed. Reckon we'll get much better closer to race time.
Suggested Bets: Lay Sayitaintso Joe, WIN bet No 4 Loyola Golf & small 1x4ew No 10 Lorne Beach
Race 4:
Speedie Eadie looks the right fav but has seemed to find one better lately. Having said that no doubt in better races & this is pretty thin race. A bit of nuisance speed from Elizabethan Era & Fiftyshades Cresco and I expect if either of those decide to hold they'll be struggling late. I thought Carbargo Grin isn't suited over the 1790m but a win wouldn't surprise. Winnedou has been trialing well, Sanur Beach looks well suited especially if it follows through & decides to dictate from the death. Hoppers Dream ODM after stuffing up the start last week but can win this with the right run. Come On Elvis gets Ellen Tormey back on and she drives the horse well.
Suggested Bet: Something EW for fun on Come On Elvis & Sanur Beach at double figures.
Race 5:
I really struggled with this race. Blackbooker Pocket Thedeal I thought was a play at the early odds of $9 but no thanks at half that quote. Going to land 3 pegs, maybe worse so happy to watch unless he's back out to an ew price. Accelere trialed well at Bendigo & looks to have the speed to lead but Stag Party can fly the gate but Kerryn maybe happy to sit in the death. Gobsmacked not hopeless at odds if they go nuts.
Suggested Bet: None
Race 6
The Cup heats have unfortunately had low numbers & the heats small fields. Likely to be very slowly run races for this class of animal so to advantage pegs runners.
My map has Mailman in front early with Starvin Marvin leaders back & I thought the only horse Mailman would hand up to would be the fav Our Millionaire. The risk is Khaki Nui who can come out of the gate when asked but not quick enough to cross Mailman for mine.
Suggested Bet: Not keen to get involved but if you want something for interest maybe a straight trifecta. 7/2/1
Race 7
Thought Art Of Sheng Li looked suited. Ive mapped him leading and holding One Too Many & that could mean the end of the race for the latter who's been mixing his form terribly. Art Of Sheng Li has won at the track impressively previously. Platinum Stride is flying and will be advantaged if they go too quick.
Suggested Bets: WIN bets - More on Art Of Sheng Li, less on Platinum Stride
Race 8
Game set match if Boots Electric leads as expected. Phoenix Prince the class horse of the race and I'd be surprised if he didn't run 2nd or at least 3rd. Bullet Proof Boy the other.
Suggested Bet: WIN bet Boots Electric if you like a shorty but I'll stay out of that. Trifecta for interest 4/5/6
Race 9
Loyola Golf looks your leader and hard to beat. Led from the same draw in a 50 rater here & they never got near him. Just held on at Hamilton 2 starts back but the 2nd horse there has won 3 straight since. Still Truckin could destroy these. Who knows how good he is. We didnt find out 1st up after it showed no pace early & never got a run. Based on its NZ form it should be winning against this class but I'd rather see him over the 2190m. $1.45 to find out how good he is? No thanks. Robert Crocka interests. Has some of the best early speed in the Sunraysia & I think he'll cross for fun & take a sit tonight. He just cant maintain 30s quarters and run out a race. They tried that last week & he had nothing left & was probably the first horse beaten. (His time was still ok for a race like this) Should get an easier run tonight & whilst I think he'll struggle to win, he's a huge chance to fill a placing over his favourite distance.
Suggested Bets: Small win bet Loyola Golf at $5+. Bigger place bet Robert Crocka
Race 10:
I thought Beaudacious was a nice run last time out but just not sure where he lands in running with Whereyagoinbabe trying to hold it out. Galactic Girl is a nice mare who probably hasn't gone on to be as good a horse as I thought it would be early on but this looks a nice race for her. Will she handle Mildura & she may have to death seat if they walk. Too short to find out for me. Sir Jujon will get a lovely run from the draw & looks the value play.
Suggested Bet: Small play EW Sir Jujon (beware NTD)
Race 11
I'd be amazed if Blood Moon couldn't beat these. I expect her to lead and beat them easily. Didmeselfamischief led, walked & couldn't hold them off at Globe Derby. Better with a sit & I expect they'll take that sit on Blood Moon if they can cross the 1. Headover Heals likely to be running on well late from the draw and Ronzel Micky improves each time she steps out & will challenge hard for 2nd.
Suggested Bet: Back Blood Moon WIN but if you dont like odds on pops maybe a wide tri/first four 6/ 3-5 / 3-5-7 / 1-3-5-7. Or the riskier 6 / 5 / 3-7 / 1-3-7
Wednesday, April 13th
BEST VALUE BET
Race 9 No 1 Tactfilly Magic (WIN)
NEXT BEST
Race 3 No 2 Miss Twinkle (WIN)
BEST ROUGHY
Race 10 No 1 Outta Control (2x3EW)
Race 9 No 1 Tactfilly Magic (WIN)
NEXT BEST
Race 3 No 2 Miss Twinkle (WIN)
BEST ROUGHY
Race 10 No 1 Outta Control (2x3EW)
Meeting Summary
Race 1: NR Rating up to 50
Tricky race to start with a few first up from across the border in new stables & others stepping up in grade - plenty of mixed formlines. Rocking Wroxton was a solid win last week after finally managing to find the lead. Might end up in front again & will be thereabouts in a stronger race. Lilbitahenrytee struggles to win but it'll be the problem for Rocking Wroxton early because I reckon it can cross & maybe a question mark tonight whether it hands up or not. Horrie Otara first up for Alby Ashwood from NSW without a trial & it's form in NSW was good enough to win this & Alby can improve them. Beaudacious the other first up in Vic from WA for Frank Mercieca who's team is low flying. Anther going around without a trial & the 2nd row maybe a challenge considering it's best races have been on speed to date. Might be too good anyway? Luvuself I expect to improve from the draw over the sprint distance, as I do Jordie Dee from a soft trip who had excuses last time.
Suggested Bet: None
Race 2: Up to 50 NR
Hard not to be impressed by Hoppers Dream in probably a stronger race last week. She was the one making the 3wide move without cover after an extremely slow first half. Did well to only finish 6.7m from the winner in 4th but some finishing behind her had hard luck stories. Rojenbye franked the Broken Hill form winning last week also. Expecting her to lead these quite comfortably & get her chance but at the same time I have a small query on that race last week. Princess Lil is a danger if Michelle Phillips can put enough pressure on early to find a gap and slot in behind the leader (or even cross). She'll struggle though if she cant find the pegs. The old fella James Charles only needs luck & probably enough speed early to hold leaders back to be a major player also. Risking Have A Crack from the draw.
Suggested Bet: Win No 1 Hoppers Dream
Race 3: NR up to 50 (NEXT BEST)
Miss Twinkle looks the big improver from the draw. She was a strong 2nd to Sanur Beach 2 starts back after handing up & then was good enough after she couldn't lead over the sprint last week. I think she'll cross tonight & be very hard to beat. Should be favourite for mine. Big watch on Courtney Katarina. Hard to have if you watch her run at Ouyen but has followed that up with a nice trial here over the weekend. Could be the improver. Whereyagoinbabe has to lead to be a chance & I doubt that'll be happening here. Same can be said for Fiftyshades Cresco & Lovin Everyday but Alby can light one up from out wide on occasion and the stable is firing. Woody Nightshade struggles to win even more so over the 2190m but could be the knockout if they over do it early.
Suggested Bet: Win No 2 Miss Twinkle
Race 4: Maiden
Tough race! Bowled Gary's run last week out in front was probably good enough to give this a shake, Hanover Jack beat it home & with luck goes very close, Regal Star Im happy to leave out, Havelock was very disappointing from the death last week but as Ive mentioned before, not many can win from the death here, especially maidens. Might have to death seat again though. Shakin Sands was a much better run at Charlton & should get a nice run from the trailing draw - does look unders currently though.
Suggested Bet: Something small on Bowled Gary 1x4 EW - low confidence race
Race 5 NR 51-54
Plenty of chances in this. Robert Crocka gets the distance & draw it loves but this is as strong as it wants it. If they decide to lead, which is likely in what looks to be a slow front line, that maybe his undoing. Glam Rock maybe the one that can spear across and could cause an upset if the lead was there. Frankntank a blackbooker from last week but the draw might be a big problem. Doesnt have great early speed and if pushed can race roughly. Likely to be death seating if it can maintain early or restrained to last. Might have the job ahead from either of those 2 scenarios. Sanur Beach has the inside back row draw & even though down in class will need a ripper drive to salute. Deakin Avenue is flying. Up in grade after an impressive maiden win last time. Wouldn't be surprised if he's winning again. Another blackbooker Isitwrongtobeexcited is the best horse in the race but Im not guiding anyone into a $2.30 fav from outside the back row. Chloe Ann not hopeless especially if they decide to come off the fence early on Sanur Beach. That should get her to leaders back or 3 pegs & a win wouldn't surprise if the runs came late. Yoursnmine & Be A Good Scout chances also!
Suggested Bet: Small play 1x4 Chloe Ann for interest
Race 6 NR 50 to 54
Expecting them to settle fairly quickly after an early burn. Star Shine your likely leader & up in class after having every chance last week Im happy to leave but it'll be in the firing line turning the last corner. I thought Hard Rock Shannon could improve if Alby pushes to the death early & there maybe a 1x1 sit for him mid race. Trebek draws to get a cheap run behind Star Shine, exactly the same run he had when winning here 3 starts ago. Write About Angus was a massive run here 2 starts ago when caught 3 without cover the last lap, only to be nabbed late by Cemetery Bay. Thats very good form for this! Broke at Shep last time so you can forgive that. Might just be too good here even from the draw. Southern Burgundy was a nice win last week but this is harder. Looks unders at $5 for me. Headbanger has been racing well the past few and even though he'll have to work again at some point looks the overs in the race.
Suggested Bet: I think Write About Angus wins but happy to leave it at the price from the draw. Something for interest 1x4 Headbanger at around $20
Race 7 NR54-60
Looks Dont Write Me Off's race to lose even though this is a fair jump up in class. Led & won at this track and distance in March. Its been a strong form race with 3 subsequent winners coming from it. I cant see there being too much pressure mid race unless Midnight Calm goes forward again but doubtful after it dropped out badly from the death last week. They might run the first half ridiculously slow if thats the case & makes the 1 even harder to beat. Strong chances to non winners King Soloman & Toby Ogara if the pace is there & I can see Neds Beach run a cheeky race as it's likely to find leaders back from gate 2.
Suggested Bet: WIN No 1 Dont Write Me Off - I think there will be better odds closer to race time than the $1.9 available currently
Race 8 NR65-80
Hard to see them stopping Thomas Heights. Looks your leader and extremely hard to beat. Cemetery Bay steps up massively in grade after just getting there last week off a soft run - can place. Pocket The Deal is low flying but needs a cold sit to win, I cant see that happening here. Gilty Hanover is the class runner of the race but just not sure where she's at. Rocknroll Ronnie has been racing really well but has the task from the draw. Starvin Marvin could run a cheeky race if he found a cheap pegs run.
Suggested Bet: No bet race although I find it hard not to! Exotics for fun. 4 / 5-6-7 / 1 / Field. Trifecta/F4
Race 9 NR up to 50 (BEST VALUE BET)
Back on Tactfilly Magic even though she's 0 from 18 over the distance. With that said, she's never led over the 2190m and here's her chance to remedy that record. She was a solid 2nd 2 starts back from a backrow draw & then never a hope but finished her race off well again from a poor draw last week. Looks the early leader & there doesnt look to be any midrace pressure outside of Chalkncheddar who's stats are also average over the longer trip. I think he's the main danger along with Bezabomber, another that doesn't win out of turn. Best value of the night for me.
Suggested Bet: WIN No 1 Tactfilly Magic
Race 10 NR up to 47 (Best Roughy)
Vierra looks the one to beat especially if Sam Pascoe can keep him settled and either lead or control the race from the death. It really is a thin race depth wise & the only others I could really entertain would be Squatter Shannon but it'll have to work from the draw or try & outsprint them late in what looks to be a slowly run race on paper. Outta Control has come up big odds. He arguably beats Vierra with a clear run here in early Feb when 2nd & its $2.5 vs $26 tonight! Has had excuses since. Just needs to hold out Pinkie Promise early to be right in the mix. Best roughy of the night
Suggested Bet: 2x3 EW Outta Control
Race 11 NR up to 40
Tricky race to work out at first look. If Another Sparky finds the top I think it's game over & Alby may just work until he does. Michelle Phillips on Mods will be trying her best for that not to happen & even Harry McKinnis may push up although Ryan Sanderson is likely to restrain if it's too hot early. Thats why I think our blackbooker from last week The Mach Army is under the odds at $6.50. Likely to be 3 pegs, maybe 4 pegs. I thought we'd be getting double figures. Maybe he is just going a heap better in the new stable? Id want better odds to find out though. Mista Pumblechook struggles to win like most of these but is racing well and a win wouldn't surprise.
Suggested Bet: Something on The Mach Army if blows out to double figures
Race 12 NR 48-54
Not keen on this race & hopefully I dont need a get out! Bettorzbeach has been racing against better class of horses. First up around here can sort them out pretty quickly especially over 1790m. No thanks at odds on for me. This Is Bill will make the fav work for it. Looks your leader and will keep running them along. Thats going to suit horses like Magic In Her Moves (should like the small field too), Rays Daughter who I could forgive last starts effort - racing well prior & Come On Elvis but I just cant trust that horse. I have to mention Rainbow Rain as well, never raced better but likely to be stuck 3 pegs & need a fair bit to go right to win.
Suggested Bet: EW Rays Daughter
Tricky race to start with a few first up from across the border in new stables & others stepping up in grade - plenty of mixed formlines. Rocking Wroxton was a solid win last week after finally managing to find the lead. Might end up in front again & will be thereabouts in a stronger race. Lilbitahenrytee struggles to win but it'll be the problem for Rocking Wroxton early because I reckon it can cross & maybe a question mark tonight whether it hands up or not. Horrie Otara first up for Alby Ashwood from NSW without a trial & it's form in NSW was good enough to win this & Alby can improve them. Beaudacious the other first up in Vic from WA for Frank Mercieca who's team is low flying. Anther going around without a trial & the 2nd row maybe a challenge considering it's best races have been on speed to date. Might be too good anyway? Luvuself I expect to improve from the draw over the sprint distance, as I do Jordie Dee from a soft trip who had excuses last time.
Suggested Bet: None
Race 2: Up to 50 NR
Hard not to be impressed by Hoppers Dream in probably a stronger race last week. She was the one making the 3wide move without cover after an extremely slow first half. Did well to only finish 6.7m from the winner in 4th but some finishing behind her had hard luck stories. Rojenbye franked the Broken Hill form winning last week also. Expecting her to lead these quite comfortably & get her chance but at the same time I have a small query on that race last week. Princess Lil is a danger if Michelle Phillips can put enough pressure on early to find a gap and slot in behind the leader (or even cross). She'll struggle though if she cant find the pegs. The old fella James Charles only needs luck & probably enough speed early to hold leaders back to be a major player also. Risking Have A Crack from the draw.
Suggested Bet: Win No 1 Hoppers Dream
Race 3: NR up to 50 (NEXT BEST)
Miss Twinkle looks the big improver from the draw. She was a strong 2nd to Sanur Beach 2 starts back after handing up & then was good enough after she couldn't lead over the sprint last week. I think she'll cross tonight & be very hard to beat. Should be favourite for mine. Big watch on Courtney Katarina. Hard to have if you watch her run at Ouyen but has followed that up with a nice trial here over the weekend. Could be the improver. Whereyagoinbabe has to lead to be a chance & I doubt that'll be happening here. Same can be said for Fiftyshades Cresco & Lovin Everyday but Alby can light one up from out wide on occasion and the stable is firing. Woody Nightshade struggles to win even more so over the 2190m but could be the knockout if they over do it early.
Suggested Bet: Win No 2 Miss Twinkle
Race 4: Maiden
Tough race! Bowled Gary's run last week out in front was probably good enough to give this a shake, Hanover Jack beat it home & with luck goes very close, Regal Star Im happy to leave out, Havelock was very disappointing from the death last week but as Ive mentioned before, not many can win from the death here, especially maidens. Might have to death seat again though. Shakin Sands was a much better run at Charlton & should get a nice run from the trailing draw - does look unders currently though.
Suggested Bet: Something small on Bowled Gary 1x4 EW - low confidence race
Race 5 NR 51-54
Plenty of chances in this. Robert Crocka gets the distance & draw it loves but this is as strong as it wants it. If they decide to lead, which is likely in what looks to be a slow front line, that maybe his undoing. Glam Rock maybe the one that can spear across and could cause an upset if the lead was there. Frankntank a blackbooker from last week but the draw might be a big problem. Doesnt have great early speed and if pushed can race roughly. Likely to be death seating if it can maintain early or restrained to last. Might have the job ahead from either of those 2 scenarios. Sanur Beach has the inside back row draw & even though down in class will need a ripper drive to salute. Deakin Avenue is flying. Up in grade after an impressive maiden win last time. Wouldn't be surprised if he's winning again. Another blackbooker Isitwrongtobeexcited is the best horse in the race but Im not guiding anyone into a $2.30 fav from outside the back row. Chloe Ann not hopeless especially if they decide to come off the fence early on Sanur Beach. That should get her to leaders back or 3 pegs & a win wouldn't surprise if the runs came late. Yoursnmine & Be A Good Scout chances also!
Suggested Bet: Small play 1x4 Chloe Ann for interest
Race 6 NR 50 to 54
Expecting them to settle fairly quickly after an early burn. Star Shine your likely leader & up in class after having every chance last week Im happy to leave but it'll be in the firing line turning the last corner. I thought Hard Rock Shannon could improve if Alby pushes to the death early & there maybe a 1x1 sit for him mid race. Trebek draws to get a cheap run behind Star Shine, exactly the same run he had when winning here 3 starts ago. Write About Angus was a massive run here 2 starts ago when caught 3 without cover the last lap, only to be nabbed late by Cemetery Bay. Thats very good form for this! Broke at Shep last time so you can forgive that. Might just be too good here even from the draw. Southern Burgundy was a nice win last week but this is harder. Looks unders at $5 for me. Headbanger has been racing well the past few and even though he'll have to work again at some point looks the overs in the race.
Suggested Bet: I think Write About Angus wins but happy to leave it at the price from the draw. Something for interest 1x4 Headbanger at around $20
Race 7 NR54-60
Looks Dont Write Me Off's race to lose even though this is a fair jump up in class. Led & won at this track and distance in March. Its been a strong form race with 3 subsequent winners coming from it. I cant see there being too much pressure mid race unless Midnight Calm goes forward again but doubtful after it dropped out badly from the death last week. They might run the first half ridiculously slow if thats the case & makes the 1 even harder to beat. Strong chances to non winners King Soloman & Toby Ogara if the pace is there & I can see Neds Beach run a cheeky race as it's likely to find leaders back from gate 2.
Suggested Bet: WIN No 1 Dont Write Me Off - I think there will be better odds closer to race time than the $1.9 available currently
Race 8 NR65-80
Hard to see them stopping Thomas Heights. Looks your leader and extremely hard to beat. Cemetery Bay steps up massively in grade after just getting there last week off a soft run - can place. Pocket The Deal is low flying but needs a cold sit to win, I cant see that happening here. Gilty Hanover is the class runner of the race but just not sure where she's at. Rocknroll Ronnie has been racing really well but has the task from the draw. Starvin Marvin could run a cheeky race if he found a cheap pegs run.
Suggested Bet: No bet race although I find it hard not to! Exotics for fun. 4 / 5-6-7 / 1 / Field. Trifecta/F4
Race 9 NR up to 50 (BEST VALUE BET)
Back on Tactfilly Magic even though she's 0 from 18 over the distance. With that said, she's never led over the 2190m and here's her chance to remedy that record. She was a solid 2nd 2 starts back from a backrow draw & then never a hope but finished her race off well again from a poor draw last week. Looks the early leader & there doesnt look to be any midrace pressure outside of Chalkncheddar who's stats are also average over the longer trip. I think he's the main danger along with Bezabomber, another that doesn't win out of turn. Best value of the night for me.
Suggested Bet: WIN No 1 Tactfilly Magic
Race 10 NR up to 47 (Best Roughy)
Vierra looks the one to beat especially if Sam Pascoe can keep him settled and either lead or control the race from the death. It really is a thin race depth wise & the only others I could really entertain would be Squatter Shannon but it'll have to work from the draw or try & outsprint them late in what looks to be a slowly run race on paper. Outta Control has come up big odds. He arguably beats Vierra with a clear run here in early Feb when 2nd & its $2.5 vs $26 tonight! Has had excuses since. Just needs to hold out Pinkie Promise early to be right in the mix. Best roughy of the night
Suggested Bet: 2x3 EW Outta Control
Race 11 NR up to 40
Tricky race to work out at first look. If Another Sparky finds the top I think it's game over & Alby may just work until he does. Michelle Phillips on Mods will be trying her best for that not to happen & even Harry McKinnis may push up although Ryan Sanderson is likely to restrain if it's too hot early. Thats why I think our blackbooker from last week The Mach Army is under the odds at $6.50. Likely to be 3 pegs, maybe 4 pegs. I thought we'd be getting double figures. Maybe he is just going a heap better in the new stable? Id want better odds to find out though. Mista Pumblechook struggles to win like most of these but is racing well and a win wouldn't surprise.
Suggested Bet: Something on The Mach Army if blows out to double figures
Race 12 NR 48-54
Not keen on this race & hopefully I dont need a get out! Bettorzbeach has been racing against better class of horses. First up around here can sort them out pretty quickly especially over 1790m. No thanks at odds on for me. This Is Bill will make the fav work for it. Looks your leader and will keep running them along. Thats going to suit horses like Magic In Her Moves (should like the small field too), Rays Daughter who I could forgive last starts effort - racing well prior & Come On Elvis but I just cant trust that horse. I have to mention Rainbow Rain as well, never raced better but likely to be stuck 3 pegs & need a fair bit to go right to win.
Suggested Bet: EW Rays Daughter
Tuesday, April 5th
BEST BET
Race 5 No 2 Chalkncheddar (PLACE ONLY)
NEXT BEST
Race 12 No 3 Rocking Wroxton (WIN)
BEST ROUGHIES (with low confidence)
Race 10 No 9 Lochster (1x2EW)
Race 11 No 8 Golden Scribe (1x4EW)
Race 5 No 2 Chalkncheddar (PLACE ONLY)
NEXT BEST
Race 12 No 3 Rocking Wroxton (WIN)
BEST ROUGHIES (with low confidence)
Race 10 No 9 Lochster (1x2EW)
Race 11 No 8 Golden Scribe (1x4EW)
Meeting Summary
Race 1
Small field off 3yo's here & very hard to line up the formlines. Monsiuer Steel brings the best form via Jawsoflincoln, Ever Hoping etc & will start very short. Extremely even outside the fav. Missmalachite the one to watch. She did things wrong in her trial last week but wasnt far behind them.
Suggested Bet: None
Race 2:
Real even maiden race. Expecting Bowled Gary to improve but the query is his gate speed. Could get crossed by a few longshots. Hanover Jack would be suited if that scenario played out but its had so many chances to break through. Lets Go Exclusive can fly the gate but the 2190m is the issue if he spends too much energy early. Conrod Rocket was good enough on debut & you'd expect further improvement here from a tricky gate. Havelock had excuses against a much better field at Ouyen & deserves to be favourite. Deaken Avenue was an unlucky 2nd last time off a cushy run 3 pegs. They've found it in the market though & from the bad draw, I'm happy to watch.
Suggested Bet: Maybe a small bet on Havelock for interest.
Race 3
Expecting Lilbitahenrytee to fly out and cross early & hand up to Star Shine or even Miss Twinkle who Ellen Tormey seems to get off the gate better than any other. I'd want to be on whoever crosses, both of those horses are racing well in similar grade. Takidah has been disappointing it's last 2 post a nice win here over this distance in February. Change of stables might fire her up but a mare losing form isn't ideal. Mini Major & Tactfilly Magic's only have wining chance if they go too hard early.
Suggested Bet: Backing either Star Shine or Miss Twinkle in the run if either of those find the front
Race 4
Far too hard this race with too many question marks.
Suggested Bet: None
Race 5 (BEST BET)
Still Truckin (based on NZ form) looks to have a mortgage on this race. The 1 draw may not be ideal but you'd expect it to race through the classes quickly. Overreaction might be a pest early, does have plenty of early gate speed. Robert Crocker draws to get the run it likes over his favourite distance but could be 3 pegs if the fav is crossed & following Overreaction may not be ideal. Southern Burgundy hasn't had much go right since joining the Attard stable & I expect improvement here with luck & Chalkncheddar he's the value play from the draw for a place. Great 2nd behind Yapper at Maryborough & then had a few things go wrong at Ouyen. He's come up a big price here for a horse thats last win was at this track and distance from the death breaking 2minutes.
Suggested Bet: Place bet Chalkncheddar
Race 6
So much speed in this at first glance on paper. Goodtime Maddie will be trying it's hardest to hold from gate 1, Blazin Beauty will be handle bars down trying to cross to get her favourite position in front, Platinum Prince doesnt have the same speed but will build momentum & push forward and Artistic Cowboy must push forward to have any chance. How quickly they settle will be the key to this race. That why I'm happy to waste a few $ on Cemetery Bay. The speed and small field should suit. Great win last time & its follow up trial got a big tick. I wouldve made him the best value of the night if not for the NTD with only 7 runners.
Suggested Bet: 2x3 EW Cemetery Bay
Race 7
A few in form horses stepping up in class here and others dropping back making things a little difficult to line up & I wouldn't be advising to back the fav Isitwrongtobeexcited from the draw, same as the 2nd fav Roll With Ron. Maybe a small play around some longshots. Rainbow Rain has never raced better. Getting good odds because there is speed underneath and where he lands in the run is a ? Neds Beach is the other, 2nd row not ideal but this is a significant drop don in class. If Sanderson manages to find a cheap run, he's a knockout chance. A race with a heap of winning chances.
Suggested Bet: Small play 1x4 Neds Beach & Rainbow Rain
Race 8
The 2 Mildura fast class horses get into this race very well thanks to the conditions, Gilty Hanover & Murranji Track. Gilty Hanover is now 3rd up from a spell & ran ok in the Ouyen Cup last week, beating home Murranji Track but that horse had a few excuses. I dont think there should be as big as gap in the market as there currently is but the advantage maybe with Murranji Track following through a better beginner from the 2nd row. I think the winner comes from those 2. Best drive wins!
Suggested Bet: Win bet Gilty Hanover at around $5.
Race 9
Not a massive fan of the fast class races where there are multiple stable runners. Expect Ozzie Battler to fly the gate, lead & slam the brakes on. That style of run has brought Bernie Winkle undone in the past over the spint. Mailman might be the knock out from leaders back if its a real slow middle half too.
Suggested Bet: Something on Ozzie Battler & Mailman to win for interest
Race 10
As soon as the fields were released I was thinking here comes the double figure value for Rays Daughter but unfortunately not. $4.80 with the TAB currently & I'd suggest thats slightly unders. She's flying though, just needs luck because I'd say Squatter Shannon will lead & wont hand up. That horse looked disappointing at Ouyen but reviewing the race, just went too quick in the middle stages of the race. This is no easier and other horses from that same race ran better. One of those is Magic In Her Moves who just improves lengths with a sit. Not sure what they do from the draw tonight & whilst I think she deserves to be fav, $2.40 TAB is unders for mine. Caulonia Courage keeps racing well but has the job from gate 6, Ive got a question mark on Double O Heaven's Globe Derby form and I couldn't back Come On Elvis. Does plenty wrong. Lochster is the interesting runner. I doubt he can win but was a good enough run for 4th in a similar race last time after 8 weeks off. Again he's back after a month with no trial so maybe there are some issues behind the scenes but assuming he's fitness is ok, $61/$10 is worth wasting some $ on especially over the 2190m
Suggested Bet: 1x2EW Lochster with little confidence
Race 11
Thought Whereyagoinbabe could lead these & maybe improve on it's latest runs but it has been a little disappointing. Northern Terror is a strong horse usually but dropped out 1st up after a soft run. Trialed at Gawler since and was ok but Im happy to leave it out. Ozzie Daybreak would need to improve on what I saw at Ouyen last week. Have A Crack looks really well placed from the draw if the 1 holds. My old mate Golden Scribe wont be hopeless in this. I just really hope they try & take 3 pegs early & hopefully the runs will come late.
Suggested Bet: Backing Have A Crack the win & something 1x4ew Golden Scribe
Race 12 (Next Best)
Taking a bit of a risk here on the assumption that Rock In Heaven will hand up tonight after some poor performances in front. That'll finally give Rocking Wroxton its chance to break its maiden. Its been racing extremely well lately, especially vs similar class. Forget last week in a stronger race. Was a great 2nd prior behind James Charles. They gapped the rest in the race. (Rock In Heaven was tiring at the bell in that race!) Im worried about Mods & Vieira if Rocking Wroxton cant lead but trusting my plentiful gut that I've got the map right on this one.
Suggested Bet: Win Rocking Wroxton
Small field off 3yo's here & very hard to line up the formlines. Monsiuer Steel brings the best form via Jawsoflincoln, Ever Hoping etc & will start very short. Extremely even outside the fav. Missmalachite the one to watch. She did things wrong in her trial last week but wasnt far behind them.
Suggested Bet: None
Race 2:
Real even maiden race. Expecting Bowled Gary to improve but the query is his gate speed. Could get crossed by a few longshots. Hanover Jack would be suited if that scenario played out but its had so many chances to break through. Lets Go Exclusive can fly the gate but the 2190m is the issue if he spends too much energy early. Conrod Rocket was good enough on debut & you'd expect further improvement here from a tricky gate. Havelock had excuses against a much better field at Ouyen & deserves to be favourite. Deaken Avenue was an unlucky 2nd last time off a cushy run 3 pegs. They've found it in the market though & from the bad draw, I'm happy to watch.
Suggested Bet: Maybe a small bet on Havelock for interest.
Race 3
Expecting Lilbitahenrytee to fly out and cross early & hand up to Star Shine or even Miss Twinkle who Ellen Tormey seems to get off the gate better than any other. I'd want to be on whoever crosses, both of those horses are racing well in similar grade. Takidah has been disappointing it's last 2 post a nice win here over this distance in February. Change of stables might fire her up but a mare losing form isn't ideal. Mini Major & Tactfilly Magic's only have wining chance if they go too hard early.
Suggested Bet: Backing either Star Shine or Miss Twinkle in the run if either of those find the front
Race 4
Far too hard this race with too many question marks.
Suggested Bet: None
Race 5 (BEST BET)
Still Truckin (based on NZ form) looks to have a mortgage on this race. The 1 draw may not be ideal but you'd expect it to race through the classes quickly. Overreaction might be a pest early, does have plenty of early gate speed. Robert Crocker draws to get the run it likes over his favourite distance but could be 3 pegs if the fav is crossed & following Overreaction may not be ideal. Southern Burgundy hasn't had much go right since joining the Attard stable & I expect improvement here with luck & Chalkncheddar he's the value play from the draw for a place. Great 2nd behind Yapper at Maryborough & then had a few things go wrong at Ouyen. He's come up a big price here for a horse thats last win was at this track and distance from the death breaking 2minutes.
Suggested Bet: Place bet Chalkncheddar
Race 6
So much speed in this at first glance on paper. Goodtime Maddie will be trying it's hardest to hold from gate 1, Blazin Beauty will be handle bars down trying to cross to get her favourite position in front, Platinum Prince doesnt have the same speed but will build momentum & push forward and Artistic Cowboy must push forward to have any chance. How quickly they settle will be the key to this race. That why I'm happy to waste a few $ on Cemetery Bay. The speed and small field should suit. Great win last time & its follow up trial got a big tick. I wouldve made him the best value of the night if not for the NTD with only 7 runners.
Suggested Bet: 2x3 EW Cemetery Bay
Race 7
A few in form horses stepping up in class here and others dropping back making things a little difficult to line up & I wouldn't be advising to back the fav Isitwrongtobeexcited from the draw, same as the 2nd fav Roll With Ron. Maybe a small play around some longshots. Rainbow Rain has never raced better. Getting good odds because there is speed underneath and where he lands in the run is a ? Neds Beach is the other, 2nd row not ideal but this is a significant drop don in class. If Sanderson manages to find a cheap run, he's a knockout chance. A race with a heap of winning chances.
Suggested Bet: Small play 1x4 Neds Beach & Rainbow Rain
Race 8
The 2 Mildura fast class horses get into this race very well thanks to the conditions, Gilty Hanover & Murranji Track. Gilty Hanover is now 3rd up from a spell & ran ok in the Ouyen Cup last week, beating home Murranji Track but that horse had a few excuses. I dont think there should be as big as gap in the market as there currently is but the advantage maybe with Murranji Track following through a better beginner from the 2nd row. I think the winner comes from those 2. Best drive wins!
Suggested Bet: Win bet Gilty Hanover at around $5.
Race 9
Not a massive fan of the fast class races where there are multiple stable runners. Expect Ozzie Battler to fly the gate, lead & slam the brakes on. That style of run has brought Bernie Winkle undone in the past over the spint. Mailman might be the knock out from leaders back if its a real slow middle half too.
Suggested Bet: Something on Ozzie Battler & Mailman to win for interest
Race 10
As soon as the fields were released I was thinking here comes the double figure value for Rays Daughter but unfortunately not. $4.80 with the TAB currently & I'd suggest thats slightly unders. She's flying though, just needs luck because I'd say Squatter Shannon will lead & wont hand up. That horse looked disappointing at Ouyen but reviewing the race, just went too quick in the middle stages of the race. This is no easier and other horses from that same race ran better. One of those is Magic In Her Moves who just improves lengths with a sit. Not sure what they do from the draw tonight & whilst I think she deserves to be fav, $2.40 TAB is unders for mine. Caulonia Courage keeps racing well but has the job from gate 6, Ive got a question mark on Double O Heaven's Globe Derby form and I couldn't back Come On Elvis. Does plenty wrong. Lochster is the interesting runner. I doubt he can win but was a good enough run for 4th in a similar race last time after 8 weeks off. Again he's back after a month with no trial so maybe there are some issues behind the scenes but assuming he's fitness is ok, $61/$10 is worth wasting some $ on especially over the 2190m
Suggested Bet: 1x2EW Lochster with little confidence
Race 11
Thought Whereyagoinbabe could lead these & maybe improve on it's latest runs but it has been a little disappointing. Northern Terror is a strong horse usually but dropped out 1st up after a soft run. Trialed at Gawler since and was ok but Im happy to leave it out. Ozzie Daybreak would need to improve on what I saw at Ouyen last week. Have A Crack looks really well placed from the draw if the 1 holds. My old mate Golden Scribe wont be hopeless in this. I just really hope they try & take 3 pegs early & hopefully the runs will come late.
Suggested Bet: Backing Have A Crack the win & something 1x4ew Golden Scribe
Race 12 (Next Best)
Taking a bit of a risk here on the assumption that Rock In Heaven will hand up tonight after some poor performances in front. That'll finally give Rocking Wroxton its chance to break its maiden. Its been racing extremely well lately, especially vs similar class. Forget last week in a stronger race. Was a great 2nd prior behind James Charles. They gapped the rest in the race. (Rock In Heaven was tiring at the bell in that race!) Im worried about Mods & Vieira if Rocking Wroxton cant lead but trusting my plentiful gut that I've got the map right on this one.
Suggested Bet: Win Rocking Wroxton
TUESDAY, MARCH 22nd
BEST BET
Race 3 No 2 Jordie Dee
NEXT BEST
Race 5 No 1 Chenoa Princess (PLACE ONLY)
BEST ROUGHY
Race 11 No 7 The Mach Army (1x4EW)
Race 3 No 2 Jordie Dee
NEXT BEST
Race 5 No 1 Chenoa Princess (PLACE ONLY)
BEST ROUGHY
Race 11 No 7 The Mach Army (1x4EW)
MEETING SUMMARY
Race 1
I was close to tipping Shadow Terror here but he’ll be crossed early & I just not sure if Robert Crocka is the right horse to be following over the 2190m.
Woody Nightshade runs bet over the short but could place, Classic Reactor the class runner but is into its right price now from the draw. Rhyflective can win if Robert Crocka handed up to it but I doubt they’ll hand up.
Suggested Bet: Maybe a small play Shadow Terror if he drifts out to $5+
Race 2:
Expect Bobsled Boy to lead & win but Yoursnmine might make it interesting early. Throw Mods into any multiples, it’ll run a cheeky race from the draw.
Suggested Bet: No Bet
BEST BET
Race 3 No 2 Jordie Dee
27 start maiden but only her 2nd run around Mildura. Last week she showed early gate speed but just couldn’t cross the leader & eventual winner. Ended up 1x1 & eventually in the death for the last 600 metres & battled away well for a solid 2nd. It was good time for this class of horse. She’ll improve again off that, I have her leading tonight & a repeat performance of last week wins this race.
Race 4
Good early speed from 3,4 & 5 & they may go a little too quick early. Then expect Loyola Golf & Moneymakinmonkey to try & bet the first ones to race in the death. Should ensure a good tempo throughout. Moneymakinmonkey I blackbooked last week but it’s going to have to work hard again tonight & Im not sure the 2190m is going to suit. (Backed into $5.50 now which I thought was unders) I doubt the lead will be there for Loyola Golf once it does make a move so it’s a risk. If Cobargo Grin finds it’s form it would be right in this but it’s last start run is a worry (50% of its wins are on this track & distance) Chloe Ann will need luck as she’s likely to end up 3 pegs in the run maybe worse. If the runs appear, she’s right in it. Tough race!
Suggested Bet: Something 2 & 7 for fun
NEXT BEST
Race 5 No 1 Chenoa Princess
She’s had 4 starts for Michael Pearce now for a win & 2 placings, only missing the place once after breaking. Thought she could hold out Fifty Shades Cresco early & secure the great run on Miss Social Medias back & give her every hope to finish top 3. The slight query is she’s 2 months between runs without a trial but only has to be close to near what she produced last time to be in the finish. Connor Clark in the cart no disadvantage either!
Suggested Bet: Place No1 Chenoa Princess
Race 6
Another fast front line here that’ll get Luke Humphries frothing at the mouth early. All of them except the 5 are likely to push forward. You’d expect that to suit Write About Angus & he’s the right fav but I’m happy to watch at his first go around Mildura.
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 7
Too many crossed formlines for mine, the more I looked at this race the more I got confused!
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 8
Looks another keen go early with 1,2,,5 pushing hard & the race will be decided on how quickly they settle and slow the pace. Plenty of chances in this & another race I’m happy to watch.
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 9
Expecting improvement from Lovin Everyday after a few ordinary runs over the 2190m – back to the 1790m is her go. Last Artist will push forward and is likely to land the death, if not 1x1. I think Albie Ashwood will suit him as well as he takes a bit of driving to get going. Changingoftheguard was a better run but looks very short in the market. I’d be backing Lorne Beach if he’d drawn better. Gate 6 is a huge negative but with any sort of luck in running a knock out chance. United likely to improve from a better draw & an easier run but another that looks unders. Headbanger needs to show more than he did last week & On Wheels wouldn’t surprise either.
Suggested Bet: Something on Last Artist
Race 10
Another even front row & could be another race where they spend too much petrol early. That’s what Fortitudo needs. Draws to follow through nicely, might end up 1x2/3 & produce his usual honest finish. I think I had hair last time he saluted but he’s racing well and will be thereabouts in another even field
Suggested Bet: 1x4EW Fortitudo with no great confidence
BEST ROUGHY
Race 11 No 7 The Mach Army (1x4EW)
This is a weak old race, many horribly out of form so makes getting the speed map right even more important. I had the 1 leading easily in this race & I thought The Mach Army could push up & hold leaders back. His figure form looks average but I actually marked him as one to follow last week after he was stuck in the death after racing 3 & 4 wide early. This class of horse would usually tail out after that sort of run but he battled away well to only be beaten 11 metres.
I was close to tipping Shadow Terror here but he’ll be crossed early & I just not sure if Robert Crocka is the right horse to be following over the 2190m.
Woody Nightshade runs bet over the short but could place, Classic Reactor the class runner but is into its right price now from the draw. Rhyflective can win if Robert Crocka handed up to it but I doubt they’ll hand up.
Suggested Bet: Maybe a small play Shadow Terror if he drifts out to $5+
Race 2:
Expect Bobsled Boy to lead & win but Yoursnmine might make it interesting early. Throw Mods into any multiples, it’ll run a cheeky race from the draw.
Suggested Bet: No Bet
BEST BET
Race 3 No 2 Jordie Dee
27 start maiden but only her 2nd run around Mildura. Last week she showed early gate speed but just couldn’t cross the leader & eventual winner. Ended up 1x1 & eventually in the death for the last 600 metres & battled away well for a solid 2nd. It was good time for this class of horse. She’ll improve again off that, I have her leading tonight & a repeat performance of last week wins this race.
Race 4
Good early speed from 3,4 & 5 & they may go a little too quick early. Then expect Loyola Golf & Moneymakinmonkey to try & bet the first ones to race in the death. Should ensure a good tempo throughout. Moneymakinmonkey I blackbooked last week but it’s going to have to work hard again tonight & Im not sure the 2190m is going to suit. (Backed into $5.50 now which I thought was unders) I doubt the lead will be there for Loyola Golf once it does make a move so it’s a risk. If Cobargo Grin finds it’s form it would be right in this but it’s last start run is a worry (50% of its wins are on this track & distance) Chloe Ann will need luck as she’s likely to end up 3 pegs in the run maybe worse. If the runs appear, she’s right in it. Tough race!
Suggested Bet: Something 2 & 7 for fun
NEXT BEST
Race 5 No 1 Chenoa Princess
She’s had 4 starts for Michael Pearce now for a win & 2 placings, only missing the place once after breaking. Thought she could hold out Fifty Shades Cresco early & secure the great run on Miss Social Medias back & give her every hope to finish top 3. The slight query is she’s 2 months between runs without a trial but only has to be close to near what she produced last time to be in the finish. Connor Clark in the cart no disadvantage either!
Suggested Bet: Place No1 Chenoa Princess
Race 6
Another fast front line here that’ll get Luke Humphries frothing at the mouth early. All of them except the 5 are likely to push forward. You’d expect that to suit Write About Angus & he’s the right fav but I’m happy to watch at his first go around Mildura.
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 7
Too many crossed formlines for mine, the more I looked at this race the more I got confused!
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 8
Looks another keen go early with 1,2,,5 pushing hard & the race will be decided on how quickly they settle and slow the pace. Plenty of chances in this & another race I’m happy to watch.
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 9
Expecting improvement from Lovin Everyday after a few ordinary runs over the 2190m – back to the 1790m is her go. Last Artist will push forward and is likely to land the death, if not 1x1. I think Albie Ashwood will suit him as well as he takes a bit of driving to get going. Changingoftheguard was a better run but looks very short in the market. I’d be backing Lorne Beach if he’d drawn better. Gate 6 is a huge negative but with any sort of luck in running a knock out chance. United likely to improve from a better draw & an easier run but another that looks unders. Headbanger needs to show more than he did last week & On Wheels wouldn’t surprise either.
Suggested Bet: Something on Last Artist
Race 10
Another even front row & could be another race where they spend too much petrol early. That’s what Fortitudo needs. Draws to follow through nicely, might end up 1x2/3 & produce his usual honest finish. I think I had hair last time he saluted but he’s racing well and will be thereabouts in another even field
Suggested Bet: 1x4EW Fortitudo with no great confidence
BEST ROUGHY
Race 11 No 7 The Mach Army (1x4EW)
This is a weak old race, many horribly out of form so makes getting the speed map right even more important. I had the 1 leading easily in this race & I thought The Mach Army could push up & hold leaders back. His figure form looks average but I actually marked him as one to follow last week after he was stuck in the death after racing 3 & 4 wide early. This class of horse would usually tail out after that sort of run but he battled away well to only be beaten 11 metres.
WEDNESDAY, MARCH 16TH
BEST BET
Race 5 No 7 Von Art
NEXT BEST
Race 11 No 3 Tactfilly Magic
BEST ROUGHY
Race 6 No 2 Goodtime Maddie
1x4EW
Race 5 No 7 Von Art
NEXT BEST
Race 11 No 3 Tactfilly Magic
BEST ROUGHY
Race 6 No 2 Goodtime Maddie
1x4EW
Meeting Summary
Race 1
Lady Bubbles gets her chance but I couldn’t back her at the $2.80. I expect Luvuself to improve and this is weaker than she met last week but the question is where she lands in the run from gate 3. Jordie Dee was a good run at Broken Hill last week but that was from gate 1. Gate 4 here & if she did cross you’d want to be on in the run. Lets Go Exclusive looks like being leaders back – just needs a run late to be in the finish. Hanover Jack has just been too poor his past couple but a win wouldn’t surprise back at his best. Bowled Gary didn’t show enough at the trials for mine, watch only.
Suggested Bet: EW play on Lets Go Exclusive to kick off the night in a low confidence race.
Race 2
Expecting Elizabethan Era to lead them after an early burn & she’s racing better than ever. Im jumping off Shadow Terror but if Jack Laugher did manage to fly the gate & lead like this bloke can, he’ll be mighty hard to catch. Sir Jujon is well travelled & showed zero when racing in Tassy last prep. Comes into this with a slow trial win & I’d rather watch than back him tonight. Robert Crocker looks the main danger to Elizabethan Era especially if the pressure is on early. This is his pet distance. Apache Wind has really dropped off its past 2 but a return to form would see him right in this, especially if 3 pegs, but geeez he’s hard to catch. Ozzie Daybreak was better than what it looks like on paper last week. He’ll be winning this type of race soon it’s just an awful draw for him. To be honest, everything in this race has a chance on best form!
Suggested Bet: No 7 Robert Crocka
Race 3
Not spending too much time on this race. Miss Social Media should be winning & it could be a pegs dominated race if my speed map is right with her leading, Mista Pumblechook leaders back & Stonebridge Star 3 pegs. Blackbooker Last Artist draws poorly & just looks to have too big a job to win this but if something happened to the fav & speed maps were thrown out the window a win wouldn’t surprise – he’s racing well.
Suggested Bet: 5-1-7 tri for more & 5-7-1 tri for less
Race 4
I expect Loyola Golf to fly the gate & lead Ironbark Fella. $1.75 looks very short for a horse that’s been a beaten fav the past 2. Sanur Beach has been real plain its past 2. Maybe it can improve with a quieter drive but it’s a big maybe. Moneymakinmonkey interests. Good 3rd at Globe Derby last start 2nd up. Strips fitter & could be the one swopping over the top of them. The biggest danger to its chances is if they do walk up front but no one better to have in the cart to sum up when to move than Dani Hill.
Suggested Bet: EW No 8 Moneymakinmonkey
Race 5
BEST BET No 7 Von Art
Forget his 1st up run at Mildura when pestered in the lead throughout & his run was much better at Swan Hill last week & potentially cost himself the race when he hung in down the straight behind the inform Beach Time. He’ll follow his main dangers every move Blazin Beauty who’ll no doubt be hard to beat but I think their odds should be the other way around.
Suggested Bet: No 7 Von Art
Saver 1 & 7 Quinella
Race 6
BEST ROUGHY
No 2 Goodtime Maddie
This mare is so consistent, hardly ever runs a bad race. Run a super race from the death around Swan Hill over the short trip when hanging on for 3rd against the same class of horse. Gets a better draw here thx to the mares concession & the extra distance suits. Has a better than 55% placing strike rate over this T & D. We’ve missed the $23 early but she still very backable at $14/3.3
This race is full of chances. Tiddly Winx looks your leader & a repeat of her 2nd 2 starts ago goes very close here. Cemetery Bay has plenty of talent but happy to skip him 1st up as he’s unlikely to lead. Headbanger was a good trial 2nd & looked like he needed that hit out. He could blow these away but happy to stay away and be proven wrong from the draw. Stormont Star will be sneaking runs along the pegs & has to be thrown into multiples. Neds Beach is flying from better draws but can win. Thomas Heights has been impressive leading and winning his past 3 but looks unders from the backrow draw. Toby OGara was probably a little disappointing at Swan Hill, thought he’d finish off better but another in great form.
Suggested Bet: 1x4EW Goodtime Maddie
Race 7
I struggled to find a bet here. Magic Feeling flies the gate and is rightfully fav but not in the red. Trebek chances improve if he can cross the 1 but that’s a 50/50 call on whether he can cross. There are probably a few in this that are better than him though. Rays Daughter looks cherry ripe to run a big race here but she’ll need to work hard to win from the draw & is slightly up in class. Waiting For You, Lorne Beach & Caulonia Courage will enjoy this class.
Suggested Bet: Maybe something small Waiting For You & Lorne Beach at the odds in a tough race
Race 8
No 7 Cullenburn
Was my value bet of the night but the $6.50 is long gone! Nothing wrong with his recent SA form, his latest run a 5th in the Gawler Cup. I think Ellen Tormey will be aggressive enough early to hold leaders back & he showed here in December he can rattle of a quick closing sectionals when beating Bernie Winkle.
$4 now for Sammys Ideal looks tempting. If last week is anything to go by he’ll lead easily. The question mark is on how much pressure do they apply mid race? It may not matter because he showed last week he can roll along and still finish off his race. 1790m looks ideal.
Suggested Bet: Back them both. No 1 & 7
Race 9
Fortitudo hasn’t won for 4 years and is unlikely to if the 1 gets an easy lead so more of a place play but geez he’s racing well. The horse is racing extremely well in this class & I’m hoping the 3 & 5 come out humming early & they spend too much petrol. At $17/3.5 worth wasting a few dollars on to find out in a thin race.
Suggested Bet: Small 1x4EW Fortitudo
Race 10
Tough race! Quite Contrary will likely burn across and lead but holding on is really going to depend on how hard he works early. She aint that strong yet. Deadline loves to find one better than it & its only win came when it led. Wont be leading here. If Tiana is aggressive on Rocknroll Tallara and can hold leaders back shes the value at $10.
Suggested Bet: Small play No 1 Rocknroll Tallara
Race 11
Looks like Tactfilly Magic’s race to lose. Should be leading & have every possible chance. Im struggling to find any dangers if she leads. The only concern might be how hard The Mach Army pushes early as it maybe a pest from the breeze but has restrained from this draw recently.
Suggested Bet: No 3 Tactfilly Magic @ $2+
Race 12
Bobsled Boy won well at Yarra Valley first up for the new camp. Looks your leader and deserved fav. Shelby Grace, Im still trying to figure out why she went so poorly last week but she’ll be better suited maybe tucking in and settling behind the fav early. Hopefully that’ll settle her much better than last week & you’ll see an improved performance. Doesn’t look to be a race that’ll have much pace on after they settle and the others may struggle to get into it.
Suggested Bet: 1x4EW Shelby Grace (One more chance!)
Small straight trifecta play 1-2-3 – Pegs / Pegs / Pegs
FRIDAY, MARCH 4th
BEST BET
Race 9 No 1 Shelby Grace @ $2.50+
NEXT BEST
Race 2 No 4 Shadow Terror @ $2.50+
VALUE
Race 5 No 7 Bettor Star @ $7+ (EW 1x4)
**Odds quoted are my suggested odds as at Thursday afternoon
Race 9 No 1 Shelby Grace @ $2.50+
NEXT BEST
Race 2 No 4 Shadow Terror @ $2.50+
VALUE
Race 5 No 7 Bettor Star @ $7+ (EW 1x4)
**Odds quoted are my suggested odds as at Thursday afternoon
Race 1:
I'll sit this one out and concentrate on the first beer of the weekend.
Blackbookers Engaged
Lets Go Exclusive – Needs a front row draw before I’d consider backing but racing well – placing wouldn’t surprise
-------------------------------------
Race 2
Suggested Bet: WIN No 4 Shadow Terror.
This is the sort of race Shadow Terror races well in and Jack Laugher has been aggressive on him in the past. I think he's your leader & hard to beat. Last time he led at this track & distance they ran a tick over 2 minutes after he was pressured throughout - only beaten 6 metres (beat Golden Scribe by 12m) Looks to be no horses in this race that'll apply pressure mid race either & he could get away with some very cheap sectionals here. Main danger is Stonebridge Star who's likely to be following his every move.
Blackbookers Engaged
Golden Scribe: Undecided whether we follow up with a bet here or not. You have to put faith in Michael Francis to push forward early to see if he can lead & maybe take a sit – it’s a front row void of great speed. If he doesn’t could end up anywhere from the draw (was 3 wide from gate 3 last week before restraining to last) This is a race that’s likely to be extremely slow after they settle and being midfield or beyond at the bell wont be the place to be if they do walk. He's a hard horse to price but with the uncertainty of where he'll be in the run I'd be wanting decent double figure odds to warrant an EW bet
-------------------------------------
Race 3
Found this race real hard to line up. If Luvuself replicates what she produced at the trials on the 20th, shes a chance but just wary it was a very slow trial. Beartasic Writer wont love having the 2 on it's inside. I doubt it can cross but Herby is in the cart. 4 & 6 both fly the gate too & this class of horse cant afford to burn too much early.
Rays Daughter might be worth considering but it was slightly disappointing 1st up. Worth noting it improved significantly when winning 2nd up last time in.
Ozzie Daybreak's trial suggested he's ready but the draw makes it tough
Blackbookers Engaged
Beartastic Writer: Big run last week, Herby stays on & with the right run can definitely win. Id say this race has a bit more depth to it than last week though
The Mach Army: Will need a lot to go right from the draw
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Race 4
Looks like there will be fireworks early here. 3, 4, 5 & 6 are all early speed horses and there's a chance they'll cook themselves over the sprint.
Magic In Her Moves will be suited and just needs to find a way away from the pegs early and similar can be said for Vindicate.
A couple of roughies that maybe worth wasting $5 on are Lorne Beach & my old mate Lochster. Lorne Beach's run wasn't bad last week & probably only had a winning hope in this if drawn to lead but can place if stealing runs late. Lochster is first up after a short break which is a concern but he was running great races mid last year in this grade. I wouldn't be surprised if he knocked them off at big odds if the early fireworks occur.
Should be an interesting race
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Race 5
Suggested Bet: No 7 Bettor Star I’d rather him be out in front setting a solid pacer but draws to follow the leader & likely fav who steps up in grade & distance. This fella races best over the 2190m & you can pretty much ignore his Swan Hill form, just doesn’t seem to produce his best on the bigger track. Hopefully there’s enough pressure on throughout that ensure it’s just a slog home which will suit as he ain’t the fastest sprinter. Great EW play
Blackbookers Engaged
Toby O’Gara: Worried about where it’ll be in the run from this gate with Thomas Heights the easy leader.
Morningstar Gold: Can win, could brain them! Up in grade, bad draw and he's likely to be very short odds but who knows how good he is if put into the race earlier & the longer trip might allow Sam Pascoe to do just that.
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Race 6
Hard to see Roll With Ron losing if he holds but he is 1 from 22! Fine Artist the best performed horse in the race but it's a tricky draw for it & likely have to breeze the entire trip. Not many can around Mildura. Orama might be the best value play if getting $3+ a place.
Blackbookers Engaged
Caulonia Courage: If he could somehow cross the 1 he’s a chance but I think the 1 will hold him. Likely to start unders
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Race 7
These races are usually fairly hard to work out & this gets even harder with a couple 1st up around Mildura especially Motu Premier, he could destroy these but Mildura can do strange things to horse at their first look..
Thought Duke Of Dundee was a good run when 3rd last time over the sprint from the death even though it was just a sprint home. Never missed a place around here & from my eye looks the leader without a great deal of early pressure. Not confident but maybe EW No 3 Duke Of Dundee - more the place than win
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Race 8
Sanur Beach – as stated last week I don’t think the 6 week spell suited and there is probably an argument that he’s a better sit sprinter than leader. If the 1 behaves itself and leads, Sanur Beach will get his chance if he gaps open up in what looks a thin race. Happy to have a bet if we're getting close to $5
Blackbookers Engaged
FiftyShades Cresco: I just don’t think the lead will be there with the 1 & 2 having the necessary speed to hold him out & he’s struggled around here when he cant find the pegs
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Race 9
Suggested Bet: WIN No 1 Shelby Grace – she put together 2 good wins in similar company here in late Jan and just hasn’t had any luck the past 2. Draws to be leading or take the trail on the right horse. Best play of the night for me.
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Race 10
Wemen Bella gets the mare concession & hence the good draw for this & Dani Hill stays on. Won well against a similar class 3 starts ago & followed that up with another grinding win at Port Pirie last week. I don’t think they can cross her early & out in front she’ll get every chance again but we'll probably get the price to match.
Blackbookers Engaged
Princess Lil – from the trials. Was driven far too aggressively at Broken Hill last week & was a tired horse late. She could run a race at odds with an easier run here.
No Emotion – up in class and no hope here
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Race 11
No Suggested Bets – Von Art looks the one to beat – trialed well at Globe behind higher class horses and I dare say he'll have a short quote to match
I'll sit this one out and concentrate on the first beer of the weekend.
Blackbookers Engaged
Lets Go Exclusive – Needs a front row draw before I’d consider backing but racing well – placing wouldn’t surprise
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Race 2
Suggested Bet: WIN No 4 Shadow Terror.
This is the sort of race Shadow Terror races well in and Jack Laugher has been aggressive on him in the past. I think he's your leader & hard to beat. Last time he led at this track & distance they ran a tick over 2 minutes after he was pressured throughout - only beaten 6 metres (beat Golden Scribe by 12m) Looks to be no horses in this race that'll apply pressure mid race either & he could get away with some very cheap sectionals here. Main danger is Stonebridge Star who's likely to be following his every move.
Blackbookers Engaged
Golden Scribe: Undecided whether we follow up with a bet here or not. You have to put faith in Michael Francis to push forward early to see if he can lead & maybe take a sit – it’s a front row void of great speed. If he doesn’t could end up anywhere from the draw (was 3 wide from gate 3 last week before restraining to last) This is a race that’s likely to be extremely slow after they settle and being midfield or beyond at the bell wont be the place to be if they do walk. He's a hard horse to price but with the uncertainty of where he'll be in the run I'd be wanting decent double figure odds to warrant an EW bet
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Race 3
Found this race real hard to line up. If Luvuself replicates what she produced at the trials on the 20th, shes a chance but just wary it was a very slow trial. Beartasic Writer wont love having the 2 on it's inside. I doubt it can cross but Herby is in the cart. 4 & 6 both fly the gate too & this class of horse cant afford to burn too much early.
Rays Daughter might be worth considering but it was slightly disappointing 1st up. Worth noting it improved significantly when winning 2nd up last time in.
Ozzie Daybreak's trial suggested he's ready but the draw makes it tough
Blackbookers Engaged
Beartastic Writer: Big run last week, Herby stays on & with the right run can definitely win. Id say this race has a bit more depth to it than last week though
The Mach Army: Will need a lot to go right from the draw
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Race 4
Looks like there will be fireworks early here. 3, 4, 5 & 6 are all early speed horses and there's a chance they'll cook themselves over the sprint.
Magic In Her Moves will be suited and just needs to find a way away from the pegs early and similar can be said for Vindicate.
A couple of roughies that maybe worth wasting $5 on are Lorne Beach & my old mate Lochster. Lorne Beach's run wasn't bad last week & probably only had a winning hope in this if drawn to lead but can place if stealing runs late. Lochster is first up after a short break which is a concern but he was running great races mid last year in this grade. I wouldn't be surprised if he knocked them off at big odds if the early fireworks occur.
Should be an interesting race
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Race 5
Suggested Bet: No 7 Bettor Star I’d rather him be out in front setting a solid pacer but draws to follow the leader & likely fav who steps up in grade & distance. This fella races best over the 2190m & you can pretty much ignore his Swan Hill form, just doesn’t seem to produce his best on the bigger track. Hopefully there’s enough pressure on throughout that ensure it’s just a slog home which will suit as he ain’t the fastest sprinter. Great EW play
Blackbookers Engaged
Toby O’Gara: Worried about where it’ll be in the run from this gate with Thomas Heights the easy leader.
Morningstar Gold: Can win, could brain them! Up in grade, bad draw and he's likely to be very short odds but who knows how good he is if put into the race earlier & the longer trip might allow Sam Pascoe to do just that.
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Race 6
Hard to see Roll With Ron losing if he holds but he is 1 from 22! Fine Artist the best performed horse in the race but it's a tricky draw for it & likely have to breeze the entire trip. Not many can around Mildura. Orama might be the best value play if getting $3+ a place.
Blackbookers Engaged
Caulonia Courage: If he could somehow cross the 1 he’s a chance but I think the 1 will hold him. Likely to start unders
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Race 7
These races are usually fairly hard to work out & this gets even harder with a couple 1st up around Mildura especially Motu Premier, he could destroy these but Mildura can do strange things to horse at their first look..
Thought Duke Of Dundee was a good run when 3rd last time over the sprint from the death even though it was just a sprint home. Never missed a place around here & from my eye looks the leader without a great deal of early pressure. Not confident but maybe EW No 3 Duke Of Dundee - more the place than win
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Race 8
Sanur Beach – as stated last week I don’t think the 6 week spell suited and there is probably an argument that he’s a better sit sprinter than leader. If the 1 behaves itself and leads, Sanur Beach will get his chance if he gaps open up in what looks a thin race. Happy to have a bet if we're getting close to $5
Blackbookers Engaged
FiftyShades Cresco: I just don’t think the lead will be there with the 1 & 2 having the necessary speed to hold him out & he’s struggled around here when he cant find the pegs
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Race 9
Suggested Bet: WIN No 1 Shelby Grace – she put together 2 good wins in similar company here in late Jan and just hasn’t had any luck the past 2. Draws to be leading or take the trail on the right horse. Best play of the night for me.
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Race 10
Wemen Bella gets the mare concession & hence the good draw for this & Dani Hill stays on. Won well against a similar class 3 starts ago & followed that up with another grinding win at Port Pirie last week. I don’t think they can cross her early & out in front she’ll get every chance again but we'll probably get the price to match.
Blackbookers Engaged
Princess Lil – from the trials. Was driven far too aggressively at Broken Hill last week & was a tired horse late. She could run a race at odds with an easier run here.
No Emotion – up in class and no hope here
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Race 11
No Suggested Bets – Von Art looks the one to beat – trialed well at Globe behind higher class horses and I dare say he'll have a short quote to match
